legritter
-
Posts
1,942 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by legritter
-
-
I think wind warnings will possibly get added over the next few hours ,there is a lot of severe weather too come ,so today the basic stuff then tomorrow any upgrades or downgrades .Late fridays system could go several ways synoptically as its 4 days away ,but if all the right things come together COULD be the bad boy of this winters nightmare ,along with this wednesdays .Met office doing a grand job in a sciense that is so complex ,cheers all .
-
2
-
-
Well the last 7 weeks model watching for me certainly as kept me glued to the computer with amazing interest especially as im a total cold snow fan .tonights data and Modells show total news worthy weather all week but at the end moderate signs of drier condition with high pressure arriving close by .looking back in history many severe and long lasting weather types in our winters usually last 6/7 weeks so perhaps this one is finally coming to an end .but as usuall at the seven day range and beyond we can never be certain .Wish i could have a pound for every winter similar to this one in our past History of millions of years ,i would fly off tomorrow but knowing my luck would miss a raging northerly and an easterly beast .Fantastic forum this and certainly very informative for learners and at times fun a bit of banter and sniping ,but great place to be .
in the love of Meteorology .-
9
-
-
Is it me or has it suddenly got a lot windier here in Bristol?
Yes its getting windier here on mendip last 20 mins or so also another batch of hvy showers brewing up in bristol channel but hard to tell exact direction they will take ,time will tell .
-
I swear around a hour ago there was some lightning in Bristol during a heavy shower. Can't be certain though.Anyone else in Bristol see anything?
quite possible as at 5pm ish we had an intense down pour which only lasteed a minute here on west mendip ,wind just gusty here but looking like some v hvy showers towards midnight which could turn thundery ,hardly got any rain here last night as the polo hole effect kept appearing on the radar .looks like some potential next week for some good downpours with thunder and some wintryness thrown in ,this winter looks like costing billions possibly in repair work ,lets hope something more settled turns up ,cheers all .
-
As a matter of interest only ,XC weather on current wind chart for now as london area down for a gust of 109 mph ,obviouse a computer error .or does it know something we dont ,back to the now and a very severe several days coming up ,showers ahead of tonights frontal rain now hitting gently on my window panes .Take care all .
-
Met Office Radar looking impressive/alarming for the South Coast - large area of torrential rain arriving perhaps 10.30 onwards. This appears to be earlier and heavier than that shown on their last (amber) warning posted late yesterday morning. If my reading of the radar is correct i am surprised Meto warnings have not been updated this morning as I feel there could be flash flooding as well as deterioration of the background water levels.
Rain just arriving here ,on west mendip .that sky is now a uniform lead grey ,with not much movement of cloud cover ,to me that shows we could see some intense down pours ,would not be surprised to see some locations see in excess of 40mm of rain .no end in sight for many over coming 6/7 days ,and a growing possibility of colder uppers and low pressure and also temp at the surface becoming colder some of us could see snow next week but at this range areas and elevation still waiting for detail ,a very interesting but worrying time yet again seems likely ,cheers all .
-
Havent posted in a while ,but been watching in total amazement at our current stormy spell which as now been with us for Seven weeks or there abouts .about the same time scale as some of our notable severe winters but in a different weather type .looking at the Models and Data it looks like we enter slightly different territory next week with some colder uppers and colder temperatures at the surface .but its at a range that could change but still i think a fair possibility .A good post from Johnholmes regards Trough Disruption ,the weather is very complex with loads of physical things happening ,but for many the term is quite often used when a trough is acted upon by other atmospheric conditions ,and of course quite loosely talked about when a trough approaches the Uk from the west or s west and runs into colder continental air hense bringing us our magical snow ,But it would be nice if we all stuck with the same definition for learning reasons ,but this Forum needs discussions like this as its all part of the learning experience.So interesting times a head and who knows where we could be this time next week ,cheers
-
8
-
-
Had a gorgeouse dog back in the 80s ,one night in july it came into our bedroom wining ,it went to sleep at foot of bed ,at 5.30am all hell broke loose massive thund storm 38mm rain in 2 hrs dogs are so alert to severe weather ,much quieter day today than expected ,but wind now getting up .looks like a showery spell between 2am and 10am ,wednesday and next friday days to watch ,after mondays rain .
