Buzz

Depending on the synoptics at that time, it may still be difficult to say with any certainty what will happen. This is an ever changing situation and many times over the years fronts have been forecast to pass over a frigid UK bringing brief snowfall then rain, only for them to stall. And vice versa of course .........

Looking at the radar, the remains of the front seem to be intensifying - although the eaternmost edge of the band is slipping very, very, VERY slowly south.

1.0c - still snowing, still not bloody settling. What a waste. Edit: Correction, now starting to settle on the grass.

Snowing steadily - not settling. Temp: 1.5C

Snow very light now and still not settling - temp has risen to 1.3 from a minimum of 1.1

Still snowing, not settling, 1.1C Looking at the radar the precipitation seems to be fragmenting a fair bit

Snowing here at last but not settling yet - temp 1.4C

Temp now 2.6 - incredibly slow progress downwards, but at least it's heading in the right direction. Still mostly rain with some sleety blobs.

Hmmm, a few blobs of sleet in the rain now - temp 2.8

From my max today of 3.3 I'm now down to 2.9 - and yes, it's still raining steadily.

Temperature got up to a max of 3.3 about half an hour ago, now very slowly dropping and is now 3.1 Rain steady-ish, as it has been for the past 2 or 3 hours.

For those wanting further confirmation (or as much as can be expected) step through the NAE charts here: http://www.weatheron...0&ARCHIV=0&WMO= Rain won't arrive until the early morning in the west of Wales - it will turn to snow in the central belt and east in the middle of the day, then snow over the bulk of Wales in the afternoon and overnight, maybe fizzling out or turning back to sleet or rain in the west during Monday. However, as with all snow forecasts, this may of course be wrong!

Hold your horses folks, the precipitation isn't even due into the west of Wales until tomorrow morning. Take a look at this: http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec Use the slider bar/arrows to step through the time period 6 hours at a time.

Or install Google Earth and mouse over your location - the elevation will be displayed at the bottom of the window.

In many respects this is a 'nowcasting' situation. The higher you are and the further away from coasts the better, but given that we don't even know the eastwards extent of the front for certain, it's all pretty up in the air (literally!).

Exactly, but it doesn't even need to be heavy - your example would suggest evaporative cooling, but if the snow is light and there is an influx of colder air then even that will settle on a wet surface.

Snow will still stick/pitch/settle if the surface temp is cold enough, ie a wet surface won't cause a problem if the surface temp is low enough.

Depends on your location - as you're in Swansea I would guess it would start as rain then maybe turn to snow late Sunday and overnight. The more inland you are and the higher up the better chances of it starting as snow. So hard to say for sure though as things could of course change. If we're really unlucky the front may push right through west to east and if the wind direction isn't favourable (ie the cold air feed is cut off) any snow MAY turn back to rain. There's a few possibilities right now, but it does look like SOME in Wales will see snow. Best for us is if the front stalls or if it moves south south eastwards.

Well Andy is guaranteed snow (if it gets that far and doesn't get pushed back west) as he's in a prime position. Sounds like he's stocked up and ready for any snowy onslaught.

No worries - look at me, I can't even type (thr = the).

I think that you mean the Eastwards progression. Thr cold is coming from the east, the front from the west then stalling as it moves east.

I believe it's been pointed out before, but there is no point in comparing runs from one model at different times of the day, especially when this comes to the GFS. So DON'T compare the 0z run to the 06z run, etc. You should compare the previous day's 0z run to the current day's 0z run, etc. And as Steve Murr has often pointed out, the most 'reliable' GFS run is the 12z

Not trying to wind you up, but I could swear that yesterday you said the 12z run was the most accurate? Apologies if I'm mis-remembering, didn't get much sleep last night and feel dead tired right now.

No need to analyse every little change as every run WILL be different. Just look at the general pattern and, dare I say it, the 'trend'.

I was just about to say the exact same thing. Things will very likely flip flop for the worse (and maybe even for the better) over the next few days, but if the worst happens (and to avoid excessive sales of Prozac), let's hope people don't get too carried away with these decent runs. Remember, we still have over a week to go, and given the way that the model output has changed recently, it very likely WILL change again, high res output or not.