Man With Beard

Definitely hope for the Cotswold areas yet - I'm downstream from you in Fareham Hampshire, the cloud cleared eventually and the sun's been out a while, popped up to 26C. Although looking at the radar I may be next in line for rain

The ECM mean at D10 gives the trough a bit more chance of reaching the UK, but it's not very convincing and any degree ofbacktracking keeps the UK in the heat. Given it's so far out, and judging by the angle of attack, I'd say a good chance the Atlantic doesn't make it again. However, also the chance of the "summer ruiner" pattern emerging where the UK becomes the jam (i.e. trough) in the sandwich (i.e. heights both north and south).

French imports gathering on the south coast already... things could kick off earlier than expected today

Looks like expanding a bit. Going through a line between Bournemouth and Portsmouth. Could just about clip us both? AROME looking quite severe around Bournemouth tomorrow

I was thinking it was headed for Bournemouth, but it does look to have made a lurch towards the IOW. Will it hold up another hour?

Just seen Arpege, incredible, country wide heat for days. Until yesterday I was thinking "minor" heatwave, but this could become a major one by midweek. And without particularly exceptional upper air temps.

Arome going for 33C at Heathrow tomorrow

Only 16.2C needed for warmest June since 1976 according to Roger's stats on page 1. Odds that this gets beaten must be very good?

It's a pretty ominous sign for the rest of the summer, isn't it? I mean the pressure charts were nothing special today, no huge high over us, no long southerly draw, no days and days of heat building up, weeks away from the peak of summer and yet we're knocking on 90F. Even 10 years ago I'd have thought this was more of an 80F set up. I note there are several days coming up that look equally as hot as today, too. How many 30C days will we get out of June, then? I note we were fractions away from 30C yesterday too with Portmadog at 29.7C.

31.2C Charlwood. What was the date record again?

I managed 30.3 in my garden today in Fareham, I'm usually 1 or 2C above the official - how did you do?

Well I had a garden temperature earlier today of 30.3C, do I win?

We're not a million miles away from a plume on the D10 ECM mean chart? Low west, slight pulse of heights east?

So if the threshold for a heatwave is, say, 27C, then today will probably be the beginning of one, with several spots along the south coast projected to top that figure. There's no certain end to it - over the next week, the UK looks like getting stuck in a bubble of warm air. It looks likely we'll get 7 days out of this as a minimum, but could be longer as the pattern doesn't look particularly mobile. The June CET will be pretty interesting by the end of next week.

It's going to get very brown in the fields of the UK if high pressure sticks around as long as then.

I will obey @damianslaw! 30C under threat daily from Saturday 10th to Saturday 17th on the latest ECM (which is often a little under). That's pretty impressive for so early in the summer and without a proper plume!

I was careful not to say north-easterlies in my post I couldn't be sure, as you've pointed out! Indeed today's charts definitely looking like a warmer form of easterly for all.

Here's the NOAA 8-14. Looks like the high from the UK towards the NW will reestablish, winds from the North Sea likely to continue, Atlantic blocked again. Back to square 1.

Confidence now pretty high we'll see the first high 20s of the year this weekend - 30C may just about be in the envelope but probably the top end. Welcome relief for the south east from the cool murk, at least for a few days!

ECM mean now has its eyes set on something hotter by next weekend: Control run has raw maxes 28-31C for a whole week starting next Saturday.

...and cluster 2 in the D11-15 is just a toned down version of cluster 3. Heatwave potential in both those clusters. We'd be potentially up to 30 consecutive dry and sunny days on the south coast if cluster 3 verified.

Hi all, amazing spell of blocked weather for the time of year, looking like it will go deep into a third week, must be amazing in Ireland right now under the block. The ECM being the ECM, though, looks desperate to get a plume going what with low pressure to the SW. There's actually a 30C near Bristol on this chart (we know that would equate to a little bit more...)

Hello all, well at long last proper spring potential in the charts next week. I love an extreme weather chase and so I'm currently looking at a bit of a long shot - an astonishing 40C looking likely over Spain later in the week, but also a bit of a bend in the Iberian ridge which could potentially, if the trough/ridge interaction catches just right, push the heat northwards. Only a few ensembles give this the time of day but it's not completely out of the question at this moment.

9.6C

The Z500s don't look particularly exciting for warmth next week, but seeing as it will be April, still/dry and sunny conditions can whack up the temperature quite sharpish compared with the winter months, so long as there's not too much long-drawn easterly influence. Am I the first person to suggest we might see a 20C by Easter if anything like the ECM op verifies? They model is putting raw 18C maxes out towards the west country at times, which could definitely be upgraded to a 20C...