legritter
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Posts posted by legritter
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Still some good interest towards the end of tonights ECM Run but we are only seeing these charts at the far range ,ecm on its last frame but one seems to throw the high at us shouting Take this modellers thats all your getting from me .but certainly looking at all modelled predictions in northern Hemisphere theres a lot going on so i think any modell would be struggling at this stage .But taking the last 3 frames of ECM it wouldnt take much adjusting if of course its there for a good blast .So we can only wait for overnight runs for hopefully an upgrade .PS its brass monkey weather out now and its only nov 22nd ,?
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Some very interesting posts and thanks for all the input from posters .the modells are Hinting at a change in later output and perhaps the next couple of days will show some firming up of this .going to try my hand at posting some charts soon but still trying to master my new windows 8 .It realy is a Minefield trying to compare historical charts with present synoptic situation but i suppose History does repeat itself occasionally .roll on GFS sometimes this run can pull off a big change past 216 hrs ,but concistancy is what we should be looking at with back up from other models ,so the hunt is on yet again with winter proper starting soon .
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Certainly some signs today of a movement south of some cold air perhaps next weekend or just after .this afternoons GFS run could show some tantalising runs ,but current charts on modells keeping us with high pressure for some time yet .im sure come early december we could be seeing a pattern change of sorts .so still plenty of interest in the modells to keep us occupied .
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Well towards the end of the GFS run i find some encouraging signs but at this stage plenty more runs of GFS are needed to see if a pattern emerges .tonights ECM could give us a clue as to whats possibly in the far outlook .so pressure staying high and i expect at this stage to see the end of november still with quiet weather .looking at gfs at around the 12 day range the vortex to our far north is showing a weakness ,Thats my big straw at the moment ,perhaps the models will give us coldies some cheer soon .And 13 wks of winter to come .
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Possibly this area of precipitaton could move into this area but on many occasions these set ups do tend to break up ,but we should know within hour or so ,possible sleety mix for some ,unless we get lucky ,certainly feeling chilly when out with dog an hour ago .
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Some strong gusts now at 10.45 am ,if you look on radar it should get very lively soon as a line of very hvy rain crosses us over next two hrs .then any showers later today could give us some sleet perhaps but not banking on it .interesting all the same .
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Things could all change by tomorrow ,we could even see a brilliant coldie run from GFS in an hours time and tonights runs could pull something out of the bag ,Two weeks ahead forecasting is one hell of a gamble ,we dont know what mother nature is cooking up, way up in our upper atmosphere .we have the science but its only in its infancy ,looking at current models and data suggests to me nothing is set in stone , some very constructive Posts as you would expect on our TOP forum ,but also some frustration showing on others ,lets look forward to this winter and all learn together
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FROSTY you could squeeze a snow flake from a full blown azores high ,but i think Models are struggling at the moment .it wouldnt surprise me once the high pressure sets in it will hang around a while so the far outlook could change dramatically over say two runs .ECM is still showing some good charts and i expect plenty of changes over coming days ,as always exciting .
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Yes looking towards the start of next week it would only need a slight shift in current predicted charts for something more meaty to turn up .im very happy with tonights charts as i feel from a coldies view we could be knocking on the door of something more wintry .it will always be frustrating stuff getting to an ideal synoptic situation especially in this day and age with all our technology ,Will it ,Wont it ,will it Backtrack or upgrade ,which modell is performing well ,did someone feed the wrong data in ,Pacific ridge ,solar flares etc etc .all good practice for when winter proper arrives soon .ps sorry off topic but why is there no list of posters at bottom of page or is it because of my new windows 8 ,cheers
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Fantastic ,nail biting model watching with plenty to discuss and plenty of things to learn especially for any new members .iv been watching and enjoying the forum but not posted much as i feel i cant realy add much untill now .going by current output certainly cold over coming week or so , i will be concentrating on runs out to about 168 hrs max especially IF in a weeks time we finish up with a possible real cold spell [as some data is indicating ]so many synoptic possibilitys could develope once any real cold sets up ,especialy if atlantic lows from the s west get involved or a good easterly sets up ,looking forward to this evenings runs to put a bit more Bite to the outlook .and new posters dont forget those fax charts ,and always expect the unexpected and a bumpy ride .
