legritter
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Posts posted by legritter
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Nice to see the vortex being attacked at last ,its early days yet with many days of ups and downs expected in the Models unless we get a smooth ride which i dont think in this weather game .Absolute loads of weather coming up over the coming week or so ,so it should be very interesting going forward .still some uncertainties regards Christmas day and boxing day as troughs at 4/5 day range are hard to predict so some possibilitys as regards the white stuff somewhere and considering where we were 10 days ago it sort of gives you an idea how hard it is trying to predict Jan 1st at this range .catch up later after tonights runs wonder what s out on that horizon which is so UNpredictable ,Cheers all
i,ll have a Half .-
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Well certainly still interesting Model watching with plenty more Zonal weather over the coming week or so ,and a little light perhaps at the end of the tunnel regards some higher pressure perhaps attacking the arctic regions .Thanks to Mucka for helping me out with updating charts ,no luck yet i think i need a crash course on computers but will get there hopefully .Lets hope we all get Lucky over the Christmas period in any hvy precipitation especially if the Dice falls right .cheers
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Icant get ECM to update from the last run ,is it just me or a glitch ,Cheers .
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Well the burning question now is how much Longerrrrr will we see a constant stream of abuse being thrown at us from across the Atlantic and a troublesome high Laughing at us from central and eastern Europe .I suppose it depends on what lights your Candle whether you want to see a pressure change and to what degree .So far today looking at the models is certainly Groundhog day But we do have a few signs of perhaps some higher pressure trying to set up shop over the Arctic.And some colder air being draged in behind some of the Atlantic Lows and troughs .we can only Wait and just hope with 9 weeks of Winter left that us Coldies will be rewarded eventually .Eyes down for the Evening runs and STellas at the ready .
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Fantastic potential from the Gfs 00z op run from a cold perspective compared to the flat Ecm 00z, the gfs shows increasingly wintry synoptics as the jet is pushed much further south than it's usual position and the uk becomes locked into a cold pattern with arctic air mixing with low pressure to bring a much higher risk of sleet and snow through the christmas and new year period, the hills in particular would become very snowy if the jet goes that far south. I like how a strong ridge builds south from iceland / greenland and cuts off the route for atlantic depressions to introduce milder air, instead the lows are diverted further south and brings the classic undercut into play..i'm hoping this is the way forward as it screams wintry potential for late dec / early to mid jan.
Fantastic post FROSTY lets hope your right ,but models i feel this morning on a knife edge ,looking to a better run from ECM this evening last few frames this morning no Christmas chear ,STellas all round gang .
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Well the last few frames on tonights ECM a bit tamer but certainly a very disturbed spell of zonal weather to come for quite a while yet .But we all know it will probably all change for last couple of frames again tomorrow .Still i think small features will pop up on every run now but at this juncture No major pressure change is showing on current output .Certainly very disturbed out there now so i think its quite likely that the current spell of weather will be of Note when the weather history of our island is written up .And on that Note what comes next still to be decided.
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Model watching is always going to be a painfull process especially if you are looking for your type of synoptics to turn up .but i would say to new members ,Read the posts of some of the regular posters ,pop into the learning area and look at past events in history ,history in meteorology does not always mean things repeat themselves but you can learn fascinating facts and apply it to your learning skills .Well im pretty sure looking at all current data and models that the next 10 days or so will be full of interesting weather and each day giving the Forecasters a new challenge as new features pop up in a very mobile and gradually turning colder weather pattern .BUT cast your mind back to friday the 6th of December ,and as i said last week on that date it was all talk of Euro tripe etc ,I for one had the Euro blues ,but look where we are now ,and where we could be two weeks from now in what is an eternity in forecasting time .Well GFS is in the kitchen cooking up ,and ECM tonight could lets hope be a good one .
