legritter
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Posts posted by legritter
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Well current models paint a very zonal set up with some very interesting days ahead and eventually some colder air being dragged closer to our shores .Also the prospect of New weather features popping up on every individual model run .At this time last Friday the 6th of December ,one week into winter many posters including myself Feared Alimpet high ,euro high ,dank dark mild days no wind no rain ,no prospects of hope at the end of the tunnel . I myself actually today have taken a look at last weeks posts and i would recommend this to new posters and learners alike ,it certainly shows you that a week in meteorology is a long time ,so double that nearly for christmas day /boxing day and this is why we cannot be sure what will be the synoptic picture for that day .so when looking at the end of The GFS run remember its only a possibility ,so with Plenty of winter left we are in with a chance ,i will catch up after tonights main runs
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well glad i popped the computer on looking at recent very interesting posts ,woken up by wind knocking blind ,yes certainly in current and medium range forecast a LOT happening and a lot of changes as systems develope in a mix of air in the north atlantic .so looking at the period of past 168 hrs on the models i would expect many changes over the course of just one day in the models . some very interesting times ahead and a fair possibility now that we could be seeing something wintry turn up in what will be a very turbulent atmosphere .
just a DE Cafe as going back up now .-
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Well certainly becoming very unsettled on current output and stormy for some .but the high on continent still wants to hang on for dear life .some realy deep cold air being pulled south in time lets hope some of it reaches our shores .certainly a very interesting time ahead ,catch up later
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Another trend this morning towards a very full blown brussel sprout moment ,indeed if next Thurs pans out as forecast by ECM a Very severe spell of weather is on the cards .certainly a very active north Atlantic at the moment ,High pressure over southern and s/east Europe is being attacked but at the moment remains close enough to keep anything too cold at bay ,but that could change so things looking interesting and with plenty for us to debate .
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Slightly off topic but just watched Canadian weather channel and forecaster said GFS as been doing good at 6 days and ECM as been performing well lately ,Isay ecm but he did say european model .catch up after morning runs good night .
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Good evening Gang .Yes im liking the look of things with some action weather on the horizon going by current Models tonight .it wouldnt take much to get a few of these lows a bit further south .every model run now is showing v deep lows being generated in the north Atlantic so certainly not boring ,with the possibility of some Newsworthy weather affecting some next week .indeed if the charts just firm up a bit on our side [coldies ]we could possibly see some wintryness coming into the mix .As for the very long range outlook we can only wait and be patient as no current forecasting Model can work out what our very very complex upper atmosphere and other complex atmospheric ingredients are going to do in several weeks time .it was only a month ago that certain forecasters in the states declared NO wintry weather here untill atleast the new year ,We have moved on over the years especially on upper air patterns warming etc but looking ahead a month or more in my opinion is one hell of a gamble .
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Ian practically wrote off chances of a white Christmas for the BBC West region on this evening's forecast, while stating that a change to unsettled conditions with wind and rain were very likely from the end of this week through until Christmas.
Well i never saw Ian on telly tonight ,but it totally surprises me that he would write OFF snow at Christmas at this range ,a full two weeks and a day in the future .of course he as the knowledge of charts and info from the met office and is quite rightly in the right to put his thoughts across but at this range i feel that is one hell of a gamble .im pretty sure looking at the charts that we have the Potential for some interesting weather on the run up to Christmas .
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Still plenty to cheer about tonight ,and looking at the last frames of ECM a couple of adjustments could go in our favour .but its oh oh oh so painfull ,we know there are possibilitys still up for grabs in the outlook but we need to see it in front of us ,perhaps it will show itself over the coming days .THe last couple of runs of GFS have not been so good as last nights Tease at the end ,so will it throw us some more cheer later .Things starting to change a bit in the Arctic regions and close enough for us to be able to benefit some ..so at this early stage of this winter Plenty going on, certainly boring for some But a balancing act for mother nature ,there could be surprises Galore ,so dont give up on the Hunt For Cold .PS i saw a big flock of Gulls today ,flying in an anticlockwise direction ,any suggestions .please keep it clean .
