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Stuie

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Everything posted by Stuie

  1. Stuie
    Think you have a dewpoint of about -6/7!
  2. Stuie
    Can`t rule out some overnight snow on Sat/Sun. Bit early for that, will be tomorrows watch.
  3. Stuie
    Totally agree Matt, lunchtime is predicted to have an even more extent into EA. (as it exits away)
  4. Stuie
    Think you quoted wrong post mate, I did post the Fax`s a page or 2 back? The 48hr FAX ties in with possibility of affecting EA, including the 528DAM. Still expect a warning area correction for Friday on that.
  5. Stuie
    Here are your current conditions, all snow here due to DP.
  6. Stuie
    Here you go.
  7. Stuie
    Giving it a decent go in NW Essex, forget radar type, it`s snow. Dewpoint in Cambridge is -1.8
  8. Stuie
    12z fax has a nudge South on the LP tomorrow compared to 0z. A flatter more Easterly direction also.
  9. Stuie
    UKMO even slightly more South than GEFS and doubt it will make a great difference, maybe just a touch slower with the LP.
  10. Stuie
    12z GEFS moves the boundary slightly more South than the 6z (extent of mild moving in at 13:00) Small detail but it`s there. 12z -
  11. Stuie
    Looks like precipitation gets somewhat reinvigorated by the time it reaches EA on this ECM run. Perhaps the draw from the North Sea, not sure.
  12. Stuie
    Agreed, we need to watch the LP intensity on the 12z, i.e. if 980 currently, don`t want it to drift to 985 etc (at the core). It has to have something about it to begin with.
  13. Stuie
    Going by the 6z GEFS 850 diagrams for my location/EA on Friday, I would expect a warning tweak tomorrow (if backed up by 12z). Other areas already covered by existing warning.
  14. Stuie
    Newcastle in the SOUTH East could take a battering lol
  15. Stuie
    Yes TEITS, here are the winds embedded with the lows.
  16. Stuie
    6z GFS does show the above.
  17. Stuie
    Using the Arpege for Friday lunch, snow chances much better with EA being favoured.
  18. Stuie
    Overnight jet profile from the GEFS for Friday morning. You can see why the LP is being modelled further South. EDIT: Wet bulb levels for Friday morning. You can see where the best chance of snow will be, North Wales, North of the Midlands. Ireland early hours Friday.
  19. Stuie
    Look where the centre of the low is Midnight Thurs.
  20. Stuie
    Just seen Nick, the FAX is now following yesterdays OP run. For fax sake...
  21. Stuie
    Real time charts from the GFS/NCEP: The 2 LP`s to our West are drawing air straight from the arctic. EdIt: And this shows a Greenland high, not Griceland.
  22. Stuie
    Good effort from the Arpege. Also well done GFS with wet bulb levels yesterday.
  23. Stuie
    Interesting comment and info thanks. Mentioned about being 1 step behind the other day.
  24. Stuie
    Read the list no need to pick 1. See how it pans out.
  25. Stuie
    As much as folks are looking at corrections South, keep in mind: Wet bulb freezing level At least -6 850`s Look at instability - Theta A drenching isn`t off the cards.
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