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Just had a fairly strong gust here .truckers reporting strong gusts and hvy rain in some parts of Cornwall .This front when it comes through could be extremely powerfull looking at SAt ,,later tomorrow with just a bit of height looking increasingly wintry ,but we need to be nearer T12 to be more sure .wouldnt be surprised to see something wintry tomorrow evening going across the mendip Highway to me mother in laws cheers gang .
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Very interesting Model watching coming up especially If some cold uppers do appear .each day new possibilitys and new Synoptics to talk about .And with Christmas still 7 days away the synoptics for that day could change quite significantly .So for some thinking this Winter is Doomed from a coldies perspective ITS ONLY JUST BEGUN ,about ten weeks left plus the bonus of March ,The hunt is on ,Stellas at the ready
i,ll have a half .-
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I can understand that extremes can be interesting but generally speaking gales and rain you can have in any month in the UK so it's understandable that for most people who like snow and cold in winter its a bit underwhelming not to say depressing to see the Atlantic in a very angry mood, personally given the choice between the current output and a Euro high with faux cold I'd take the latter.
In terms of the coldies departing from here during the current spell, well the hardened crew will continue to look out for some potentially colder weather myself included. I refuse to join in the storm love-in because its deemed as interesting, personally I don't like wind or storms.
And without the coldies and "our search for cold" the tumbleweed would be blowing across the thread, fair play to those who find the current output interesting, each to their own. As SSB said you can like cars but not all makes!
just like to add that myself along with many posters am a cold snowy Chap ,hoping for that High to the north with plenty of snow chances ,but i keep myself happy with other interesting weather .but im not giving up hope ,That Vortex can be broken and who knows whats around the meteorological corner .
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Brilliant POST BY iAN Furgusson .There is plenty of action weather coming up and probably new features will appear each day during this current set up .YOU realy can find interest in other weather synoptic situations with out having raging easterlys every week of every winter .So tonights Models firms up on stormy outlook with cold air gradually being brought in to the mix ,SO CHILL OUT .
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Certainly looking very stormy right out till just after the Christmas period ,with some very large rainfall totals and some wintriness chucked into the mix on todays models .It will always be a hard time getting deep cold into our Neck of the woods but when you take the millions of times and probably more that perfect Synoptics have set up shop in this part of the Northern Hemisphere its only a matter of time untill we get lucky again .Looking out past 10 Days we will nearly always have the models showing a possible pressure change as past this range is a long time in Meteorology .My Big Straw at the moment is perhaps the very strong Vortex and a winter so far dominated by high pressure over parts of europe could swing the other way over the coming 10 weeks of winter .ok we dont have deep cold but if you like action weather get out the STellas and sit down relax and i dont think you will be disappointed .
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Sorry my previouse post was posted incorectly ,clicked on wrong quote i think .
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Relentlessly Zonal from start to finish
A lovely cold High over Siberia (luck sods!) with an awesome huge airmass circa -40 very extensive. Canada of course, not too shaby either.
No good in the slightest to the UK as it's all blasted east courtesy of the limpet vortex which has got a life tenancy over Greenland etc and bathes us in mild wet stormy rubbish.Or at over two weeks away it is totally wrong .Interesting times ahead with many IFS and 10WEEKS OF WINTER LEFT .
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A new thread , lets enjoy what the models throw at us in this very interesting disturbed spell over the coming week or so .plenty on offer going by todays output and Data ,and plenty of surprises in the very quickly mobile synoptic situaton that could gradually get colder if those colder 850 s come a visiting .
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Well looking at current model output, Christmas day boxing day period which is still 8/9 days in the future could produce almost a surprise for many at this range .plenty of very active weather to come before this period with some uncertain outcomes .Fax charts very usefull and Reading met office updates Daily .Certainly not boring as new features every day are likely to be picked up bringing us interesting outcomes .So at this range possibilitys for all ,so lets enjoy .