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Well certainly something more Mobile looking at current charts and i,m eagerly awaiting tonights runs ,GFS as it looks way out into the dark realms of well past 10 days i only use for trend setting keeping an eye on synoptic set ups that reapear closer to the more reliable .but i feel we are on a change with some interesting weather being modeled for next week .When i first got into computers about 5 yrs ago i couldnt believe my luck in finding Net weather and all these charts,.as back in the 70s and 80s i used to get charts from local weather centre 5days per week .little did i realise that although it fuelled my hobby [obsession ]it can at times be frustrating when all you want is snow every winter ,which in our position on the globe wont happen every year .so it looks like some interesting developements could be taking place over n /west Russia area and of course north Atlantic ,and the winter as only begun ,Brilliant Forum and thanks to regular posters who go that extra Mile giving us technical info ,cheers .
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YES YES PLEASE Mr GFS ,certainly in a festive mood ,but more runs needed but signs are there .so off to bed ho ho ho .at least long last something of interest ,perhaps the vortex is about to BOW down, HOPE SO .
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As other posters have pointed out some realy cold air being injected into north Atlantic fairly soon .Looks like a chunk of it his trying to escape .tonights ECM is already bringing low pressure ever closer to the uk and if tonights run can be followed by more like this we May get lucky regards some wintry potential .GFS also throwing up some very disturbed weather in outlook .but we must not take things for granted as the above events i have quoted are out in the further outlook .But im sure that there are some happy posters tonight ,so we will put the NUKES on stand down and hope the Dice as our number on it .
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I think at this moment in time looking at current charts and data any cold will come from areas of low pressure passing to our north .But at the current range its going to take a more southerly jet or high pressure over Europe to relax current conditions .Hopefully some of these lows can make it further south and east ,and i would say there is a fair chance of this happening .GFS looking stormy in its later output ,lets hope tonights ECM is a good one ,cheers
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OK ,Ground Hog Days it may be ,but a fair possibility going by models of some action weather in later outputs this morning .at this range the location of Atlantic lows and high pressure over Europe could change on following runs and we could finish up with some pretty lively weather come next week .i expect a very interesting run of GFS today and probably over the coming days as well ,so perhaps some cheer on the horizon gang .
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Well i was going to post in Model forum but cant really add much tonight as i think most things have been said .so here goes ,the models are being controlled by the powers to be ,the EXPRESS newspaper as got this winter nailed so the powers to be are keeping us in the dark as to the impending winter from hell ,i think FROSTY as sussed it out and will soon be onto it .those Dart board lows in north atlantic are a red herring and the euro high a figment of the models imagination .there is no fooling the GFS and im sure it will soon be picking up on the sudden Stratospheric warming that is actually taking place right now ,indeed GFS is updating now so lets get our skates on and tune in ,STellas all round cheers gang .
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Looking like a possible Atlantic attack in further outlook ,but a lot depends on how far south and east any low pressure areas travell .so something at this range to keep us interested ,and lets hope a more Mobile pattern becomes established which Could help out us coldies if colder air gets pulled south ,so not all doom and gloom and plenty for us to ponder about .
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Just taking the models on face value ,Not alot happening up till 168 Hrs .then i see the potential of some pretty deep lows winding themselves up and moving N/EAST in the north atlantic and at this stage some pretty cold air in the mix to the north of these lows .It wouldnt take much especially if high pressure over europe moves away at a quicker rate than is currently shown .so there is a fair possibility that IF these lows track further east with time we could be in a favourable position to pull in some deep cold air .so everything still to play for and plenty of time on our side from of course a coldies perspective .the biggest stumbling block of course in our search for real cold is our position in the northern hemisphere .,but our Island as been visited by extremes millions of times in the past ,we just have to be patient ,
Will the GFS give us some cheer . -
please remove as off topic But sad .sat outside a pub in Somerset last night watching imitation snow falling for over an hour ,it covered the roof and road outside in several inches of snow even car tracks in the snow ,my wife and friend got back to me after shopping and even my wooly hat was covered [the models didnt forecast this so theres hope yet .PS i had a STella cheers .
