Buzz

Oh look, it's raining ........... again. $%$£%*£%% weather! Think I'll have to emigrate ............

I have ............... sleet. 3.3C

Very light rain here - temp: 0.3 Damn warm uppers.

Had a very wee dusting here. Temp: -0.1 and slowly rising.

Is that the 'wishful thinking' forecast?

Increasing cloud is causing the temperature to slowly rise here: now -1.5 (lowest was -1.8 an hour or two ago).

-1.8 here - starting to cloud over, so I doubt it will go much lower (if at all).

The shaded areas (ie with diagonal lines through them) indicate snow. But that's the GEM model - seems to be doing better than GFS of late, so you never know. I would though have more faith in the UKMO and ECM models, but they could well be wrong ......... However, I'm in a gloomy mood today (for various reasons) and I'm still expecting rain, rain and more rain .......... It's still bloody rain for my neck of the woods. But it MAY change ......... and pigs might fly. Still, good luck to all you good people in 'the pink zone'. I wish you all the best.

As for the Sunday alert, I think the MetO are just covering their backs.

Well, i'm feeling throughly despondent about any chances of snow tomorrow in my bit of Wales - some others may get some for a while, but it won't be long before it turns to rain. I feel that a cold, wet and miserable day is in store for us on Saturday.

Very nice. And if you look at the previous 6 hours it starts off as snow too over a fair amount of Wales: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

That's certainly a very positive sign.

The 528 line is just a 'guide' - it's not essential to provide snow. There are assorted variables in the mix, and the 528 line is just one of them. However, the lower the better.

It's a fault on the system - ignore it.

Agreed on all points.

Yup, looking a bit more promising - still needs to be further west though (says I living in the south west) and make the beggar stall. That'll do.

A stall is our best hope - no, I don't think that you're straw-clutching.

Based on the current model output, not really. Best hope that it stalls or doesn't move as far east as currently forecast. A stall over Wales would be best for us (but then central and eastern areas of England would miss out). It's one of those situations where only a portion of people will 'win'.

NAE charts are usually pretty good and are currently showing mostly rain for west Wales at 0600 Saturday: http://www.weatheron...0&ARCHIV=0&WMO= This may change of course ............. I hope so!

Well, having looked at this morning's model runs there has been little (if any) shift westwards for the weekend front. Any snow in Wales is going to turn to rain, and in far western areas will almost certainly start as rain or sleet. We can but hope for a westward shift of a mere 100 miles or so. Also, remember that the models always struggle with this kind of setup - even though they may show the front moving through, it may change on the day. So, three hopes for us: 1) a moderate westward shift in the modelling of the front 2) bit of nowcasting and hoping that even if the models don't show a westwards stall, that it will on the day ............ 3) both of the above.

Exactly. With my IMBY hat on, and despite my 100m elevation, I'd say I'm in a fairly lousy position for any long lasting snow this weekend. Hence why I say the further east you are (and the higher up) the better. But let's see.

I admire your optimism Andy, but let's wait and see - we don't want to get our hopes up given the current very changeable model predictions. And yes, I'd love a good dump of snow, but there's nothing worse than expecting it and it not coming to pass.

Only if the front stalls over us.

So have I, but based on the current synoptics we won't have much of a south easterly (or even southerly) before it turns westerly. Still, it's a few days away and could yet change for the better.

Must admit that I'm not getting good vibes for Wales this weekend regarding snow - the further east you are and the higher up the better, but even then I feel any snow will turn to rain, especially in the west. Still, that feeling is based on the latest model output from the ECM and UKMO and the predictions do keep changing - if the front stalls over Wales then things look better, but even then we really do need a cold feed of air and it looks like we'll be in a westerly by then. The south east of England could do better if the front gets to them, as they could still be in an easterly or south easterly feed.