legritter
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Posts posted by legritter
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Hi Gang ,well i have sort of put any cold spell snap etc to hopefully appear around 10 days time ,hopefully by then pressure over the pole will be pushing towards us .you can see this gradually taking shape on some of the far outlook charts etc .but i do find it so frustrating that all mouthwatering charts appear to be always the last few frames .well winter as so far pulled of a major weather event around our shores this last 6 weeks or so ,so not boring mild mush but very lively mild mushy .we need v cold snowy mush me old mush so come on Models lets start seeing those mega frames at 120/144 hrs and get a move on ,PLEASE .
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Shows the human input of the chief forecaster, the Met are quite clearly going with the 'block' holding more to our N/NE, that fax chart is pretty nice considering the GFS at the same time. I know this gets said every winter really but there really is an extreme level of uncertainty at the moment and I think the models are going to struggle for the time being, theres lots of complicated PROJECTED weather patterns going on around the NH within the next 10 days or so. Nothing to be overly depressed about, nor excited about but you can tell this thread is full of people frustrated by a rubbish, let down winter so far.
Understandable I guess, but I still think something is around the corner with the projected NH pattern we'd be exceptionally unlucky to miss out for the entire winter, chins up chumps.
yes some very interesting weather is possibly on its way for the n /hemisphere lets hope we can build on current long range output ,bring it on i say ,Stellas all round .
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Iv just taken a good look at current charts and Data and also taken into account the met office update about a week ago concerning colder conditions possible and seeing we have high pressure pushing down from the pole on the ECM later frames ,iv allowed myself a clutch from my box of straws .certainly very interesting synoptics possible and plenty to keep us interested ,nothing boring in the outlook with signs of pressure rising across the pole ,and the atlantic still remaining mobile ,lets hope it can be a lethal combination Cheers all .
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The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.
The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.
Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage on February being talked about for some years.
I Feel February will be a Newsworthy month ,but for what reason is still in the dark .so interesting times and some good model watching ,cheers all
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Rain coming down hard now ,the last two hrs radar showing steady rain but hardly anything falling or atleast not reaching the ground ,some interesting shower activity on its way so thunder on the menu gang ,lets have it now as we wont be getting any this summer nutty weather but iv a feeling its going to get a whole lot interesting ,cheers gang
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Ok the Fat lady is lurking out there but will she get any bigger ,if she hangs around long enough she will get bigger ,fat and frigid and hopefully turn into a sausage A GOOD Day for the models A Week in Meteorology is currently an eternity ,Some good posts tonight on the best forum .
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I just cant stop pondering over the big upgrade earlier this week and then gone with the wind next .but is this possibly how cold snowy spells gradually creep up on you .the computer models latched onto something for a reason .things possibly now taking shape to our east and north east and if cold gets established it would only take little tweeks to bring home what us coldies want .all eyes now on the next main runs later today and tomorrow ,Let the battle commence Hopefully ,cheers all .
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Yes would not be surprised to see a potential flooding risk setting up again .and something to take note of ,those cold charts of two days ago were Modeled by Ecm GEM and GFS for a while ,they certainly latched on to something and could quite easily again .So some interesting model watching coming up folks .
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The middle of next week is realy a hard call lets say late wed early thursday .there is every possibility of disruptive rains over a good portion of the uk ,and with most probably with colder uppers trying to push in from the n /east a forecasters nightmare could present it self .so i find todays Met update about right for looking at that range ,tomorrow and this weekend could present the forecasters with a totally different set of model options ,its all about being patient as every day will see a change .the met office are in control of themselves where as Express will get it right from time to time .Great posts today on a very interesting forum .cheers .
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looking with one eye from behind sofa ,tonights runs will be told to me via the dog ,two wags high over scandy rising 3 wags pulling away south ,a good day modellers we just need consistancy not stella runs .so with anything realy wintry at the 6/7 day range expect down grades and upgrades but if its there for us i expect a big upgrade from Met office update tomorrow .
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A good Ecm run tonight ,but still early days ,granted i would like to see the high a little further n /west but at the 8/10 day range a lot could change in our favour or against .its a big change so lets be patient and see what the next few days bring ,take it met of chart not out yet ,cheers .
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Taken at face value heavy driving snow away from windward coasts north of England and inland East Anglia northwards. However at this range this could change so calm down!!!
we are moving in the right direction but caution needed ,slowly slowly does it .-
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Just shot out of bed with an overhead storm ,goodmorning .yes signs of high pressure to our east n/east at days 8/10 ish getting it right at this range is fairly hard ,the horizon beyond this is realy cloudy with ifs and possibilitys ,But good signs for colder solutions at present so still all to play for .back to bed eagerly await todays SAGA cHEERS .
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ECM delivers the goods at T190hrs. GFS starts the day with wrist-slitting fodder before backtracking then finishing up with a near hurricane that would plunge most of the UK into a Waterworld-style scenario with only Kevin Costner and a few oddly dressed extras for company.
I think it's fair to say the models are struggling.
Ithink if we look across all models plus the long range met office update the future is very interesting with possibly newsworthy weather to take us to the end of January .Colder air to our possibly east or n /east and an atlantic still breathing .but the end of this Month is 3 weeks away so no model as far as i know would have a clue , of course met office are touting a possible cold spell at the end of this month probably going by their research involving upper atmosphere with new computer etc .So we need some good upgrades over coming days to go with tonights better charts .
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Not much wrong with this from the GEM, heights to North East, Low heading South East, allowing clod to push in from the NE.
