Stuie

The ICON wants to bring the cold in as a direct Northerly.

As this is for the timeframe that is being discussed, there must be big confidence in the warnings to put them out this early. Yes possibly updated closer to the time but on current runs, they look spot on which is slightly annoying.

Well said, my mistake, I moved on 24hrs instead of 12. Yes interest is when you state. EDIT: Regarding cold getting ahead, extremely fine margins from the overnight run. Probably too fine this far out which is a concern, see what 12z says.

Not sure, there is a warm sector in the front making it occluded but we can only keep monitoring.

Overnight FAX chart has the 528 DAM in the North Sea at midnight. (for anywhere but Scotland)

That`s 2 runs in a row throwing that outlier. It`s definitely finding things tricky.

ECM with the outlier of the month (only the 2nd)

Pretty short `blip`, actually a very short.

Nice info Nick. The AO is totally confused at the min but can see why the changes (for X period of time). I believe currently the NW is the cold theme and ties into the current PNA obs. AO - Seems everywhere is messy.

As comments are mainly about next Wednesday, the trend is there with the GFS less progressive. The weekends outputs (if not tomorrow) should give a clearer picture but here is the ECM/UKMO/GFS/GEM for T144 Totally agree with @Mucka about staying focussed closer to time but this does tie in with the NAO wanting to trend back towards neutral and has been the theme for many days showing that this wasn`t going to be a prolonged episode. The NAO is only based on the GFS so that`s 1 pinch of salt. The PNA, this is purely from my own observations of any correlation but it is now trending towards positive also. All these are just model assumptions and if there are effects from the 2nd warming then all the above could easily be trash. Don`t want to see the above being the trend on Saturday though (if you like cold that is for this spell, March could throw another but...)

Yep agree, need to reign the days in. Monday/Tues max.

Yep, just 1 run and it`s `somewhat` on it`s own for now, but certainly not for the bin.

Oh... no... But could be very interesting.

Phew, ECM does cover the UK Tuesday with -8`s.

This may be somewhat helpful for next week to define whether N/NNE/NE winds. I find it pretty hypnotic and a stress reliever too. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.66,37.79,659 Edit: And a great guide to see low and high pressure systems

Yep totally, kinda fun.

can we switch it for a thames streamer?

Noticed the hint of a channel LP across some models. Maybe feasible?

Just flicked through the GFS 06z run of 2M temps at 13:00 next week, never get above 4.

The UKMO has a trough towards the SE on Sunday (and 528 DAM) as the colder air starts to come in. See how that plays out. EDIT: Although it`s the GFS, the wet bulb level of 100 is around where the trough is on the FAX.

I use this sites Mogreps data

Yesterdays teleconnections but still looking at the correlation between the PNA and NAO being negative giving us cold weather. More for interest than any science. PNA 7 day outlook NAO 7 day outlook

Here is Essex, will leave you with London. Been steady output for a few days now. EDIT: Ties in with UKMO/ECM/GFS with Tuesday being the coldest 850`s. The cold front from the N Monday ish could be cold rain at the min.

edited.

Absolute junk model, that`s why I agreed with your Mogreps posted and said it wasn`t a Navgem, giving it credence.