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Stuie

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  1. Stuie
    Here you are mate for reference. The counterpart of the east based NAO is the 'West Based' NAO. As you may imagine, west based means that the strongest part of the high pressure system is now to the west of Greenland, as annotated for above. In the west based negative NAO, one finds the cold and snow now focused in not only over the Plains and Midwest, but now over practically all of the East US.
  2. Stuie
    Even looking at March 3, this is NOT a west based NAO.
  3. Stuie
    Todays update on the tele...
  4. Stuie
    Agreed Blue, synoptic patterns. Usually if we are not cold we are very wet. For the last 2 weeks and at least looking forward to the end of the month, neither.
  5. Stuie
    Especially the bolded part but looking into March just isn`t output that is reliable to say the least.
  6. Stuie
    Don`t like looking this far ahead but we do look like losing any blocking near the UK. If the cold does transfer from W to E then that would be a positive IMO. I always thought a Greenland high gave us a better shout than a Scandi one, especially if cold loaded Siberian side.
  7. Stuie
    ECM T120, not very far right?
  8. Stuie
    possibility of the AO, NAO and PNA all being negative. This = X
  9. Stuie
    Pull your charts back to 5-7 max. It will save your sanity.
  10. Stuie
    7 day jet via the gefs. Don`t really to explain but for newer members, it is up and over our HP (with a little sniff at an Easterly flow).
  11. Stuie
    I think they are not showing high confidence in the west based NAO Mike.
  12. Stuie
    Very true. The signal `is` there for a west based -NAO but it is in FI. This really only happens at 14 days so let`s keep things in the short term for now until that signal either stays on track or X.
  13. Stuie
    Blocking signal for the next 9 days. Looks pretty good.
  14. Stuie
    How far are you looking Nick? Day 7 ECM. Edit: i.e. that`s far enough for now.
  15. Stuie
    Going to stick with until it makes no sense and/or just coincidence. Negative NAO and PNA combined is `cold` for us. Only based on our DEC snap but there was a cold point in NOV also.
  16. Stuie
    Well said Mike, let`s keep things to 5 days and see what manifests thereafter.
  17. Stuie
    You are looking at this years charts?
  18. Stuie
    I have read that the transfer of cold shirts to the Siberian side. Here is the end of the ECM to March 1. 850`s.
  19. Stuie
    Todays NAO/AO/PNA
  20. Stuie
    Start of the week 2M temp and end of the week 2M temp.
  21. Stuie
    Posted that last night. Also good to see the PNA staying negative.
  22. Stuie
    Haven`t read earlier posts but for 7 days time, the `big` three 850`s.
  23. Stuie
    Agreed but it is what it is.
  24. Stuie
    The CFS does this @ T714. Cold nirvana is always modelled.
  25. Stuie
    1 day at a time keeps the mind straight (ish) Sorry for this, plenty of water under the bridge to get to that point.
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