kmanmx

Met Office have their own internal higher resolution models than we have access to, as well as hundreds of experienced scientists. So in their eyes, clearly something has changed. There warnings are based on confidence thresholds too, if yellow requires 50% confidence, maybe their confidence for your area seeing snow dipped just under that confidence interval. Anyway like I said before I wouldn't give up just yet, snow events especially shower based ones (showers are harder to predict) are often updated right down to the 6 to 12 hours preceding them in terms of where it will snow and how much.

Yeah can see it here towards the end of the forecast The way MetO warning work is that while amber and yellow areas can be warned of similar snowfall totals, amber means they are much more confident of those totals occurring in that area wheras in the yellow areas many places within that warning zone will escape with much less snow.

Still 3 days away, plenty of time for MetO to change the warning areas, and it's very likely they will.

@shaky Just watched the MetO forecast on youtube, and they have the heavy precipitation about 50 miles south of where the other models have it, our area in for a direct hit. Just as we hoped would happen ! Of course its about 40 hours away still so lots of time for it to change. But the Met Office have it down is quite likely The timing could actually be quite terrible for me, just as I am driving to work it is due to hit.

Cool, very surprised to see the amber warnings spread inland nicely to cover our area. I'll take it

Yep, still definitely watching and holding my fingers crossed. The good thing is the Met Office on a forecast yesterday said it's basically impossible to say where is going to be hit and where isn't from these easterly showers. They're just too small and localized for the models to pick up on properly. So we're still in with a shout. Whatever happens it will be an interesting week ! I would imagine the amber warnings will be for the eastern coastal counties.

I think Tues/Wed is probably going to be pretty good for those in the northern and northeastern area of the east midlands. Areas like me in Leicester, Northampton, Coventry, Birmingham just too far south or too far west. Those areas would be in with a shot with a small southerly shift, but from my experience I can remember never doing particularly well from these easterly setups. Generally too far inland and a bit far south, not sure what causes the precipitation to so often go towards the north of the region but it seems to be the case. Personally I am not paying any attention to the forecasted heavy snow for friday, and I am bewildered so many people are... i've seen plenty of events predicted at even t+24hr fail to materialize in terms of snow, so watching a snow event 5 days away just seems wild to me! but each to their own. If it does happen, it will be great I guess. That said, we should all see SOME snow at some point next week, even if it's just a single shower with 1 or 2cm. It's bitterly cold, so the snow should stick around for a while. Even with only a little snow it will be fun to enjoy the extreme cold and easterly winds, should be a memorable event to finish off the '17/'18 winter

You gotta laugh at this event for us midlanders

In the model thread there is a lot of talk about the south getting a blizzard and the north and scotland getting a good dumping too, midlands sounds like a good safe ground if you want the least snow over the next week That said, Met Office have still put out warnings including much of midlands, and apparently the models are bad at getting the frequent showers coming in from the NE, so who knows. MetO clearly seem to think they'll make it far enough inland. The obsession in model output thread seems to be around next Fridays low tracking up from France. Frankly, it seems a little wild to be putting so much emphasis on the outputs that far out. Yes I understand the importance of the low surrounding the current cold spell, but the models seem to so often be wrong about things even 48 hours out that looking 6 days ahead is surely not much more than a 50/50 guess at this point in time.

Fine but moderate snow here. Settling on cars, grass etc. Stronger stuff yet to arrive...

East mids have certainly done way better than usual, but considering pretty much all snow events this year so far have come from westerly directions, west mids have got the deeper snow depths thus far overall. Precip tends to weaken as it gets into the east mids especially with the weaker systems though. I'm not complaining though, still the best year I can remember in recent memory.

Buried ? As far as I was aware this was a 1 to 3cm kind of thing... ?

Hey all Been casually watching the weather models this week as I saw there were hints of snow possibilities, now with Sunday looking like a bit of an upgrade (but still a wet wash out by the end of the day more than likely, by the looks of it), but it will be nice to see some good snow falling during in the day while it lasts. Here is hoping for me last minute upgrades tonight

Willoughby Waterleys Yeah can't remember ever having two good events in one winter, let alone 2 weeks apart. Though it's a bit annoying they have both been either while I am on holiday or at the weekend, I want to be snowed in so I can't get to work

What a day... well it was snowing very heavy when I went to bed. Woke up at 6am to the sound of all the power cutting out, great... I look outside, a good 7 or 8cm I think. Though I was super tired so went back to bed til 10am. By the time I got up it had melted considerably, probably half that amount. Anyway still no sign of power 4 hours later. Another 4 hours go by and it's now 2pm, no power. Suddenly I hear helicopters, look out my window, and I can see one and hear another!. It was one of those electricity line inspection helicopters flying in the fields just outside my house, clearly they were still trying to find where the fault had developed. At the same time there was a small fleet of 5 or 6 Wester Power Distribution land rover defenders driving through the village and surrounding fields trying to find the fault. Anyway as of 5 minutes ago the power came back on, so they obviously found it. I got a fairly decent video of the helicopter. Pretty cool. It cuts off abrubtly as the end as I switch to the photo mode to try and get some good snaps too,

I'll let you off, it's appeared now. Epic !!

Sure ? Nothing on the lightning indicator on the radar.. heard nothing here either There is a very loud jet going over though.

Another video, less zoomed so better quality this time

Yep can't remember it snowing this heavy for more than a few minutes before in Leicester. Has been pounding it down for a good hour now, and was moderate through the entire event up til then. It accumulated better a couple weeks back because it was colder and less marginal, but it definitely was not as heavy !

Doesn't look like it's going to stop snowing hard anytime soon judging by the radar...

Well I thought it could not get any heavier, but it has. Probably getting on for an inch here now ontop of cars and walls. Hard to tell because im three floors up though.

Damnnn yeah huge flakes and very very heavy. It's almost wiped out a 2inch deep puddle already, sweet!. Roads are now 95% white over. Settling very well everywhere now. If only it could stay like this for a few hours

Yep just going through that stage now Andy. Infact roads almost white over now. Just took this video. Very heavy snow ! sorry about the image quality.. it was zoomed right in and only using my smartphone.

PPN looks to be intensifying nicely. 23:40 00:10 And should then start sliding SE...

Ahhh finally, it's started to settle on the roads, grass and roofs now. The road is *just* starting to whiten, but you can already see the snow has basically absorbed the water and puddles. Half a centimeter on the grass and elsewhere... and the snow is falling heavier than ever. I think the fun is just beginning in my neck of the woods Not sure about that, it's supposed to snow for another 6 hours in some places.