Summer Sun

Yellow warnings issued for heavy rain tomorrow Issued at: 1120 on Tue 27 May 2014 Valid from: 0400 on Wed 28 May 2014 Valid to: 2355 on Wed 28 May 2014 Rain will become persistent and heavy across parts of north east England on Wednesday, particularly across North and East Yorkshire. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption due to localised flooding. Chief Forecaster's assessment The frontal zone bringing rain to eastern England on Tuesday will move northwards on Tuesday night to become slow-moving across north east England during Wednesday. Rainfall accumulations of over 30 mm in places may cause some minor flooding from rivers or from surface water. Covers Yorkshire & Humber East Midlands East of England http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1401231600&regionName=uk

Down to 12.4c to the 26th 1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

UKMO continues to look very promising for a settled spell to develop with this process getting underway on Thursday From Friday the high continues to build and that set's us up for a nice weekend and this lasts till at least Monday

A cloudy morning with a light breeze, dry currently 13.6c

ECM continues with this growing trend now to a more settled and warmer end to the week

UKMO and GFS are both maintaining a settled end to the week this afternoon, can't rule out the odd isolated shower but on the whole a settled end to the week looks likely at this stage GFS keeps the low further west this afternoon so I wouldn't be surprised if the high hangs around longer on this update UKMO

No change again it remains on 12.5c to the 25th 1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

GFS like UKMO looks promising for a settled spell to develop later this week gradually turns more unsettled from the west during Sunday After an unsettled spell (though not a complete washout) GFS shows pressure falling over Greenland which in turn allows pressure to rise for the UK

A dry and sunny start first one since last Wednesday Currently 14.8c and rising should hit 17 or 18c today

In the shorter term UKMO is looking much more positive for a settled spell to develop with the change starting on Friday

Daily star having another go UK set to hit a SIZZLING 36C as weathermen predict a SCORCHING summer! Hot south-easterly breezes are due to be driven to the UK this summer by high pressure over Scandinavia. The “major factor†in this summer’s weather is said to be warm air arriving from northern central Europe, including Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic. High-altitude Atlantic jet stream winds, which can bring low pressure, are forecast to blow north of the UK, meaning lower rainfall. But the south-west will suffer glancing blows from cooler, wetter weather systems forecast to affect parts of France and Spain this summer. http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/380511/UK-set-to-hit-a-SIZZLING-36C-as-weathermen-predict-a-SCORCHING-summer

Friday and Saturday looking decent for most of England and Wales if ECM is right Can't see that ridge last more than 2 days the low to our north will be with us at t168

Tuesday and Wednesday needs some close attention potential for some heavy rain in some eastern parts (early warnings in place from the met office) not only the rain but low temperatures and an easterly wind will make it feel pretty chilly Still some uncertainties for where the heaviest rain will be on Tuesday but current thinking in Yorkshire, humberside, east Midland and down into the south east The best of the warmth as you can see will be in the west where you have shelter from the easterly wind though it won't necessarily be dry On Wednesday the main rain band may push further north so temperatures in the south may rise slightly but with a lot of cloud and possibly some rain later it would still feel chilly with the easterly feed continuing By Thursday the system should be easing with pressure starting to rise from the north but the UK will be left with a lot of cloud so rain is possible just about anywhere By Friday current suggestions are it will be all change with pressure much higher temperatures will recover to the high teens / low 20's for many though the odd isolated shower can't be ruled out where cloud remains thickest, feeling much warmer in any sunshine So in summary A warm day tomorrow with some thunderstorms cropping up in places but it will be a warm day for many high teens / low 20's (not covered that as Tuesday and Wednesday is more of a concern) Very wet and chilly for some Tuesday and Wednesday A fairly cloudy day Thursday with some rain possible anywhere though the system should be pulling away as pressure rises from the north Friday much more settled with temperatures high teens / low 20's though the odd isolated shower remains possible but feeling much warmer in any sunshine

Early warnings out for Tuesday Issued at: 1034 on Sun 25 May 2014 Valid from: 0005 on Tue 27 May 2014 Valid to: 2359 on Tue 27 May 2014 A prolonged spell of rain, heavy at times, is expected to affect parts of eastern England during Tuesday. The public should be aware of possible disruption, particularly to travel, and possible localised surface water flooding. Chief Forecaster's assessment A frontal zone developing over the Low Countries will start to spread westwards into the UK later on Monday. This frontal zone is then expected to linger over part of eastern England on Tuesday giving a prolonged spell of rain which could see some eastern parts here seeing more than 30 mm of rain in 24 hours. There is still some uncertainty regarding where the highest accumulations will occur, and the area seeing these very high accumulations is likely to be smaller than the area marked in the alert. Yorkshire & Humber East Midlands East of England http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1401145200&regionName=uk Certainly not looking very nice for Tuesday and Wednesday single figure maxes for some eastern coasts best of the sunshine in the west some hints of something more settled by Friday

What a difference a shift to a south easterly wind has made from the slate grey cloud to more broken cloud with some sunshine as a result its feeling warmer today Currently 14.2c

No change again it remains on 12.5c to the 24th 1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

Forecast now available http://youtu.be/h4UD0bqV7rI?t=1s

If GFS is right and its a big if things would warmer towards the end of the week as high pressure builds in send temperatures into the high teens / low 20's for many for a time before low pressure moves in once more Just for fun in FI

UKMO doesn't look too bad either certainly on Friday with a ridge of high pressure building

Yes June can often start cooler and wet its towards mid June when things can start to improve take 1976 as an example the hottest summer ever in the UK with the drought but it didn't get going properly till mid month then by the end of the month high pressure really started to build and so did the heat

Its a case of who is going to be wrong for Monday the latest forecast from the met office says "many parts dry and bright, but scattered heavy showers developing. Rain reaching the southeast later on Monday" However GFS has rain from early morning for some in the south and south east lasting all day its not just one run which has shown this either

No change today it remains on 12.5c to the 23rd 1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

Another cloudy start making it 3 in a row now currently 12.6c and dry

Looking at the models this morning it looks like we could see a ridge of high pressure building later next week though it doesn't hang around too long on this mornings outputs with low pressure to move over the UK at meteorological summer begins GEM delays a breakdown to day 10 with fine and bright weather developing for many before the breakdown GFS is another which shows the ridge of high pressure developing

Interesting run from JMA with it going for a stronger high to develop from t144 unlike the others Not 100% dry but some decent weather for some 850's gradually increase as the high builds in