kmanmx

Haha wow I thought there would be no more snow. Just looked at the radar, panicked, ran to the window... sweet sweet heavy snow falling and settling

Well that's fairly close to us I guess if you look at it with rose tinted glasses. Anyway it's a total nowcasting situation so whatever.

Very hard to forecast Polar Lows, and very hard to predict track. So they won't have known it was coming long before hand, nor do they know exactly where it will track. Very much a developing situation.

Im confused, what does he mean by NE ? Surely the North West would be impacted by this rather than the North East ? Or does he mean NE areas of west country.. Exciting thing to watch that is for sure.

Just had an almost blizzard like shower here. It was starting to settle by the end of it on some surfaces. Didn't last long enough otherwise. The winds were strong and very cold, made a little video just uploading now

Oddly EURO4 is having none of that stream for 3am friday... Total disagreement with NMM and GFS on one side and EURO4 on the other.

Yup. NMM has it too albeit slightly further south. Basically the track in reality could be 50 maybe even up to 100 miles north or south of this. Won't know til it arrives. I think i'll stay up to watch the radar on this one

GFS 12z for 00 to 03am Friday looks really juicy for Derby/Notts maybe even Leicester if it's a little further south. Would love to see this appear on the radar later...

Saw that. Do hope so. And I hope the track delivers for us too.

Just had a heavy graupel shower.

Some light to moderate snow here now finally. Nice to see, but it'll only last a few minutes. edit: Yep it lasted all of 2 minutes And judging by radar thats our lot, atleast for now. Hoping for more later tonight

*North Leicester Sun here in south Leicestershire. Seen this happen about 3 times now.

I know It's kind of funny that some people are still moaning that west mids has it bad. The bulk of the PPN doesn't even reach our area the majority of time, it's pretty much all out of steam when it gets here. That's if it hasn't been eradicated by our world class snow shield edit: Uh so it looks like something is just about to hit Leicester, but it's North Leicester again, bone dry here. Blue skys and sun. I can see the dark ominous clouds in the distance, which is somewhat torturous...

Don't worry Andy Leicester snow shield is at 100% operational functionality.As you can see, no problem diverting the snow north and south of here. I have yet to see a flake

Don't worry I have the exact same thing. Light clouds and blue sky above me, but just 5 or 10 miles north of here I can see dark PPN clouds over the whole of Leicester.

That new weather warning covers most of the mislands and the south east, they are clearly expecting some form of PPN to have no issue travelling not just into the midlands but all the way through the country and out the otherside.

That's really weird. Why two seperate warnings issued so close to each other. Are they caused by seperate systems or something ? Confused.. On the plus side, "1 to 2 cm may settle almost anywhere, especially from late afternoon and into Thursday evening." Yey!

On the positive side it's a lovely sunny, crisp cold winters day here. So that's a positive !

Nice to see the MetO warning come within about 5 miles of me But it pretty much says it'll turn to rain and sleet later. They have been right the past few times when it comes to calling rain and sleet unfortunately. I'm not expecting any lying snow from this. I'd be really happy to just see a half centimeter covering, but I am very much doubtful of even that.

I know there is no point looking at EURO4 any more as these showers are going to appear anywhere really. But the 18z has pretty much reversed the 12z northward shift. It's nudged it back further south again. Just shows you should take every output with a pinch of salt even at this timeframe. Anyway back to radar watching edit: Okay so the NMM has one nice looking streamer for early hours Friday. Likely to be very marginal though, probably rain/sleet. If it was snow though it would deliver very nicely. Before the streamer arrives though there is really quite a lot of nice PPN coming right through the midlands. I'm trying to not get caught up looking at this because I know it's pointless - but I really hope it looks like this on the radar when I wake up tomorrow morning !

Too far east, too far south, too far west. We (Leics/Cov/Northampton etc) get the weak stuff off pretty much any setup. Just how it is i'm afraid. We're okay if it's a big band of PPN but showers more often than not end up like this.

PPN dieing out as it gets towards Leicester Can confirm that weather is working correctly

Reminds me of an event a few years ago where PPN just grow out of nowhere over the midlands and stalled above us, it gave us some good snow. At least I think I remember it... maybe it was a dream My memory is not great but i'm pretty sure it really happened. The important point was it was not forecast at all.

Just to reiterate this point for everyone getting hung up on model outputs. NMM 12z of 7pm today Radar as of 7pm today As you can see it's not even close, and that's about at T6 on the NMM.

How do you come to that conclusion ? PPN is coming from the west. But yes EURO4 is a downgrade as others have said. I prefer NMM so will see what that says.