Bring it on .-
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We are all blessed with so much data ,charts, being able to get meteorological information at the click of a mouse .fantastic advances have been made over the past years BUT past that 7 day 168 hrs everything then starts to get very complicated .every single chart we see is subject to error .some of my best snowfalls in 2010 only showed up on fax charts 24 hrs out ,i am fairly confident with the extended outlook staying on the cold side and todays charts by tomorrow could be back on the side of cold lovers .i do like the last 3 frames of ECM tonight ,could be wrong or could be right ,but they are showing for a reason and could very easily disappear and pop up again in a few days .And today is Mid November so gang remember another two weeks of autumn then we have 282 modell runs of ECM and MET OFFICE and double GFS so plenty of nail biting times to come .I personally think the weather in northern Hemisphere is about to get interesting and tricky ,so hang on in there and lets enjoy .I always expect the unexpected in our science and that helps me overcome those prozack feelings ,,could be an interesting 120hr FAX this evening ,take care all
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I just think at the moment GFS is trying to get to grips with something which is a bit out of sorts in our area ,perhaps later frames may show what some of us are looking for .tonights ECM i feel far more important and UK MET as well .going by other data and met office it does in my opinion look like high pressure will finish up to our north or n/west .in this type of set up i would expect wobbles but we all know how things can change so keep prams tidy and straws at the ready ,but enjoy the ride .
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Evening all ,what a good model run and the first one viewed on my new computer wind 8 .cold weather fans must be over the moon,but we must stay in control as we know it could all be gone in a flash later in the far outlook .but certainly a good start .i would say looking at current charts many with a bit of elevation and luck could do well after late next tuesday .Fax charts will be our best quide for finer detail as each day will present new features with cold air coming across warm sea s .certainly an unusual set up for now ,may it continue .tonights ECM came as a surprise as i clicked on last frames first ,old computer in retirement ,take care and lets enjoy that crisp sharp arctic air .
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Morning all ,very interesting modells yet again ,i will be back later .putting this computer in attick for retirement ,new windows 8 in box ,a bit sad as its my first and introduced me to NET WEATHER .THE BEST SITE ON THE INTERNET ,will catch you all up ,i hope for tonights epic[ we hope ]modell runs ,cheers everyone .
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As i said earlier i dont go by every single run ,but taking all modells over a period of a couple of days and also listening to the professionals in what they say on their extended outlook .i say listen to the professionals simply because they have access to more extended outlook information than us on Net weather do ,yes we can discuss the modells and we have some very knowledgeable Members among us .as for GFS 4runs per day so we will see a big variation in its outputs .we have a fantastic forum ,have a look at others in northern hemisphere we are blessed with ex met and very talented posters .roll on later modell runs what will they show ,but whatever enjoy and have your say and ask those questions ,catch up later .
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Is this a dancing forum ,todays SUN is affecting our moods .Right Modells ,this mornings runs not quite so exciting as last nights but still showing an eventual area of low pressure possibly moving S/EAST over us next week .there after at this range high pressure most probably but no guarantees situated to our west or n/west or settling down over us ,i would say beyond that at this range will as usuall be frustrating ,as other posters have said Its still autumn so lets not set the Bar to high .also remember the cold can arrive very quickly if we get the right synoptics .as far as any particular modell VS another i always look over the course of a couple of days ,try and read between the lines ,look at Met office daily updates and always expect disappointments along the way .So in summary a change of fortunes is fairly on the cards but no guarantees just yet .anyhow im going for a tango down the village and a quick fox trot at the local .
