Stuie

DEC/JAN - batter GFS MAR - batter UKMO Funny place this. By Saturday, will be interesting to see what models side with each other. We all know the model stars never have them in perfect alignment.

Was a bit worried reading all the breakdown comments. Posted the UKMO 0z this morning and here is the 12z. If anything, a slight upgrade.

UKMO 0z looks like a good solution at day 5, HP position near Greenland that still allows cold to move in.

1997 March was very warm (at 8.4, third warmest in the CET run for this century after 1957 and 1938, and indeed since 1659), and very dry, except in north-west Scotland.

March 6 looking like FI. This is like wishing time away but by Saturday it should become very clear (never is) Not much speak about how the 2nd warming will tie in going forward apart from Eagle Eye.

Agreed Mark, this isn`t a NAVGEM model. It does chop and change but it seemed to latch onto the idea a few days back, backed off and now an upgrade. Every model is twitchy.

As much as I liked the look of the T120 ECM, starting to think the UKMO with its more rounded robust HP may be better. This ECM run all happens rather fast, looks great but not sure the HP exiting NW and building that strong arctic HP in `days` doesn`t sit right. Deffo 1 day at a time required, it`s only Tuesday, lots of evolving to happen and there is a point in the ECM where the 850`s lift somewhat off the South coast hinting at the Atlantic having a good go. Amazing stuff and watching, just keeping level headed.

T120 ECM, liking the look of the HP and the cold pool.

Compared with yesterdays NAO, the rise out of negative is sharper today, swifter. 27th today

All of them, look for some consensus between the majority and just see how it all pans out.

Thanks for posting that even though I know it`s the wrong forum. To sum up 25 mins, hawk eye that HP movement in the coming days, forget snow charts for now.

Heard this morning that Mallorca is expecting a foot of snow and has issued warnings. Just shows you don`t need ridiculous setups.

Looks like it has headed back to where it was 2 days ago.

Very nice, North then NE.

Remember Michael Fish circa 1987?

All looks great from the ECM but this model can and has turned with 24hrs to go... Look forward to the ens.

This is my bit of the pizza, here`s yours...

That`s far enough for now, good effort ECM. You have to expect the pacific ridging is down the PNA neg outlook. All feasible.

Nice spot today regarding the NAO. Note the mean drops from 7/10/14 days. Trying really hard to go negative.

Talk of cross polar ridging yesterday. You can see this attempt easily with the jet.

If you look at the time stamps between Aberdeen and London, it almost looks like a Northerly which does make it`s way finally South. I am just looking at squiggly lines though. Edit : not from NE.

Just had to look to see the time stamps. Blimey. There is hardly ANY scatter towards neutral either... very interesting.

Very plausible indeed.

This uptick signal is still present on the NAO. The way I read that is yes we may get a swift colder hit but it isn`t sustained.

and there is the 9 day chart Nick, well said. Then again 9 days is well into FI.