-
definately gone colder the last hour or so here [sOMERSET ]Not much activity at present but just noticed some good looking clouds out west ,so any showers later could be active with hail possible .perhaps streamers setting up later this evening but trying to forecast areas hard call but good synoptics .lets enjoy it while we have it ,cheers gang .
-
Rain setting in steady now in last 15 mins ,getting moderate and western sky getting darker .looking at radar some hvy rain brewing out in bristol channel looks like a possible 25mm or so overnight as our low drops south and later tomorrow as colder air feeds in we could see some brief wintryness over hills etc .this weekend looking dire again with hvy rain strong winds and all but kitchen sink ,next week if low pressure comes further than forecast east could see copiouse amounts of rain ,
-
The four low pressures of the washout apocalypse.
I thought the same myself ,but lets hope they are all stringed out further south with a sausage high from finland too north atlantic,we need a sign erected out west ,keep sharp right .
-
2
-
-
Just had a very hvy hail shower plus a few wet flakes towards the end of it .looking at radar it seems these showers are firing up very quickly over the bristol channel .if we can get some lines of more organised ones later tonight we could see a white morning ,but we need some good shower activity ,but hay its a start .
-
Lets enjoy where we sit at the moment ,we are looking at colder wintry conditions for many parts of our country next week,.and at this range many many features could turn up to give us coldies some fun .as far as model charts past 5/6 days i would say we have a very good chance to see some classic ones popping up over the coming weekend and early next week .we must remain patient gang .ok tonights ECM was not exactly like everyone was hoping for and i would say it painted a very messy picture with many marginal possibilitys but to me that is fine as marginals can deliver and the charts at the end will as many will be aware will be DIFFERENT Tomorrow .Tonights Fax 120hrs from Met office will be interesting ,i would say at this moment any return to westerly winds if indeed they totally break through will be a messy one ,in my books next week smells of Roses but with a few thorns thrown in .STellas are on ice ,Looks like Ian Fergusson is swapping his job as a weatherman to become a Referee ,Thanks for your input Ian much appreciated ,cheers gang
-
7
-
-
Refresh mate its updated now.........
Thanks for that info ,much appreciated .yes dont think the met office will react yet to possible changing events next thursday ish as its a good 5/6 days away so all cross fingers ,I feel a prozack coming on or a behind the settee sleep ,cheers
-
1
-
-
Great forum today ,but how are or why people quoting latest met office update when its not on met office site yet .perhaps its only me but still seeing yesterdays cheers .
-
3
-
-
Well things certainly looking rosy for us coldies ,becoming very Knife edge stuff looking at current models ,and then mid week next week thats 6/7 days away which is a long time in meteorology becomes possibly very productive .I will ceertainly be keeping an eye on that block to our n /east as it would only take a rise slightly higher than currently forecast to take us into real winter .But stand by your beds for many swings and finer details will appear each day .but pressure to our north and n/ east i think is the key .GFS good for possible detail out to 6 days ,but dont take last 3 frames of ECM too seriousely as these will change twice per day on a bigger scale .dont forget fax as this can give much more detail .And remember many a good snowfall in the uk is a result of Marginal synoptic situations .Now over too FROSTY for those colourfull charts .And BOOM TIME ,CHEERS stELLAS ON ice .
-
1
-
-
It all comes down to positive or negative interpretation, in most cases it's easy to spin it either way! Anyway as Winter of 79 alluded to the block to our northeast is looking very similar to the build up to the Feb 78 battleground which buried most of SW England under 20 ft snowdrifts!
Next week could possibly pull off some good surprises looking at Current modelling .on the run up to that low that tracked s/east then east of s/east on the 18th feb 1978 i actually had the pleasure of spending the week as a quest at a weather centre ,what a week will it wont it ,even up till t12 hrs it was forecast to miss bristol but boy did it arrive in style ,although bristol did catch it the worst was further south .if you look at many classic winter storms its quite often marginal to start with .Nice to see a large block setting up over russia that could hopefully change things after next thursday gang ,and at the 7/8 day range thats a very long time in meteorology ,interesting wintry synoptics so plenty for us to get our teeth into .
-
2
-
-
There is looking at current Data a possible synoptic situation brewing for early next week which could spring some wintry surprises ,its currently at the 6/7 day range so taking that into account and the fact that beyond that is going to be very hard to model even with todays super computers we could be looking at our first realy good cold shot ,not to be sniffed at Gang ,come on people im a snow freak Aweek in meteorology is a v long time and remember its not an exact science so all to play for FEBRUARY a realy truly winter month so chill out ,And pray ,cheers i,ll have a half
-
5
-
-
West is not best eh ?!
