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Stuie

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Everything posted by Stuie

  1. Stuie
    Is that FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII?
  2. Stuie
    Just my observations and opinion on these `trends`. The NAO is still trending towards being negative. The PNA is starting to to show a prolonged *negative. *edit Look at our last cold snap, start of DEC. Look at both charts relating to the DEC time period.
  3. Stuie
    Next 7 days, pretty much good agreement from the GFS/GEFS. Forget past that for now. TBH, that`s pretty much a rule all winter, even 5 days.
  4. Stuie
    Forget the outlier part, Feb 22 looks to be where perhaps effects of the SSW are starting to be modelled. Open mind required until later in the month.
  5. Stuie
    Quite many dismiss the AO and NAO forecast on here stating it`s just an ensemble watch. It has been pretty much spot on for me, the US has not been battered like it normally does and the plunge they did have was modelled. I am really on the fence and out of my comfort zone but there is some chaos going on, more so on the AO. The NAO is having a good go at going negative also. There is signals, take them with a pinch of salt.
  6. Stuie
    Never knew there was that function, thanks for pointing out.
  7. Stuie
    Slight difference, GFS was battered, ECM gets a raised eyebrow. You have the performance charts, think you have answered your own question.
  8. Stuie
    The ECM manages to go through the whole run without a sniff of a -8 850 hitting the UK.
  9. Stuie
    Here is the blocking signal to back up your theory.
  10. Stuie
    Doesn`t seem to be sustained blocking for anywhere near the UK in the 9 day period. Green lines = blocking strength, spot us on the map.
  11. Stuie
    Of course, that far out there is plenty of time for change but this ECM run is a brief Northerly and a frost.
  12. Stuie
    Out to day 9, there is not much cold pool on the ECM.
  13. Stuie
    Was more along the lines of our current status, it hasn`t moved in weeks which I think has been modelled bloody well.
  14. Stuie
    I jested to @nick sussex a couple of weeks ago about his blob of death, saying what if it just didn`t go anywhere. Looking at the AO and NAO, this still holds true, cold not diving into the US and we are trundling along with a positive flat line NAO.
  15. Stuie
    No worries mate, that is hard for me when I try and live by 1 day at a time. 5 days scares me Would I be annoyed if it came off? Not at all, just can`t compute that far.
  16. Stuie
    Issue is Mike is that nothing seems sustained, well in the 9 day timeline. My interpretation is (including my chart) is zonal could become a theme. Edit: Maybe a North/South split, more unsettled north of midlands and somewhat drier South.
  17. Stuie
    Looking at a 5 day timeframe. I was sort of confident of heights forming to the NW but tbh, too much energy to steamroller that. Energy is back into plunging some cold into Europe. Anyway, here we are.
  18. Stuie
    True and agree. What you do see from the 23rd (FI) is that it becomes 50/50 towards the 30yr mean. Let`s see how this pans out.
  19. Stuie
    The only thing I would say about these ridiculous charts is that I do think pressure will rise to our NW. This is being hinted at way closer than these charts.
  20. Stuie
    You have posted a pretty downward trend scatter chart. Down is colder right?
  21. Stuie
    Just trying to see modifications moving forward, albeit 7 days, the ECM loses some energy diving into Europe from it`s 0Z run. Edit: and here is day 10 FI.
  22. Stuie
    Going to see some rain on Thursday, blimey. After that you can see where HP builds (7 days)
  23. Stuie
    Fairly good agreement to build heights to our NW at T168. UKMO/GEFS/ECM
  24. Stuie
    This ECM run does tie in with the AO sharp drop towards neutral.
  25. Stuie
    Going to get slayed for this but every winter there are 14 day charts showing a cold invasion. I do understand this `may` have legs but posting 14 day charts is just keeping the forum going.
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