Man With Beard

And we're in the mild zone!! 11C and feeling very pleasant indeed!

We missed the snow on the coast of course, so I headed inland to see where the snow line was. As expected, it starts at the south downs, about 15 miles inland at Exton. Drove up to 150msl and got the full experience, around 3 inches of snow. Quick snowman with the kids, box ticked for the winter

I can see from reports that there was snow in the night here in Fareham, but no sign of it now.

Currently ARPEGE 18Z is bang on the radar for right now. Harmonie not bad. AROME is miles out. Oh and to add to @kold weather, absolutely, once a strong front is guaranteed then projected precipitation totals are slightly pinch of salt, 20mm forecast could lead to anything 10-30mm, we don't tend to notice with rain but happens all the time. I'm getting pretty confident there will be disruption by the morning on higher routes in the south e.g. A3 Hindhead, and further north as the day goes on.

That is going to be mega over the South Downs. A trip up Old Winchester Hill could be a bit dicey by this time tomorrow!

That was on the south coast 12 hours ago.

Had a look myself, I agree, it looks pretty clear ECM ensembles see the danger zone for Thursday/Friday as between M4 and Pennines (including Wales), could change of course.

This has been one of the most dramatic chases in NW history, and surely if the latest ECM comes off it will have been an epic fail of monstrous proportions for northern areas - the models were looking serious enough for the Met Office to put their earnings on a trajectory to a red warning for Northern England and Southern Scotland... and yet just 36 hours later, the whole lot looks set to fall 200 miles short, with areas previously expecting nothing potentially looking at 48 hours of snow. Wow. But is that it? Are there more twists to come?

Starting to look awesome for you Mike!

What a kick in the teeth it will be if this goes so far north the southern belt gets nothing! When the snow has been modelled to clip the coast in recent years, it's always corrected into the sea. Now the coast is the southern extent of the snow, it's starting to correct north! Good luck in Poole and all others within 5 miles of a coast

Well I did see a bit of sleet around lunchtime, so not impossible we'll see snow even here from this set-up. I note a lot of scepticism in our area (me too!). Maybe it's better that way! If ECM/GFS ops are correct, we should all be enjoying a winter wonderland in around 18 hours time!

I actually haven't checked the models as much today as I feel they have reached the limit of what they can tell us. There continue to be differences of up to 100 miles in the extent of precipitation one way or another at less than T24, which I can't believe is normal but perhaps my memory fails me. I do, however, think it is very likely most places will see some white stuff at some point. Seeing that my area in the Solent is in a weird snow shield that many hi-res models have down for zero snow cover, just seeing snow feels like it would be a bonus! Appreciate others will want more

Yes it'll be a hard pill to swallow if it fails now, less so for me I guess seeing how close I am to the sea, expectations lower

The amount of tooing and froing from the short term hi res models is mind boggling - each run quite different from the one before. Doesn't breed confidence! In fact, I wonder if this is as close as they're going to get - it wouldn't surprise me at all if they're still shifting this much at T6. Lampposts and radar it is!

Not just then, all through the past ten years the best place for snow has been on a boat! Hoping for revenge on Wednesday morning, I can't say I'm too confident though!

Try the GFS 18Z if you can bear any more hope, whole of the island covered.

That's some pretty heavy snow in the south Wednesday night, but weirdly very marginal Wednesday morning - ECM was the other way round. Too many models to follow now! No one has any certainty about anything. If the ICON is to be believed, Scotland could go from armaggedon to zero!

Is there any point in following the ICON when it can go from to in one run?

Amazing for the south coast on Wednesday. A solid belt of snow filling the area south of the M4. But how marginal is it?

Now that's a channel low. Needs framing!

Hello all, so will it really for our region? This Wednesday is the best cross-model agreement on a region-wide snow event we've had since 2018, and now less than 36 hours away. I think it will hit now, however, like others, I fear the marginality. Great for settling in areas 100m plus above sea level, but perhaps non-settling snow below that level? Or will greater intensity pull the snow line closer to sea level?

Btw, we now have another spell of snow gaining in credibility for Saturday, ECM keen on bringing snow back into the Midlands and even south-east parts as the latest front pushes in.

This shows Thursday/Friday event still being too early to call. Changes are still being made to Tuesday/Wednesday.

GFS 12Z has the channel low 5mb deeper for Wednesday and as a result parts of Dorset/Devon/Wiltshire would wake up to a real hammering of snow.

In recent times, I've found the AROME has never been too far off, at least in terms of marginality. That said, big change from 06Z to 12Z in positioning