CLOD followed by snod ,yes a good chart .
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Darren Bett who was doing the week ahead forecast on BBC 1 said turning colder next weekend at the end of the forecast just before 13:15 how cold who knows but confidence must be growing at Exeter now for a change next weekend
Friends in Poland just eee mailed me ,they are expecting frigid temp to set in round about the 13th .
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YES nose of the next lot approaching cornwall ,very bright echo ,but as usual track wont be that clear for a few hrs yet .but certainly looks like an interesting night ,and again just after first light tomorrow ,will be interesting to see what wind strenghs will be between 6am and mid day tomorrow ,could prove spectacular if winds coinside with high tide ,Stay safe folk and keep your distance ,dont forget one litre of water weighs about a Kilo so imagine one big wave ,i usually deal in pounds so hope im right .cheers all .
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Rather complex weather system moving into southern UK by the morning, just developing into SW England as I type, this rainstorm moving across S-UK and then up to northern areas, the most prolonged and largest rainfall totals as being indicated over southern areas topping up through Saturday (today) the concern of such large rainfall totals here possibly 25mm that's about an inch widespread with more than this over some areas, the data I use is indicating central South and the SE seeing some of the highest totals,
NAE 0000-0600hrs
this shows the heavy rain moving in overnight and by morning really set in,
0300-0900hrs, very much alot of rain shown here..
0900-1500hrs,
Large totals being collected over the western side of Scotland too, as being indicated here, other models really debating position of the largest rainfall totals today, so most places at risk but it's S-UK and W-Scotland on NAE here that is indicating where the biggest deluges today could be.
I have done the map and highlighted these areas as orange, the yellow being the risk zone for heavy rain/totals today.
Some areas of Wales and NW England have large totals being indicated here, my maps are made
combining model data using overlays, for example a few ppn models rather then a solo are showing quite a lot of rain for parts of the south increasing the chances of the event happening? so I combine the chances/risk of the event taking place this way and so = probability% +risk of flooding due to saturated ground/drainage problems = risk.. I'm working on the maps!
I also if possible update the maps as radar and other data comes in, it could be that other areas are highlighted orange!
I like to put the yellow for 12mm+ accumulated rain/ppn during saturated ground
Heavy rainfall and surface Flooding - Saturday 4 January 2014 - ESSthanks for info electric snow storm ,some fun and games starting to show up in s west approaches now ,looks like interesting 24/36 hrs to come
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certainly looks like a very interesting evening and night to come with some intense downpours hail and thunder gusty winds and a similar spell tomorrow ,as usual certain areas will miss some of the action but certainly wild .things them calm down a bit but expect a few surprise weather systems to pop up over this week .then looking into the far outlook colder air hopefully getting pulled into the mix Mullender 83 type of weather hopefully as he.s away so be prepared ,Sausage sandwich brown sauce and a swift half cheers gang ,back edge of this system coming through soon ,but on satelite showers out west gathering ,please keep up excelent posts on this brilliant Forum .
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Yes we need to keep our shoes firmly on the ground us coldies ,but some good signs creeping into the Models now .as i said ,if a big pattern change is out there i still expect swings of the main models ,so something of interest ,but next36 hrs could be very interesting .BUT good things sometimes takes time .catch up with you all later after tonights runs ,cheers .
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Well a good pub run for eventuall zonal,but it will all change again tomorrow no doubt .still think something is out there ,patience required [HURRY UP PLEASE ]
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Best news today is the MOGREPS increasingly cold signal and there continues to be plenty of cold and wintry solutions sprinkled throughout the GEFS 12z perturbations, some real corkers here and the 12z mean is still trending colder, especially later in the run. The way I currently see it, we are heading towards either a cold and unsettled outlook with lows sliding down from the north west with trough disruption occuring and the jet digging well south or we will see height rises to the east / north east with a scandi high and increasingly cold continental flow which would bring lots of sharp frosts and a growing chance of snow..I think there is growing evidence supporting a colder outlook with snow potential.
Dear Frosty ,i will hold you to this ,yes some good looking charts at longer range ,lets hope tomorrow continues as today ends ,
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no its not an old wives tail .if we are in a cold pattern say high pressure somewhere to our north and its mainly dry what happens is low pressure exiting the states moves across the atlantic and can bring snow if it moves close to the uk ,but it does not happen very often ,you need the right weather patterns especially the jet aligned right .Im feeling a bit more upbeat tonight lets hope something is a lurking out there perhaps at day 10/11 .cheers .just would add that i meant weather system rather than any wintry element making it across the atlantic ,cheers .Hi all, forgive my total lack of knowledge here, but just wondering about the Ice storm hitting NY and Canada. What is the possibility of that weather coming our way - even as more rain? Doesn't it often follow that what they get we get a week later - or is that an old wives tale??Many thanks, Woody-
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Another area of rain now showing up s /west of southern ireland on satelite now .this front is shown tonight to move east then s/east so not sure yet on exact areas to be affected but looks like s west england perhaps getting as far north as bristol ,certainly one to watch .tomorrows systems probably adding a good 25 mm of rain with hvy showers to follow monday and possibility of steady rain tues and wed ,beyond that hard to call at this time .Take care out there everyone as flooding could get worse over coming days ,
Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Isee very good signs in the models today .But its going to require patience and hopefully something as the end game .if its out there it will be a slow process but we need some maturity in any cold source ,lets wait gang ,discuss and take each chart and enjoy and crack open some STellas .
