kmanmx

Probably why not update from MetO. Still a lot of disagreement between models.

MetO must know something we don't. I guess their UKV / METO model is coming to a very different conclusion to the GFS. Waiting for an update from Ian F.

Only slightly negative is it looks like -4 to -5 850 temps win out come about 3am Wednesday which could cause marginality. Could do with them being 2c colder. According to the Model thread the latest thing they have heard out of the MetO this morning is they think it's going to be an all rain event apart from high hills which will see snow. They basically disagree entirely with the GFS.

How did you come to that conclusion ?

18z was an upgrade, 00z was different but not really a downgrade, 06z was an upgrade. The trend would suggest more upgrades. But I know what you mean, these things often fall at the last hurdle. We can only hope and stay positive though Snowfest for all!

Muahahhahaha. Incredible. If that's accurate, i'll cry happy tears come Wednesday. Lets see what 12z brings. If we start to see the same kind of accumulations consistently on the 12z and 18z then we are in for a lot of fun. Within range for METOs UKV model too so i'd expect warnings to go out today.

Looks good for Leicester. Could do with the dark green spot shifting 20 miles south east though for absolute Leicester perfection. Then again that kind of detail will never be accurate even at T6. That'll just come down to nowcasting.

Snow depths look quite a lot better.... Do you think it looks less marginal than the 00z ? Or am I just imagining it

06z looks like an upgrade in terms of snow amount for midlands. Midlands still the sweetspot too. Perhaps slightly less marginal if i'm looking at it right... Not sure if the 850 temps are much better, still looking. They look 'different', better or not i'm not sure. Need an expert to weigh in!

Personally I like to be optimistic but cautious.. have been hurt way too many times when it comes to snow!

I don't know why people think the 00z is a total failure. It's a slight downgrade on the 18z (Which is nearly always the case, 00z is rarely an upgrade on 18z from my experience), it's now a bit more marginal and intensity is a little less. But it's still got the Midlands down for quite a bit of snow. We are still in the sweet spot. Hoping for another upgrade on the 06z that removes some of the marginality. edit: Another positive is we should expect the track/location to be fairly well nailed now. Id be surprised to see a large change in location of main band of PPN. Anything can happen though I guess.

Good boost of confidence if Steve Murr is saying mids is a good spot. Though it's still two days away, so a lot could change. Very well could be a "map 3". Exciting stuff though ! Looking forward to seeing what the 00z and 06z brings. I might ignore the 00z as it always seems to downgrade the 18z

Now if we fast forward 95 years into the future and saw that chart again, I might actually be confident of it coming off

Is the MetO hourly forecast based off the GFS ? Has just occured to me that intensity and time wise, the MetO hourly forecast for the Wednesday snow event ties in perfectly with what the 18z GFS charts are saying.

Fergieweather has said they do not have enough confidence on PPN location/amount yet. Warnings will go out tomorrow if they become more confident. It really is an amazing run for midlands. It's at about T60 so you would expect it to be relatively accurate. Unfortunately this week has shown that it's most likely not the case. To be honest I still expect significant changes on every run right up to the 18z on Tuesday. I'd chop my little toe off for this run to come off as accurate

I keep looking at different charts on the 18z GFS and it's bringing a tear to my eye

I really wish I could bank this GFS run and make it happen. I'd imagine this is about as good a run as we're likely to get for our location. Can't see there being any further upgrades for us. Maybe upgrades in general, but i'd be amazed if they were upgrades with regards to snow amounts for the midlands. Pub run GFS has certainly delivered. edit: If i'm looking at this right 18z GFS has the band of PPN arriving in the midlands around 00 to 03am on Wednesday morning, it then stays over us for 18 hours. Woah.

Haha. If only it was accurate. It had me down for 3 hours of light snow on saturday, but I didn't see a single flake. And that was at about t6

I'm just going to leave this here.

Shush shush shush! It will play out exactly as you said originally.. 10 to 15cm. Hehe. But seriously, while i'd love you to be correct, i'd be surprised if you were (no offense). I'm not doubting your meteorological skills, but Leicesters snow shield is incredible. I've seen unconfirmed statistics that it can fend up snow with intensities up to 20cm/hour... Hahaha. Probably a more realistic outlook than the Met Office can come up with.

Someone said this in the model thread. "Sweet spots (anything up to 10cm showing though with caveat of optimistic 10:1 ratio) - N Hamps, Berks, Bucks, E Oxf, Northants, in to Leices/Notts" I'll take that

Yes UKMO does look decent. Also MetO have me down for light rain from 7pm to 9pm. Trying to figure out where that comes from, can't see anything due to hit us on the radar.

Well that precip missed Leicester so no surprise there. 12z GFS also has snow missing midlands in general. So overall everything is going as expected You have to laugh Still plenty of time for things to change though. Hopefully pub run will be better!

Yup - most did very well. Would be nice to see it again this winter. With the upcoming cold even there is always the possibility... not likely, but possible. Excited to see what it brings.

A foot !? I didn't do very well out of either 2010 or 2013 from what I remember. The most I saw on the ground was about 6 maybe 7cm. I remember the torturous radar watching as my village just south of Leicester would line itself up between a small gap in the middle of two huge bands of snow