Buzz

15 All, new balls please. John to serve ..........

Don't you mean Ian B ?

Quite. It's not in any way on its own, which is what a few people earlier were thinking it would be.

They're all bettter .......... for now (now that the latest ECM output is showing them what they want to see).

I was just about to say the same thing - a very nice ECM run has calmed everyone down. They'll be kissing each other's bruises before we know it ......... It always baffles me why so many seemingly mature people let one model run influence their mood so much.

And the model thread's rollercoaster mood takes an upward swing ..........

Thank you, I was just about to post something similar. Not sure why some people insist on jumping the gun when it's been pointed out a number of times that IF it gets particulalarly cold then it's not likely to happen until the latter half of this month, therefore even the 'best' models won't be showing anything yet in the reliable timeframe.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream-tutorial;sess=

Quite. Better still, everyone should read (and re-read!) this earlier message from Ian:

It's too far away to pin a date on it yet - general consensus is any time between mid and late January but it does depend on the model (a few even say early February). Keep watching the models and remember ......... nothing is certain in weather modelling.

From reading some of the posts here, it seems that some people really need to read/re-read Ian Fergusson's post on page 2 of this very thread: http://forum.netweat...20#entry2462809

It's 8 days away Steve - calm down.

And the MetO are ALWAYS right of course ..........

It's a myth - ignore it.

Yeah, same here ............ well, in my mind at least.

Surface moisture levels are irrelevant - snow will settle on wet surfaces if it's cold enough, conversely it will melt on DRY surfaces if it's not cold enough.

I think that you're desperately trying to convince yourself (and others) that it will be mild to avoid any disappointment if the weather turns out that way. I should say at this point that I don't care if it's mild or cold, i just find model watching fascinating. However, as already mentioned, anyone who thinks that what the models are showing 8 days away is 'right' is .......... foolish. Maybe it will be mild. Maybe not. However, uncomfortable as it may be for some, fence sitting is the best option at this stage.

Do you really think that's it's wise to make any kind of prediction for more than 72 hours in the future? Given the ongoing severe fluctuations in the model outputs only a fool would try and predict the weather for Christmas Day and beyond (it's still 8 days away you know).

Given the extremely variable nature of the output of late, are you sure that it's wise to declare "Winter 2012 is over" based on one run from one model that is showing a predicted output that is still nearly two weeks in the future?

The charts are NOT showing 'zonal'. And it's not mild either.

And there's the rub - if they are analysed and snowmageddon is 'predicted' then that's ramping, and as the charts are FI that inevitably leads to the usual gnashing of teeth and throwing toys out of prams from the inexperienced viewers when the NEXT run doesn't show such a snowfest. I just think that it causes more problems in this already unstable thread. All analyses should be confined to within 180 hours (if that). But this is kind of OT so I sincerely apologise to the mods - however, I feel that it IS very relevant to this thread and the various mood swings.

Is it really worth analysing such FI charts? I mean honestly, you and other experts in here discourage others from taking too much notice of FI charts (especially when they are showing mild weather, breakdowns, etc) and now you go and ramp a chart that is 240 hours away and extremely unlikely to verify as shown.

Those wishing to have a whine about the model output are of course entitled to do so .......... but not here. There's a thread just for you:

Aren't you getting just a tad carried away?

For those that want to have a moan about the winter, there's a thread just for you right here: Anyone who wishes to ramp, there's also a thread for you here: