Stuie

GEFS seems to be on the same page around week 2 too. An exciting pattern evolving.

Well hello ECM, this is much more like it.

Really liking the trend of the JS via the FV3, dives way south into week 2. This whole week 2 scenario is really shaping up but I cannot contradict myself in saying there is faith in this. There is a trend though.

John, I never said models were biased, we live in an Atlantic driven weather system so putting faith in something which shows zonal is rather easy?

Not half but the JS looks to calm down and take a wander around the same timescale which has been touted for the zonal pattern to change.

You tell me, we could all take the CFS at face value and shut the forum for 3 months.

Certainly trying, if those LP`s can stay separate and not phase together then a very welcome boost to evolve the ridge is plausible. Edit: And they do...

There it is, the Azores ridge making a presence.. Hmm the wheels on the zonal bus falling off. Jigsaw puzzle 1 in action, just need part 2 to become established with the 850`s/flow.

You can`t trust anything at day 15, it`s just unfortunate that the default pattern we live in most of the year is zonal which makes posting that a little bit of a cop out tbh.

Feb, 2 things.... I haven`t read anybody saying a white dumping was coming anywhere soon. Secondly, when was the cold spell going to happen which is dead in the water. Pretty sure we were looking around the 2nd week of Dec for potential pattern change.

Fair enough, lets get to this point and discuss.

Daytime? Regarding Europe, unless we want a pure Easterly, I`d settle for tapping into a NE.

Never really monitored Scandi daytime temps before but I suppose the point I was making was the cold isn`t that far away to influence us with some slight modification...

Reading all the posts since logging on I thought this was game over, maybe i am reading this wrongly. I am going to quote some FI, the 9th, think I posted this date last night. Yes we are looking ant some zonality but it isn`t exactly warm and there could be some really interesting battlegrounds coming with the atlantic meeting cold air via the North. what is impressive is that (using the FV3) Scandi 2m temps (even daytime) do not downgrade throughout 192-384, utterly frigid. There is a Sceuro block which if it nudged west (not by much) then this is far from game over IMO.

2M temps Frosty?

Out to T96 Blue

December the 9th, the 1st time I have seen a clean split of the coldest air in the vortex. Interestingly, the bulk of the coldest air is on the Siberian side. Can we tap into please...

Tell me if i am way off the mark but that would mean we would be hoping for the cold to inject from the north or north west

Karlos, look what effect that has though, flip between 216 and 240. It could be the catalyst for a more western Azores ridge. I know, wishful thinking but only relaying what I am seeing.

And seems to be the only model which wants to spawn a little LP into north Africa. This seems to shunt the Azores west primed for that ridge obviously...

In fact Northwest, it is a little more evident when you look at the 850`s.... Posting again...

The smallest signs of an azores/greenie ridge... maybe my tinted glasses but I can see it.....

Well, as far as I can see, the EC wants to finish with a NW`erly.

ECM out to 24H....

I have never been great at reading the small print... (under image) Cheers mate and apologies Blue (or anyone).