legritter
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Posts posted by legritter
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Hang on posters the roller coaster starts tonight .very pleased with tonights runs and will be even more so if tomorrows keeps going in the same direction .But alas caution is needed if its out there expect swings from day today but wait to see what is indicated over say two runs .also met office daily updates for those clues in the charts we dont get to see .perhaps mother nature as just been waiting for our kneck of the woods .but good signs without a doubt .
WHERE,SFrosty with those STellas .-
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There are so many things out there that need to change before we get some realy good shots for us coldies .But Data and models and Met office are Hinting so we are i feel in with a chance .perhaps we just creep along for a while with this zonal hell then all the Models start singing together ,lets hope it starts with tonights runs ,
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Top posts this afternoon from Draztik, Carinthian and Snowking, thanks!
Well it's amazing how long-term model viewers could be as pessimistic as optimistic about the 00/06Z charts! When I posted at 4.50am this morning I was particularly pleased with the northerly height rises suggested by the UKMO as, like some, I see it as the one model you want on your side if its HLB you are after. Clearly seeing the ECM not coming up with anything particularly wintery has dampened the enthusiasm of some.
But I think there is a different trend to keep an eye on now; the GFS 00Z and 06Z (along with control run) have all shown a further rise in pressure towards Iceland at around 12th January and, with the Polar Vortex having been a little weakened by then, this pressure rise seems more likely to hold. The eventual result may differ - the 00Z produced an Icelandic High (great for cold), the 06Z led to a Scandinavian High (possibly fantastic for cold) and the 06Z control run ended with a UK High (cold but not snowy). But its the consistency that is starting to get my attention. I will be watching this closely over the next couple of days to see if it gets picked up by the ECM and if the trend firms up more.
I find pattern changes often happen like this - one attempt to change the pattern is closely followed by another - and sometimes it takes two attempts to break it. Encouraging signs coming from some other models too. So January is far from a lost cause as things stand. The real cold-chasing game, I feel, is about to begin.
A good sign ,we i feel are starting to see a possible stop to this zonal Slaughter ,realy hope to see some beefing up of the charts and hopefully all models singing together .and its great that we have plenty of winter left .
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not much here on west mendip ,had some moderate showers earlier with gusty winds ,looks like this afternoon early evening could get interesting ,and possibly some very hvy rain sat morning ,then more sun/mon ,stay safe .
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rain here not so hvy so far ,but gusty last hour ,expecting some hvy downpours tomorrow ,take care out there tonight , hvy rain now hitting windows .
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If your going to watch the storm and high tides [DO IT FROM A DISTANCE ]Plenty of warnings have been given If your going for fun forget it ,water is heavy and just a small wave hitting could easily knock you off your feet .i would say if you are there for fun and have to get rescued you should fit the bill ,Take care out there .[/quote ill probably be parked on coast rd for some big spray and 2 or three ft of water around me , but ill be in a jcb !!!.....
Good idea ,it is an attraction and nature at its most awesom ,KEY WORDS ALL TAKE CARE ,JCB s COULD COME IN HANDY WHEN OUR SNOW ARRIVES ,Cheers .
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If you live on the west coast get down to the beach at high tide because you'll likely not see it as high for a long time, it will probably be over the small Whitehaven pier something I've never witnessed and there'll be probably some more structural damage and the town centre might even flood.
If your going to watch the storm and high tides [DO IT FROM A DISTANCE ]Plenty of warnings have been given If your going for fun forget it ,water is heavy and just a small wave hitting could easily knock you off your feet .i would say if you are there for fun and have to get rescued you should fit the bill ,Take care out there .
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Indeed CHM, the lack or Eurasian snow cover is already a concern and if things pan out as progged we may not have much low level snow lying west of the Urals come mid month!! Clearly the continent will cool down considerably quicker once we change the airmass, but any initial Beasterly is likely to be more gums than teeth...
My ex mother inlaw was all gums but boy could she bite . as far as weather Models the zonal train continues but some signs on horizon of a cooling down eventually .just a hunch but i think this afternoons GFS could give us some cheer after 268 hrs as pressure possibly rises out east ,fingers crossed ,cheers all . -
There is overwhelming support for a potential colder blast later next week from the GEFS 12z perturbations once the low pushes to the northeast, supported by mid-atlantic ridging which may become more robust and hold up the atlantic juggernaut for a while, the pattern looks more amplified than it has looked previously in the T+168 hours timeframe so perhaps we have a chance of wintry showers and frosts towards the end of next week, maybe even some snow
fROSTY YOUR A STAR ,Crack open a stella ,sit down and relax and watch those STella runs come later this week ,Happy new year to all on Netweather .