Meanwhile, purely out of interest at least we are not the only part of the N Hemisphere experiencing a mild Winter. 850 temp 12-14c in parts of W Canada, with not one part of Alaska north of -5c line and only 30% north of the 0c line...that must be a first for late Jan.
as far as climate weather goes the last 7 weeks have been spectacular in the northern hemisphere ,but not for us coldies ,its a case of waiting for that big change ,i say coldies as i mean here in the UK but theres time left we just need the dice to fall right .
-
1
-
-
YES certainly very interesting synoptics later this weekend ,and next week .still plenty of firming up to go but this could be bringing some wintry weather behind it ,tonights main runs should give us a clearer picture and of course todays Met update ,although i think they will side on caution ,may not be the Winter from hell regards snow ,but if you suffer with flooding it certainly is hell ,and warnings now out for this Friday ,cheers
-
2
-
-
I think the GEFS 00z mean has a lot of wintry potential, don't think I have seen a more wintry looking mean since last winter / spring. It appears the uk is right on the edge of a potential freeze at around T+192 to 216 hours before a cold westerly sets in. So although I was negative last night, I do think we are in with a shout of our first, yes our first cold spell of the winter.
Yes looking at current charts next week could deliver ,i would say anyone with a few metres up and a bit of luck could see some of our elusive snow ,signs looking good further ahead as well .interesting model watching coming up especially to see where any low pressure gets pushed ,but alot riding on energy coming across the atlantic ,but if we keep those heights to our north and n/east it could get very interesting ,so here we go gang ,Fingers crossed ,Stellas on ice for now ,
-
4
-
-
I feel we are starting a good period of cold model watching ,just hoping that as the week goes on our block to the n/east gradually influences the atlantic .and hopefully if it does hold to our n east and we get a major low dive s east that could be Game on ,But patience i think is required still yet .
-
Perhaps we could be looking at an Arctic blast? This could be wishful thinking but...
Scandi low to sink south inviting Arctic airflow (northerly) to follow in behind? Greenland heights extend further south too with colder 850's extending down from the north and over Scandinavia.
For my interpretation of what may happen... or what I (we - most of us) would like to happen.
The low comes up against the HP now in Russia, with the tail of the low concertinaing in behind (straight red lines and arrows). LP has nowhere to go, extends vertically (red rings) with a northerly flow (blue/white arrow) introduced.
Azores buggers off back south with the Jet either weakening or pushing south also.
You can see in the two frames from the 850's that colder air is building from NW, N, NE and E.
Perhaps it's just a delirious state I am in.
A possibility though?
Perhaps we could be looking at an Arctic blast? This could be wishful thinking but...
Scandi low to sink south inviting Arctic airflow (northerly) to follow in behind? Greenland heights extend further south too with colder 850's extending down from the north and over Scandinavia.
For my interpretation of what may happen... or what I (we - most of us) would like to happen.
The low comes up against the HP now in Russia, with the tail of the low concertinaing in behind (straight red lines and arrows). LP has nowhere to go, extends vertically (red rings) with a northerly flow (blue/white arrow) introduced.
Azores buggers off back south with the Jet either weakening or pushing south also.
You can see in the two frames from the 850's that colder air is building from NW, N, NE and E.
Perhaps it's just a delirious state I am in.
A possibility though?
Delirious sounds good ,i,ll bank this ,lets hope feb delivers ,cheers .
-
1
-
-
Model watching is always and as been always highly frustrating and subject to change every day if not twice daily .currently with super computers i would say at about 6 days apart from small details [its these small details that give us our weather ] ,they arent that wrong ,but 8/10 days we enter unknown territory, 10/15 days calculated ,[with many questions more than answers ]so come on gang plenty of winter left and plenty of chances left ,ok the atlantic may come bulldozing in it may then get Frozen in its tracks ,tomorrow is another Dawn ,bring it on .
in the love of Meteorology .
South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->
in Regional
Posted
Halo ,ring around the moon ,high level thin cloud ,ice particles ,back too now ,squall front coming through ,torrential rain strong gustd just gone black ,cheers .