Buzz

We can but hope.

If you step through the sequence you can unfortunately see that it stays like that: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

Just to "confirm" the above:

I've heard it called a "lazy" wind - it's so named because instead of blowing around you it blows right through.

Can you save some for us snow-starved Carmarthenshire folks please? Some of us are in the firing line after you've had your fill.

Well, after a maximum of -1.0 C today the temp in my neck of the woods is already down to -2.5 C The cold certainly came to pass here, shame about the lack of snow (and lack of potential too bearing in mind my earlier post).

Yes, I'm afraid that the Welsh Government's new state-of-the-art snow shield (based in Carmarthen) appears to be fully functional ...........

Speaking purely from an IMBY point of view, in terms of snow this looks like being a relative non-event for Carmarthenshire, Swansea, etc. I base this on having looked at a hell of a lot of charts and projections today. I just don't feel that's it's going to be anything dramatic or exciting on the snow side. Very worryingly freezing rain looks like being a potential problem on Friday and, let's be honest, what sane person wants to see freezing rain? I've experienced it - it makes all roads and pavements extremely dangerous and readily brings down power and phone lines.

Did you have a look at the explanation that I linked to? Have linked it below. However I do think that the computer models are generalising just a tad too much, surely the "bugger all snow" regions they are showing aren't quite as cut and dry as all that?

There's an explanation for that here:

Thanks very much for that explanation, I wondered why Carmarthenshire etc was in the "bugger all snow" zone from the forthcoming frontal systems. In that case I'll pop my snow shovel back into storage. However, on the back of that, ISTR some major dumpings on south Wales from warm fronts that DID result in copious amounts of snow for the aforementioned "bugger all snow" regions, or was that because those fronts approached from a slightly different direction?

The direction of travel of the front also needs to be taken into consideration - looking at met office fax charts it's approaching from the south/south east therefore it makes sense that south east Wales, etc will take the main brunt (as exhibited by assorted snowfall total maps). The mountains just lap it up. Historic snowfalls in Wales often come in from the south west (or west) but this time it's different due to the the low approaching from the south. It's all rather unusual hence the highly uncertain forecasts.

Very light snow here, TINY flakes!

Weston-super-Mare webcam (Birnbeck pier) currently showing moderate snow: http://www.camsecure.co.uk/birnbeck_pier_webcam.html

Those are quite possibility the most uncertain, sitting on the fence, snow-related (possibly severe) weather warnings that I've ever seen on the met's site. The frequent use of provisos such as "potential", "small chance", "slight chance", "may become", "could occur", etc. Does anyone get the impression that the Met Office are extremely uncertain and are, quite rightly, putting out warnings just to be on the safe side? Whatever happens to those on lower ground or on the coast it does at least look very likely that Andy could be dumped on in a truly spectacular fashion. Edit: the warnings are notable for NOT mentioned rain (or freezing rain) so that possibly bodes well for snow lovers.

It's all very uncertain right now, any affected areas may just have rain (or, worse still, freezing rain). Those on higher ground may do better. Keep watching this forum, that's the best advice - even on Thursday and Friday things could still be fairly uncertain so it will be a "nowcast" event. Today I've managed to see a few bits of dandruff floating in the wind and the temp is now about -0.5 C

Edit update: report starts at 1:42 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09s8g3j and the above quote wasn't strictly accurate, it was just bits and pieces, some injected into the chat by Vine.

Apparently today on Jeremy Vine's Radio 2 lunchtime show, a BBC weather reporter seemed very confident about this Friday's event being "the biggest winter storm for 50 years". Did anyone hear this ? Who was the BBC weather reporter? He/she doesn't write for the Express by some chance?

I'll third that - despite the relatively low traffic to this thread I hope that the mods keep it going on a permanent basis.

Look at it this way - no model (and no person) really knows for sure. Not even the experts. Your guess is as good as anybody's.

It's the thrill of the chase along with the gambling mentality in a lot of people.

The very cold weather hits the east later today, then becoming progressively and very noticeably colder in the whole of the UK over the next few days.

Indeed, but all the more reason to enjoy whatever comes your way Monday to Thursday.

I think the problem that most people have with Weathizard's assessment is that he's saying it's " game over for the south/far south ", he then presents the main models for day 5 as evidence for this. Naturally most people want the cold (and snow) to continue, there is also understandably a certain degree of hope-casting, BUT we need to bear a few things in mind: a) How many times have we seen the models reach a consensus for 5 days hence, only for them to be wrong? Quite a number I'd say, particularly where snow is concerned b) Bearing in mind the timescale and also the added complications of the SSW this leaves the model output even more open to question than usual c) The various model outputs overnight/this morning has already seen some corrections for the less cold air not getting as far north as modeled yesterday d) We're only looking at small changes in the flow and position of the low for the precipitation to fall as snow, even in the far south e) I don't think that we'll have this nailed down even by Thursday, it could well be a now-casting event If Weathizard's assessment wasn't so cut and dry (and accepted that there is room for error) then all would be well.

GFS appears to be gearing up to go along similar lines as the 12Z ECM