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Well at least we have the possibility of some colder conditions in the further modeled outlook .And bearing in mind that the middle of January is 15 days away its whats beyond that which at the moment is realy hard to predict even with supercomputers .I would like to say what a fantastic year weatherwise its been and a great treat every day to see so many Informative posts a great learning forum THE BEST ,a good new year to all my fellow posters and Cheers ,STELLAS all round .
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Good afternoon all fellow posters .Well models and Data currently shows hardly any let up in our stormy and wet end of the year ,with plenty more atlantic weather to come for at least the next 8/10days .Im half expecting a sudden change in the far outlook given chatter across many weather channels and info taken from the web ,lets hope this is the case but patience i think will be needed as any possible SSW etc could take some time to affect current conditions .Long range forecasting beyond two weeks is so hard to achieve even with todays super Computers .Just take todays monthly outlook that could change suddenly come this week so i have found an alternative machine to find out the general pattern ONE Month from now its called the TARDIS .unless you want to rely on CFS ,Certainly not boring weather ,roll on tonights runs ,cheers gang .
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Evening all ,Mullender 83 as a 500 w spot light ,good idea i had one last year but now 250 one they are good for catching those magical snow flakes as our street lighting goes off at midnight .drove across the mendip highway today lovely frost in shady places we had a good white one here on west mendip .well winds picking up outside but looks like the rain will creep in later my best estimate probably 9pm ish .as for our further outlook ,windy wet for a while but hopefully some colder air eventually being brought further south to our shores .plenty of winter left ,cheers all and a wonderfull new year to all my fellow posters .
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Lets all club together and send Mullender Ski ing then we can enjoy some snow ,i saw plenty of bumble bees yesterday .a fantastic hail storm and a partridge in a pear tree ,cheeers gang .
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Still signs in the Models of colder air gradually feeding in over the UK in later charts .And with high pressure setting up over N/WEST russia a real worry as fronts and troughs stall or slow down possibly over us .But at this stage flooding becomes a real worry ,what happens out past 9/10 days in my opinion is not yet modeled so from a coldies wish list lets hope a block to our north /east sets up .All in all i feel some possible chances out there .
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I think there are some good signs in the models and Data in the further outlook today .if not deep cold maybe v cold zonal which we all know can deliver giving good synoptics .im not going to preach on looking too far ahead but we all know the score .the top guns [MET OFFICE ]will only put pen to paper if they see plenty of evidence in their models and Data we dont get to see ,so its a case of reading any updates and picking out certain key quotes etc .the trouble is at the say Ten /Twelve day range they might very well have good signs on a specific pattern but what is around the next corner at the 12/16 day range ,ever changing data in a Science which is not Exact .So certainly with 9 ish weeks of winter left plus March its still GAME ON Pour yourself a DRINK ,If your weather is severe wind and floods you have Hit the jackpot this coming week or so .cheers gang
ECM on the way . -
It's my very first post on a weather forum anywhere in the world. Everyone with their superior knowledge on here makes me feel so dumb and I haven't had the guts to post before. So forgive me if I ask a stupid question, like whatever happened to the new mini ice age and the slowing of the jet stream? This winter has been an atlantic onslaught and the trees in my garden are starting to bud. Which of the models predicted this MILD stormy early winter and which one has been performing best with the modelling of these storms? We really could do with some cold, I saw a wasp in my cat's dinner bowl and it's December.
Welcome Lassie 23 ,weather will somewhere balance itself out ,but no guarantee when ,but we are in a very interesting Mode currently .Yes we had big bumble bees , bulbs coming up Moths galore ,but that could all go in a flash ,enjoy our forum and post we are all in it together to enjoy ,cheers .
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ECM 32 holding firm with the Westerly pattern right through to the end of January, to go along with the Susan Powell comments on boxing day that there are no signs of anything particularly cold for the next month. I also noticed that there were some eye candy ensemble members wheeled out last night, always a bad sign if its cold your looking for.
This mornings ECM is a horror show for cold and I thought that was what we were hoping the gfs would be trending too....