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I just cant keep this bottled up anymore ,i think by about 19/20 th november a fairly major change in our fortunes could be taking place .iv looked at charts and data read other forums looked at canadian forums etc etc so for once im gonna stick my kneck out and say i think some form of block could set up ,early days yet and positioning will be critical ,i know this isnt that scientific but i can feel it in my water ,iv got the straws ready and prozack is in the cupboard, if it doesnt materialise i will throw my toys at the dog ,chears gang
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Possibilitys still there for a colder shot but still only showing towards the end runs ,so at this range a fair chance of a pressure rise but locations of any high still far from sorted .
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Modells are very interesting to watch as SNOWMADSAM says and good learning at the moment with plenty of options open .we just need to remember this in 10 days time when or if a cold shot comes off .but pressure out to our west does seem to want to rise substantially but its positioning will be critical for us in good old uk .theres plenty of time for the pole to get some good cold in and besides it does not take long for deep cold to set up if we get the right positioning of pressure and besides if you have a look around the northern hemisphere theres some impressive low temp in one or two places .some meaty highs also setting up all looks good in my opinion but remember good things take time 39/40 46/47 and remember juicy charts sometimes disappear but reappear ,all very complex but thats the modells for you ,never ending trillions of trillions of info from all over the globe which for a split second in time is stopped in its tracks for a forecast ,so thats why its good sometimes to look at it over a period of days and compare ,and of course to discuss it here on a very lively and dedicated forum ,Lamps at the ready
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Wow GFS is in its winter warm up mode .certainly plenty of action in far out runs and do you see POPEYE the sailor man in Northern Hemisphere H500 chart at 384 Hrs ,to nights other runs will soon be out could be interesting .And the list of users getting bigger by the hour ,all good stuff ,catch up later .
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Just had a gander at charts and Data ,interesting times coming im sure ,and reading some of the posts i get that feeling the prams are starting to rock, the PRozack is coming out the medicine cupboard ,and razor blades are being sharpened .but lets not get to excited ,lets have some more runs of the modells and get some good looking cold charts all within 6/7 days and of course all singing in harmony .patience is the key as we dont know whats looming during the coming 13 weeks of winter but we do know the following ,282 Runs of the big modells 564 Runs of our friend GFS And thousands of postage size Ensembles and of course our own gut instincts .[weather]your a coldy or a mildy interesting days ahead , im looking forward to the Chase and of course tonights modell discussion ,Bring it on
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Hang on in there coldies ,we all know how long it takes for charts to come into the reliable ,the signs are there .ok it can all go pear shape but im confidently looking forward to future runs ,modells are not crystall balls and what COULD be actually happening 10 Days from now wont present itself for a few more runs yet .things take time ,let things Mature and be prepared for let downs ,we dont know whats looming but what we have at the moment is a possible start of a PRESSURE CHANGE .for those who like it mild it might be your luck for us coldies it could be our turn .i say interesting times ahead .
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Certainly looking good if your after a possible cold shot .we have gone from the last frame of ECM showing cold to last couple now hinting the same .every run is interesting but tonights could be especially so .certainly something of a change in my opinion is possible in about a week or so .lets sit back gang and enjoy the ride yet again .
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Yes certainly some of the later charts are showing promise today . just need some upgrades bit by bit each day untill they come into the more reliable range .but for now autumn is the king but knights in winter armour are on the way to do battle .what a tease ECM is, everything juicy as been at the end of its runs now for a while so will it start to firm up this weekend ,Fingers crossed .
Bring it on .
Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
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The only glimmer of hope as far as i can see on Models is around the 192 mark on ECM today .as this is just over a week away ,from a coldies perspective there is room for improvement come further runs . but it is looking like a high pressure dominated spell and we need some low pressure moving into mid atlantic or a break up of the vortex ,only crumb of comfort at the moment is its still autumn and 13 weeks of winter to come .And present set up on balance should swing the other way but no guarantees just yet .perhaps tonights runs can give us a shot .