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Im taking orders gang for a low pressure system running across northern france come later next week ,and for a premium little extra charge some cold air in place over the continent ,Just a dream ,well anything at this range is possible but certainly looking at the current Models alot of weather to come ,enough to keep us interested ,Stellas all round after tonights runs .
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(Edit - sorry, this is a quote of Summer Sun's post which I seem to have messed up a little)
(Quote)
The Op which has the most extreme solution
(End quote)
My word, that would be phenomenal in terms of meteorological interest but best if it does not happen. I like stormy, but that would not be a nice Christmas for many. My instinct is that it is over-egged, but will still pack a punch.
After that I see the GFS hints at a northerly toppler - anyone's thoughts on the Christmas-New Year interval for some bona fide wintry weather?
MY Current thinking looking at the models is it would only need some medium adjustments ,and considering this period is at the 10/15day range who knows ,and mother nature is very much alive in our neck of the northern hemisphere so all to play for .
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Well gang ,looking at models charts ,we may not have cold heaven But we certainly have Major weather events forecast for our island in what could become very newsworthy events .also an increasing risk of colder air being pulled into our shores .its all starting to get interesting and each day bringing even deeper Lows into our kneck of the woods .But the christmas /new year period still open for uncertainty in this very mobile pattern .
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I think interesting times are ahead Model watching with each daily run of all Models giving us plenty to discuss. Todays GFS run was a complete turnaround but at that range it can be expected ,although the 528 dam wasnt that far to our north so i expect some interesting output to crop up soon .Tonights ECM was about as i expected it .But i must admit it is looking hard to get out of this current synoptic situation ,that is if thats what you want .so the weather is certainly not boring and plenty of time for many weather types to emerge over the coming winter months ,
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Yes i would expect many changes to the GFS predictions for Christmas period and beyond and at 4 runs per day we could see everything including the kitchen sink ,two hours till ECM is out will this keep us glued , but a lot of weather to come and interesting times so its eyes down gang ,
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Well certainly at this moment looking at all available data the coming week looks very Disturbed apart from this Tuesday ,with areas of very hvy rain and bouts of severe gales .Late wed into thursday being a more potent windy spell ,and IF the modelled low were to take a track further south it could be storm force winds across many areas .There are signs of eventually low pressure tracking further south pulling in colder air with an increasing risk of wintryness turning up .But i feel beyond sunday the 22nd of December there remains much uncertainty at this range .Yes as some have posted and of course with data to back it up it looks like the Jet will start to shift south with time so we could see some better synoptics with a better chance for us coldies appear .looking around the northern Hemisphere today there is plenty of newsworthy weather going on so that for me is a Big Straw to clutch and with just a bit of luck the Dice could fall in our favour ,of course if your fix is wild zonal you should be currently over the moon .Lets hope tonights runs and current run by GFS brings a bit more lowering of pressure over southern and eastern Europe; but at the end of week two of winter still plenty of weeks left for some Goodies .
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WOW Just pulled this from Twitter. Superb image Of the stratospheric Vortex, Slightly off topic sorry mods.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-10.29,61.29,432
That is one hell of an image ,thats what makes meteorology so fascinating ,Models still looking very interesting ,and one or two tweeks here and there and it could be game on for some ,tonights runs eagerly await ,cheers
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Any cooler/colder incursions no doubt much dependent on final track of LP systems expected in the run up to the festive period. The devil of course very much remains in the detail, although a rather punchy NW Pm type airstream can and usually does throw absolutely anything at us, bar the kitchen sink
there was a kitchen sink picked up by the gales back in the late 80s ,in someones back yard it was awaiting fixing by plumbers ,so going by current models westerly theme up till christmas with some colder uppers possible ,i think beyond 10 days could be a tricky one to forecast .
i,ll have a Half .
Icant get ECM to update from the last run ,is it just me or a glitch ,Cheers .
i,ll have a half .
Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
you never know who.s lurking in the shadows ,like you dont know synoptic situation two weeks from now ,and it could be creeping up on us in disguise .brilliant photo ,