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Stuie

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Everything posted by Stuie

  1. Stuie
    IF the LP develops this way and produces another LP into the channel on Thurs early morning and IF the cold air which is modelled then X Arpege again from yesterdays run which hints at this Weds night.
  2. Stuie
    Yep totally agree.
  3. Stuie
    Not exactly sure what you mean when the weather is constantly mobile. Everything is going to develop during today. If you don`t look 3 days ahead then there is zero point in looking at these models.
  4. Stuie
    GEM still following the GEFS to a point. GEM Wednesday has disrupted the LP to the West compared to the GFS. (keeping the flow flatter)
  5. Stuie
    Looking at yesterdays NAO teleconnection, tentative sign that it will stay negative for longer. Whether that means a delay to the milder temps in the South who knows but here it is. EDIT: The 0z GEFS ensembles for London can`t even get strong agreement post T48.
  6. Stuie
    Looking at the Arpege profile rather than what I normally do (precipitation), they have 3 x LP`s midweek skirting Northern France. I suppose everything is on the table at the min.
  7. Stuie
    Things are only watered down if you look too far ahead.
  8. Stuie
    Wednesday/Thursday is going to be warning stuff or not. We aren`t gushing over a 10 day chart, this is much closer BUT details closer than that are still unresolved. I have no clue about further up but this SSW is playing havoc.
  9. Stuie
    Here is your ECM outlier from the 12z.
  10. Stuie
    Been thinking about your post Nick, the UKMO could be setting a trend and agree. If the LP`s do phase and stay West then could we possibly get an azores ridge, not over us but West of us?
  11. Stuie
    The issue I suppose is what happens to the LP`s, currently not formed (in a way it affects us) and is a trend they might just phase and stay West. You can`t say this isn`t interesting and is deffo a learning curve.
  12. Stuie
    Yep, 100% agree. Reign in those days.
  13. Stuie
    Not sure if anyone posted the GEFS ensembles but what a mess. Not sure if this qualifies as a shannon entropy or not but...
  14. Stuie
    The ECM has been chucking out plenty of outliers recently. Lets await the ensembles right.
  15. Stuie
    UKMO has some pretty cold 850`s on Weds.
  16. Stuie
    Yep, pretty much why I posted this morning about having a punt for the LP`s. Worrying about exact placements of a LP on Wednesday or Thursday and it`s only Saturday is baffling.
  17. Stuie
    GEFS - GEM 13:00 today. No I haven`t posted the same chart twice. Monday 13:00 Going by those charts, you have to watch the GEM with the same glasses as the GEFS(GFS) next week.
  18. Stuie
    @Cambrian Best post I have seen in ages, mild blip pmsl. A great light hearted view.
  19. Stuie
    To take a stab at where or which track any LP goes when we are starting from here on the GEFS is a heck of a punt.
  20. Stuie
    Yep, I`m not even going to look at the ECM, going for a drink. Go again tomorrow. Take it easy.
  21. Stuie
    This is not going to help Mucka. We have gone from a pretty slack jet to one which is getting fired up and taking aim.
  22. Stuie
    Agreed Mike. I should have expanded to say by dragging too much milder air in their current form (sort of said that to Nick). Take any lows if the cold air is there! Was hoping for something today to become clearer on the cold side but just signs of less cold covering the country. Let`s go again tomorrow.
  23. Stuie
    Struggling to see what is going to stop the LP`s ploughing the cold away from the South.
  24. Stuie
    It`s still wanting to wind up that LP, as does the Icon. Is this going to drag up a SW little ridge quicker?
  25. Stuie
    Changed it`s tune from the 6z, firing up that LP.
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