kmanmx

Sucks to be them, barely even sleet let alone snow. In other news bloody hell my dad is a miserable sod. He likes snow like I do, but he's a negative person. First thing he said to me this morning is "bloody heavy stuff is missing us typical". Im like 1) Not even happy we've already got a good 5cm covering better than most years ? 2) Heavy stuff is supposed to hit us later, not yet. This is bang on what the latest models showed. But he is a bit naieve and ignorant, doesn't look at the models or anything. Just makes (bad) interpretations of radar. Even when I show him the models of what will happen, he comes up with his own "opinion" (completely uneducated on the matter) and just kind of tuts and sighs. Bloody annoying, a right party pooper !

Yes particularly south mids. Snow actually really quite light and fine here, ppn seems to be going further north but dieing off in intensity as it gets up towards and past Leicester. Not seen any actual heavy snowfall yet though. Still, very happy with how its settling building up quite nicely considering it's fairly light.

This is a bloody fantastic event, already the best in 5 years or so for my area. And still so much more to come 5cm or so now i'd say.

Also of note. I am the red dot. NMM depth chart is pretty much bang on for 7am (between 2 to 5cm). Which means 10 to 20cm is looking very likely by close of play Not even too far from the 20 to 30cm zone

Got over an inch now, and heavy stuff isn't due to arrive for 1 or 2 hours according to the models

Only really just started, real heavy stuff yet to arrive - but got around 1cm now.

Can confirm Leics snow shield already blown up here settling nicely even with this light stuff.

Morning all!. Just awoke. Snow here! just a quater centimeter dusting so far. Literally just arrived, but sticking nicely already.

Yes basically does this as far as I can figure out. It is probably less that actual ppn over ireland hitting us, but more it starting to pivot and swing around up into central England.

Nooo you gotta do an all nighter with me

It's not a million miles out. Euro4 Radar Ireland is pretty damn close, but ppn entering england is coming in considerably faster, and a little stronger.

Arpege and Euro4 have done poorly representing the PPN coming in through the SW of England and Wales. Euro4: Radar Quite a bit further north, and more intense in reality. In fact as a whole, the radar just looks stronger than the models suggested. Maybe I am reading it wrong...

Hmm, I see. All I can say is... it's wrong :\ :- never have found the accumulation charts anywhere near accurate.

Snippet from a PhD research paper on mm to cm for snow: The most common or average value of the snow/water ratio is usually considered as 10:1. So, when talking about low density snow (or light snow), that will imply high snow/water ratios, i.e. higher than 10:1. Conversely, high density snow (heavy snow) will be associated with low snow/water ratios, i.e. lower than 10:1. Essentially, wet snow is denser and can weigh 400kg per meter cube, light dry snow (e.g. good cold conditions, not marginal) is 100kg per meter cube. Pure water would be 1000kg per meter cube. So when it's more marginal with wet snow, 10mm of rain would give about 4cm of snow. In not marginal scenarios where the snow is light, 10mm would be 10cm - but apparently it can be even higher, 10mm can be as much as 15cm in some scenarios.

Get out of here with your ridiculous statements ! Netweather forum members know far more!

18z euro4 an upgrade! 12z 18z That's actually the 12z (bottom right of pic), Sometimes weatheronline bugs out a bit and makes you think you're looking at the latest.

Think I might. With any luck, you won't be able to go anywhere come 11am

Hmm yes, though the top image would suggest the heaviest precip is NW of Ireland (brighter green). The current radar doesn't really agree, the stronger stuff is further south. I think it just shows they can't model where the most intense PPN will be that accurately, especially the larger lower resolution models like GFS.

Oh boy here it comes. This is some intense PPN It's perhaps slightly ahead of schedule, but Arpege 18z pretty close in terms of structure etc. PPN might even be a tad more intense than Arpege would suggest ?

Okay I might have to pull an all nighter. I'm too excited.

And 18z Arpege looks very nice for nearly the entire midlands!. Hopefully higher res one out soon.. small pic for now (snippet from europe model) Also I made a program for us all to help decipher whether it was a good snow event or now. var snowdepth; var snowsnowsuccess; if(snowdepth <= 30cm && > 20cm) { for(snowsuccess = 0; snowsnowsuccess <= 10; snowsuccess++) { console.log(snowsuccess + "/10"); } } elseif(snowdepth <= 20cm && > 10cm) { for(snowsuccess = 0; snowsuccess <= 8; snowsuccess++) { console.log(snowsuccess + "/10"); } } elseif(snowdepth <= 10cm && > 5cm) { for(snowsuccess = 0; snowsuccess <= 6; snowsuccess++) { console.log(snowsuccess + "/10"); } } elseif(snowdepth <= 5cm && > 2cm) { for(snowsuccess = 0; snowsuccess <= 3; snowsuccess++) { console.log(snowsuccess + "/10"); } } else { snowsuccess = 0; }

Doesn't mean north of Worcester will have no snow, perhaps just less than south. Could still be significant accumulations north of Worcester, and pretty much all the charts are suggesting this to be the case. Or you know, he could have been told that because someone else has been sent to do north of Worcester.

As an aside, we should not be fussing over 50m swings... frequently seen precipitation fall +/- 50m outside of what charts suggest even at < T6 or < T3... not to mention the models never, ever, model the structure and size of precip perfectly nor it's intensity. They could put out 100 models between now and tomorrow morning and they'd all be slightly different, and all slightly wrong to some extent.

Uhm...That's the Euro4 12z right ? That's better than both the 06z and 00z Euro4 before it. And still showing a good covering for majority of Midlands. "Ouch" ????

It's a bit worse for the northern most of midlands than the prediction 24 to 48 hours ago. But not write off. GFS, EURO4, NMM, Arpege,Met Office still good for majority of midlands. Think some members being overly pessimistic, or interpreting charts wrong. Odd.