Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Stuie

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,095

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Stuie

  1. Stuie
    Can safely say I have never seen a chart like that before.
  2. Stuie
    Yesterdays ECM 12z vs todays for March 4. If we dare going another day...
  3. Stuie
    Yep I need to keep dates mentally closer to home but even at 7 days, correct the signs are there via the ECM. Just need to get to March 1 and review.
  4. Stuie
    Hopefully this will stop posts of 10 days +.
  5. Stuie
    There is no outlier in the ECM ensembles.
  6. Stuie
    I totally agree, there is zero point going past let`s say March 1 which your chart shows. This is only 4 days which makes the model(s) in total chaos. Going to be interesting.
  7. Stuie
    The NAO is still the only 1 of the teleconnections not showing a mean of - EDIT: For clarity, the mean is taken over a 14 day period.
  8. Stuie
    Just some irony Nick, makes a great change from battering the GFS and/or others. Enjoy your weekend.
  9. Stuie
    Nick, please do not slate the ECM, the god of models... Edit: GFS
  10. Stuie
    If this comes off, it will cement the idea of an Azores ridge into Greenland being exactly what the UK needs to truly deliver.
  11. Stuie
    Spirits more positive it seems today which is good. Looking at where we are on March 1 (only 6 days), a lot has to materialise. Huge change from yesterday? Not really apart from the Met Outlook.
  12. Stuie
    Pretty impressive from the ECM to drag some cold into the SE in 3 days time. 3 days do seem like a week though. It doesn`t make any sense in the 2 days post the 26th the cold air just goes awol.
  13. Stuie
    Not that anybody will but forget the rest of the month and be free of charts. If there is going to be fun, cold or mild then this month isn`t it.
  14. Stuie
    I did for March 3rd, T186. A negative AO `increases the chance of colder weather, troughs`, just like the NAO. Here is the chart again. Yeah best to move on.
  15. Stuie
    The US is hardly going to get an early spring. Not quite sure what you meant. Anyway, roll on March.
  16. Stuie
    Good luck with that Blue! Edit: maybe you meant NAO
  17. Stuie
    West coast / plains US correct. EDIT: Here is the problem and highlighted by a -AO into March. This chart is a very good example why we don`t want a -AO.
  18. Stuie
    NAO looks like going negative yep but has now shown an uptick towards neutral. As this is post March 1, big grains of salt required. The AO on the other hand is already negative (mean) and trending downward (colder plunges US) Anyway let`s get to March.
  19. Stuie
    Here is the ECM ENS for T144. Edit: here is the JS via the ECM, same time period (slack). Something at some point has to give.
  20. Stuie
    Cluster 2 Mike was my thoughts a couple of weeks ago, some serious energy to the West being held up by a fragile HP. We do need to get to T144 and reassess.
  21. Stuie
    @CoventryWeather You better ban all models.
  22. Stuie
    T144 looks about where we should pause before any WAA may occur. In order, ECM/UKMO/GEFS/GEM and included a 6z CFS. Good effort at a cross model agreement before picking apart.
  23. Stuie
    Indeed, TBH this is a chart which was always deemed the holy grail, azores/greeny HP block.
  24. Stuie
    Today vs T192 - You can see the transfer of cold. Nailed on? Definitely not but there are signs. Need the NAO to go to negative. The mean is still 0.3385 even though predicted to go negative. Fine lines and not in FI either.
  25. Stuie
    I don`t think there is any need to over think it, Winter - hunt for cold (chance of warm is next to zero) Summer - vice versa.
×
×
  • Create New...