kmanmx

Up to t78 the 18z is pretty similar to the 12z considering it's the sunday pub run. Expected wild changes and instead got only some very mild changes. That's a good thing I suppose, perhaps it's already nailed it pretty much. edit: Starting to see some more significant changes in 850 temps on the 18z come t90. It's an upgrade mind you. Yey.

Looking at the model thread I get the impression this impending cold spell is easier to forecast than the last one we had. MetO warnings out for Wed/Thurs already in Scotland, and there seems to be a reasonable level of agreement between models too.

Haha.. I suspect we will see a lot of this. Fun times !

Nice to see potential for more snow Though lets not get ahead of ourselves. This is 4 or 5 days away. As far as predicting snow is concerned, it may as well be 3 months away. Still there certainly looks to be potential. As we all know that last snow event was uprgaded on the morning of the event only to be downgraded 6 hours later. It's just so hard to forecast. So there are going to be plenty of upgrades and downgrades right up to T6. So if it's a marginal event (like normal) it's probably worth sticking around till the last minute and certainly not writing it off days in advance. (and on the flipside - or getting too excited for loads of snow, for that matter)

PPN just seems to be growing from nowhere just north of Leicester for the past hour. Consistent moderate sleety snow here.

Nothing here. Just wet. Can I just say that the NMM did pretty well. It seemed pretty accurate with it's distribution of rain, sleet and snow and also with the location and PPN intensity. So wrong side of marginal for probably the 1000th time. I'd just love, for once, to see a non marginal event. -2c outside, -10c uppers etc. Good solid snow that settles immediately. Yawnnnn

Nope. It snowed very heavy for half an hour here but just refused to settle on anything but car windows. Our roads arn't even gritted or anything, right out in the country.

Okay so what the actually heck is going on. My roof is -0.5c, measured with highly accurate thermometer. And yet water is rolling down and off the sheets of slate. Some serious voodoo magic here guys. You know you are in the Midlands when snow can't settle on sub zero surfaces. The only place I can see anything settling is car windscreens.

Willoughby waterleys. I don't even think the snow is wet. (though there is plenty of dripping going on and puddles outside). A snowflake hit the end of my temperature probe and it immediately dropped to -2.5c. Should cool the roads pretty quickly you would think and allow it to settle... yet no signs of settling yet. Can't be long though with it this heavy. Really is it settling ? I'm about 5 miles from you and it is not settling. Heavy yes, but not settling yet. Roads are very wet.

Very heavy snow here. Interestingly not huge flakes, perhaps 20p size but absolutely tonnes of them. Arn't the flakes usually huge in marginal situations ? I thought smaller flakes meant it was colder/less marginal..

Pretty much similar levels for here, certainly not 1 to 2 feet !

Think temp might be dropping ? Gone from 1.3c to 1.2c, obviously only a tiny amount but it's certainly not getting warmer.

Wet snow here so not settling. Such a shame we always seem to be just on the wrong side of marginal. Would be nice to see snow when it's below freezing with cold uppers atleast once in my life Also noticed MetO now have upped the temperature for me by 1c for the entire course of the snow event, from 1c to 2c.

It's arrived like 2 hours early, so it's literally begun before it's even begun..! No way I am writing anything off yet.

Snowing here ! Temp has rose to 1.5c though

I believe this is the case.

Anyone else think these temps make it unlikely to be rain ? I mean it's 0.9c here and dropping. If it gets to 0.5c, surely that'd be pretty unlucky to see snow. I know it's not impossible as 2meter tempertures are one of many factors, but still...

Nope, that has nothing to do with us.

Essentially yes it expands/spreads and somewhat stalls and then in about 4 or 5 hours another band of ppn from the SW comes along and merges, if the NMM is on the money anyway. And it certainly looks accurate so far compared to the radar. More accurate than EURO4 atleast. Though it's got everything arriving about 2 or 3 hours behind where it really is.

Yes PPN does seem to have arrived earlier. Looks to hit my area in 2 or 3 hours, which is a few hours early. Unless it slows down it's eastward march.

Just imagine how much weaker it will be by the time it reaches us in east mids I still have my hopes up though, despite what MetO are saying about rain. I am hanging my expensive reference grade calibrated food thermometer out the window as we speak to get an accurate temperature

Noticed the MetO have downgraded their warnings to 2-5cm for most particularly above 150m, and those towards south of the warning area are likely to see rain at some point.

Yup. Basically, very central England e.g Leicester/Notts/Northampton gets the weaker stuff from all directions. Other than very south, has to be one of the worst places in the UK for frequent accumulating snowfall.

Pretty sure West Mids nearly always does better than East (bar peak district). Most systems that arrives from the west dies out the further it gets towards east mids

Annoying thing living in East Mids is I have to sit here for hours watching all your westerners talk about snow before it arrives/fizzles out in Leicestershire