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All still to play for gang .Its still very very early days ,not many carrots around and why should we believe the models in their later frames .the weather does look rather unfavourable looking at charts and data and i think they have a good picture of whats coming up over the next 10 days or so but beyond that and the rest of the winter WEare clueless and so are the models . NAO ,AO cant be picked up untill near the time and many other big weather changers so things a week or so from now could look very rosy .my big straw today is based on a little gut feeling that perhaps these high pressure systems close by but in the wrong positions for us coldies will eventually be replaced by low pressure . Sometimes when things look totally Set in Stone ,the weather can pull a surprise ,Crack open a STella and relax ,and hopefully CHILL out .
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Not much joy for coldies on charts at the moment ,patience required i feel and something needed big time to give us better synoptics for a colder shot .but with 12 weeks of winter left all to play for .perhaps we may get some joy over coming days .
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Well nothing on tonights ECM for coldies ,unless it as the position of the high in its last 3 frames totally wrong and the high finishes up much further north .And at this range other possibilitys are possible .GFS not on our side but i half expect this to flip pretty soon ,but in what direction . GEM Model well and truly showing us some promise and hopefully its smelling something .UK MET as we dont get to see longer range charts are i think toying with a possible change in about 10 days time ,but you can only gleen this from its updated further outlooks . some posts tonight talking of christmas well 21 days away thats 42 runs of ECM and MET Office and 84runs of GFS,,and of course GEM and many more .Three weeks time could be totally different .The Polar vortex could be totally in another state with the Atlantic Oscillation going Negative ,we are in a very good position gang its only Day 4 of winter with many changes to come ,they could all stack up against us but equally be our friend .never give up the chase BUT be patient .Crack open a STella .cheers .
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Yes FROSTY ,spring is coming very early this season ,Next week ,followed by Winter ,get all the shopping done now plenty of STellas in the garden you wont need a fridge ,KEEP THE FAITH UP GANG ,ups and downs in our hobby so tomorrow could be rosy .
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If an easterly is going to develope which was hinted at yesterday on the postage stamps and other data available i think it would be wise to wait for a few more days looking to see if its still showing .but must admit the vortex is all over the place with chunks heading out of the arctic at different points in the northern Hemisphere .todays ecm a little better but Gfs is giving us NO comfort at the moment .Lets see what Met office update hints at as they have info we dont always see at their disposal ,but probably they will side with caution . so a day of scraping around but dont be tempted to reach for Prozack or blades as tonight at 7PM it all could flip the other way .
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The last 3 frames of ECM could very easily look different come 24hrs ,possibly 12 .if a beast is out there it could be a few days yet before we see its snout .At least high pressure is out there and todays data was looking good so lets not give up yet .We cannot expect models to perform at this range in such UNKNOWN territory which is constantly changing .i think the next clue will come in tomorrows met brief in further outlook ,or that could just remain the same ,Have faith ,good synoptics for coldies take a while to Mature .
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if an easterly influenced pattern does set up ,it could disappear for xmas and come back again after ,there are so many options on the possibility side that it becomes mind Numbing and Prozack territory ,all very interesting and if it does come to fruition a fantastic forum discussion with loads of IMBY and Pram wars .so tonights ECM will be the one to watch ,only a thousand tickets for tonights show available ,booking recommended .JOE Laminate next i fear .
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Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Some hints on GFS of possibly a pressure rise on the russian arctic side in the far off outlook .still a very disturbed atlantic dominated flow next week ,and if pressure over eastern europe and further s /east falls more than forecast an even more stormy spell of weather .i think we will have to wait untill this evenings runs or even tomorrows to see if the ECM storm will come off later next week .some possible cold air being brought south around the festive period but at 12 days away who knows ,so a very interesting time a coming and the plot thickens gang .