Buzz

You're forgetting about the 'Pembrokeshire Dangler' that can hit west Wales in a suitable Northerly.

East? Unless the lows are going the very long way around I think you mean West?

And don't forget the almost inevitable and incredibly annoying use of the word BOOM! ........... Overall though, anyone wanting rain and milder weather should be happy with what's largely being shown for the end of the week (at the moment at least).

And sometimes even 12 hours is too soon for accuracy - just a historical reminder to folks here that back in 1982, a few days after one blizzard in the southwest and with already established sub zero temps another blizzard was forecast a few hours in advance. However, it never occurred, not in the UK at least - the area of low pressure took a last minute dive into France and plastered that area instead. So in this kind of situation be wary of forecasts even a few hours ahead, and I feel that still applies despite today's far more advanced computer modelling.

Over in the MAD thread, seemingly the GFS is the belle of the ball for today as it's showing what the cold and snow lovers want to see, on the other hand the ECM has been kicked into the gutter. I hope those folks aren't so easily swayed when voting in elections.

A pity that these synoptics weren't occurring a month or three ago.

Wintry precipitation charts are often dodgy at the best of times, particularly when the conditions for showery snow are likely to be marginal and still some days away. Ignore them for now and start to take some note about 24 hours prior to whichever day you are planning to look at.

I think the realisation is finally dawning that this cold snap isn't going to be anything special. On the one hand I feel sorry for those who really want snow, but on the other hand ..... roll on Spring! (although it looks like it may be a wet and windy one).

I'm still struggling to see anything particularly exciting happening in terms of snow, especially for low ground in the south. Yes, there might be some wet snow that sticks in places and quickly turns to slush, and no doubt there will be some isolated good spots which do better (especially on high ground) but in the south I don't see any widespread snow event with temps staying well below freezing for days on end and loads of dry powder snow. The north may do better of course, more so any high ground or mountainous areas I had to chuckle at somebody suggesting elsewhere that we're in for another '47 or '63 ........ Firstly those events started earlier in the winter, secondly they went on for months, and thirdly they were much colder and snowier, one more so than the other. People need to remember that it's going to be March starting tomorrow ...... any sun will quickly melt any lying snow unless the temps stay well below freezing. If this was all happening in December, January or February I'd be far more positive about the outcome. For the benefit of those that love snow I hope I'm wrong, but for those that want Spring, increasingly 'warmer' weather, lower heating bills (and of course an easier time for the wildlife) I hope that this colder weather turns out to be a damp squib. Oh yes, and hopefully the irresponsible and self serving gutter press won't make this out to be some kind of weather armageddon and get people into a panic, but I guess they will ......... anything to sell a few more of their tatty rags and get some clicks to sell advertising.

Well it's kind of gone a little in the colder direction today but not by much and only briefly (although of course some people are getting over-excited with the latest ECM output - however, as has been said umpteen times before: 'one model, one run .......'). We can see the general overall pattern, but amounts of cold and snow and any longevity are still up in the air. I suspect it'll be a damp squib, at least for those in the south, but we'll. see.

I suspect that this much awaited 'cold spell' isn't going to be particularly cold, particularly snowy or particularly long-lived for most. Good. Roll on Spring 2023.

And only 12 days away too ...........

In the film Clockwise, John Cleese's character has an apt line: "It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." This kind of sums up the model watching of late ..........

I know, just having a bit of fun because it often seems to be the case that the eye candy is shown for Day 10 ........

'Day 10' is the new 'tomorrow'. I could swear that I saw a very similar 'Day 10' 3 or 4 days ago ...........

As is so often the case, some people are falling into the trap of reading far too much into inter-run variabilities from one model in FI. That way leads to mental anguish, don't do it. Instead look at the 'big picture' and overall trends from all models across all runs.

After a while you learn who the really knowledgeable contributors are, and their posts usually end up copied over to the very useful Model discussion highlights thread here:

Yes - it's not 100% accurate of course because you need to also factor in other weather variables but it's reasonable as a rough guide.

Indeed. To be honest I usually find that these met office forecasts are nonsense - they are regularly 'adjusted' and not worth taking much notice of unless it's for an obvious settled or unsettled spell.

You mean WEST, not EAST.

1st of August ............

Anyone writing off January at the end of December is either a fool, a troll, or possesses a very accurate crystal ball or a time machine.

Unpopular opinion around here but I sincerely hope we don't get much in the way cold weather, simply because of those who can't afford the extortionate heating costs. It's a dire situation for many but, of course, our opinions count for nothing as the weather will do its own thing. Sod's law says we'll end up with the coldest winter in living memory and that will of course be a disaster for many in the country.

I can't help but notice that in recent runs from the main models the push north east of the Azores high keeps getting pushed back a bit - a few days ago its eastern flank was looking fairly well established over us by Saturday, however now that's been pushed back to Monday.

Oh now come on, it's grossly exaggerated posts like this that seriously wind people up. The UK, freezing, with temps of 17 and 18 C ??? Give me a break.