kmanmx
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Everything posted by kmanmx
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Pretty sure another band appears later today. Actually I might be getting confused.. can't remember now.
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Is there anypoint looking at GFS in this time frame ? Surely won't be as accurate as the high res models
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I'm guessing the meto's UKV has modelled the ppn as snow rather than rain, hence the BBC forecast. I am quite confident in them being right at this time frame. Question is do I take the risk of staying up late to watch the snow with the hope it's too bad to drive to work in the morning If I get it wrong i'm going to be REAL tired! Exciting times folks, I think some beer and pizza will be in order for this evening. Screw the fact I have work tomorrow.
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If anything I expect it to be the usual case of the PPN fizzling out over wales and west mids before it reaches here. Tends to happen on nearly all these kind of setups with ppn arriving from the west.
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From what i've noticed they normally issue warnings late morning i.e. 10 or 11am, after the 06z GFS/METO has came out I presume. I'm not sure what we will see accumulation wise. But i'm pretty confident we will see some good snowfall at some point at least. Possibly washed away by rain at some point but some snow is better than no snow! I am still hoping for upgrades as we get closer though.
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Night all. I'll pray for upgrades in my sleep
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Yes EURO4 doesn't even have the precipitation reaching into the west midlands much let alone east midlands. It looks odd to me. Just a hunch but I think EURO4 has got it totally wrong with regards to how far east the PPN gets. I have nothing to back this up with and don't really know what i'm talking about, other than the fact it just doesn't look right nor does it tally up with NMM and GFS.
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Just me or has EURO4 underplayed precipitation volume across ireland ? Compared the current radar image to the 18z EURO4 and the EURO4 has the PPN volume covering much less of ireland than it is in reality. Current radar V 18z EURO4: Where are you viewing the NMM ? It's still on the 12z on Netweathers viewer.
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Just need the trend to continue. As others have said, GFS not high enough resolution for accurate PPN distribution at this timescale. Maybe best to just ignore now and concentrate on EURO4 and NMM as you said.
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18z is perhaps a slight upgrade from what I can tell. PPN seems to last a little longer, only a couple of hours or so maybe. Also perhaps a slight eastward shift if i'm seeing it properly. Need more experienced members to advise.
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Good sign ! I'm just going to try and remain positive. PPN is coming. It's winter. It's cold enough to snow. It could therefor snow. Happy days ! (though I still want the 18z to be an upgrade).
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I've only seen one frame but already the PPN band looks a tad larger and more intense. Clutching at straws here, but it's a good start edit: Seen two frames now. Can confirm trend continues from frame 1 haha.
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I wish I was a multi billionaire. I'd build a high resolution model with 72hours output and a resolution down to 100m. It would also issue a new run every hour, free for anybody to see and do with it what they like. It'd cost probably £10Bn for a supercomputer that powerful. On the plus side i'd have a slightly higher chance of knowing whether there will be 0.5cm or 1cm of snow falling in Leicester
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All we can do is pin our hopes on the NMM and EURO4, and perhaps a good 18z pub run from the GFS.
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I think who ever is plugging the data into that model has just cottoned on to the same info MetO have, as that would align with MetO thinking not much is going to happen. You are right about it being untrustworthy though. That's a radical change especially at this time frame.
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12z GFS looks like a downgrade so far. Less precipitation and more mix of rain and snow. edit: Okay so yeah quite a large downgrade Less PPN, more rain/sleet, and it's over much quicker.
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Yes crazy, but no harm done. Just a bit of fun for everybody. After all it is a weather forum, if no one posted anything till the event actually arrived, it'd be a bit boring!
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Eagerly awaiting the 12z. Will be interesting to see if the GFS changes it's tune.
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Classic. Half a billion pounds worth of world class supercomputer and there is still significant uncertainty 24 hours away. Does make me chuckle. I understand the complexities though in reality.
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Well MetO have issued alerts but only for Scotland. So either they're confident our area doesn't need a warning, or they're still not confident enough with location/accumulations yet to give out warnings for here.
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When was a snow event ever not marginal in the midlands though I can't remember the last time I had lots of snow that was a guarantee with -8c uppers and below zero ground and air temps. Being on the right side of marginality can often give great snowfalls.
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According to NMM4 we get a dusting of very light showers, at best.
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Well to be fair I used it the other day on Saturday. And even at T3 it looked totally different to the radar. So I don't really trust it.
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Yup. I just have a bad feeling the GFS 06z has got it all wrong. EURO4 is showing a weaker band of PPN I believe. Not sure what MetO is showing. Interested to see the 06z NMM too but not updated yet. edit: Actually 06z NMM4 is out... it's not good.
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Yeah that's true. But generally speaking, colder the better.