In a nutshell, you can have all the HLB you like, but until the Azores high moves away it ain't gonna do much good.
i,ll take the possibility of the ecm and broad feeling from all weather related channels out to max of two weeks thats 14 days into the future a long long time in forecasting even with todays massive computers and Sat information .and with the possibility of a russian block setting up the weather two weeks from now could be totally different let alone one whole Month .All to play for gang ,dont think otherwise unless you have a magic crystall Ball but if you do please share it with our vibrant friendly best weather Forum in the world .
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Morning all posters ,still a very disturbed Atlantic looking at todays Models .Yes we have signs of possibly something taking place in the further outlook which could benefit us coldies but yet again its at the longer range .it could be a block setting up over n/west Russia or equally i feel a high pressure cell setting up further west ,or a continuation of the present Zonal train ,its just that at the 10 day range ifeel is always an eternity in meteorological ,Just going back 3 weeks in time and no sign realy of our current severe weather ,so what hope is there of getting MID January nailed from this distance ,plenty of time left so its a case i think of being patient ,And Crack open some STellas ready for this evenings runs ,CHEERS GANG
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Happy Christmas to all my fellow posters
well models keeping us on our toes at the moment ,and there are some signs of something possibly popping up for coldies in some of the later GFS runs today ..we just need to get other Models on board i feel before we can start counting our Turkeys .CATCH YOU ALL UP LATER cheers -
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Hi Guys,
Only had 37.5 mph winds today. I really thought they were going to be a lot worse, even tied stuff down in the garden. Am I correct in believing there is worse to come this evening?
looks like winds will be picking up as next hvy pulse of rain arrives around 7 ish expect several hrs of persistant hvy rain and the usual sting in the tail later .
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WELL UP TILL NOW ITS BEEN JUST WINDY AND STEADY RAIN ,buT now all hell is breaking out gusts realy picking up and rain now v hvy and persistant and out towards the s/west gone black im on west Mendip 8 miles east of weston ,not that high about 80 mtrs or so .looking at radar and torrential bands of rain now moving n/east across the west country .looks like winds will moderate later then pick up severely as the main front approaches tonight edit rain now nearly monsoon ,14.32 pm this is a biggy fridays could be similar ,take care
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The suspence is nerve grating ,Will ecm throw a cracker in the works . v good day model wise so far best position so far .another way of looking at things could be Fridays low getting modeled further south .but i expect GFS to show many synoptic situations in its later frames especially if an Arctic high does set up shop .Certainly not boring .
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If we can get the pattern right it does not take long to set up some cold air .Looking at the GFS pressure is rising very nicely in the polar regions but GFS is still showing a low of very deep pressure Just to the south of it ,looks a bit odd to me and i would expect if Gfs is correct on polar high that low should be further south ,so lets hope at this range its struggling with correct pattern ,just another take on it .i havent watched the end of the run yet as posting but we are a few steps hopefully on the road to our Fix .Looking forward to ECM and GEM tonight ,
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Although tomorrow looks very windy and wet i have noticed the tone from weather forecasters come down a notch today as appossed to yesterday ,also my cousin informs me that the Met office have informed his transport company that the worst as been shunted further north so rain becoming a bigger threat to transport companys in our area .But still a very active Monday and early tuesday .Christmas day looks a fine day with slightly cooler temperatures and boxing day milder with sunny spells .Next fridays low seems to be heading much further north with high pressure pushing up from the S/west so next weekend mild but breezy ,and some signs of High pressure over spain and france setting us up for a possible very mild start to 2014 .But early days yet as the weather at 10 days is hard to model .Bumble bees visiting our pansy plants ,bulbs well and truly out ,but the weather can fool us .,remember Jan 20th 1947 extremely mild in parts of early january then the beast from the east visited for Seven weeks .
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WHERE,SFrosty with those STellas .
My ex mother inlaw was all gums but boy could she bite . as far as weather Models the zonal train continues but some signs on horizon of a cooling down eventually .just a hunch but i think this afternoons GFS could give us some cheer after 268 hrs as pressure possibly rises out east ,fingers crossed ,cheers all .
ECM on the way .
well models keeping us on our toes at the moment ,and there are some signs of something possibly popping up for coldies in some of the later GFS runs today ..we just need to get other Models on board i feel before we can start counting our Turkeys .CATCH YOU ALL UP LATER cheers 
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes its a case of watch this Space ,if there is a cold spell out there mid month the models will take a while to show us .mid month is 11 days away gang so expect ups and downs like last nights ECM and of course this mornings ,keep an eye on met office further outlook .they wont commit untill definate signs are within their radar and when it is they will im sure Tell us all .