Summer Sun

UKMO this morning at t144 showing +8 850's in the SE at t144 (t120 850's currently not updated) away from the west and Scotland Tuesday looks like another warm day though unsettled ECM however is much warmer for all at t144 looks pretty wet in parts of the west GEM remaining consistent from previous runs by also keeping the warm air in place at t144 GEM keeps it mostly dry And finally GFS also keeps the warm air over the UK on Tuesday So this morning its UKMO which is on its own for the 850's with all the rest going against it

hmm some big differences between the GFS Op (right) and control run (left) this evening with the control going for a steady rise in the 850's from day 10 the driest weather always looks to be the further north you are

Whilst the other models go for something cooler next week GEM prefers to go a warmer humid route wouldn't rule out some thunder at times if GEM comes off

Looked for all the world it was going to pelt it down around 15:00 but surprise surprise the cloud just moved away at the last minute last chance of some rain till Sunday at the earliest with high pressure building in settling things down and sending the temperature up

11.3 to the 12th 0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

ECM ensemble has certainly remained consistent in a more unsettled outlook of late and now the Op has moved towards it best make the most of the next few days for warmth and sunshine next week looks more unsettled

GEM slowly but surely updating Sunday looks fine for many with pressure remaining fairly high Monday looks best the further north and east you are, remaining warm as well

ECM shows pressure remaining relatively high on Sunday should be a decent day for England and Wales By Monday the low is centered to the SW so the further east you are the drier it could be with the wettest weather in the south west, 850's on the rise again as well with a south easterly flow developing T192 sees the low continuing to move away this then sets up an east to south easterly flow with temperatures continuing to rise any remaining rain becomes restricted to the south west By t216 the low is moving north again so the south west continues to be prone to rain or showers whilst the further north and east you are the drier it would be warmest weather looks to be in the east and north west GEM has failed to update this evening must be a problem with it some where

UKMO shows the warmest air lasting for another day on Sunday for the south with the SE probably seeing the highest temps Rain will slowly move SE wards across the country on Sunday once it clears cooler air will be in place for next week temperatures will be down on those later this week but it'll still be warm in any sunshine most places will see some showers at times but the most persistent rain could be in the west depending on how close to the UK the block to our east is

Some pretty warm air developing on GEM this morning with the high much closer to eastern parts this morning resulting in an south easterly flow The high is close enough to keep it dry for most though some eastern parts look prone to some light rain later with southern and western parts the driest

Piers Corbyn's quote in the express today Piers Corbyn, forecaster for Weather-Action, said Britain could be even in for an "exceptional" hot spell towards the end of the month. He said: "There is a considerable improvement on the way, turning hot towards the middle of the week and into next weekend. "Then right through until the end of the month, it could edge towards heatwave conditions, the next bank holiday is looking exceptionally good. "After that, there are signs it could break down into spectacular thunderstorms." http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/475365/Summer-is-coming-Britain-s-wet-weather-makes-way-for-mini-heatwave That will be part of the "WOW" May he said in his long range forecast

With the wind now significantly lighter across the UK any showers which do pop up today could be torrential and quite prolonged with a chance of some thunder

Thats how this settled spell first developed the Op picked it up and kept with it despite no ensemble support then suddenly the ECM ensemble came on board, going to be a case of wait and see what happens

ECM similar to UKMO by keeping the high going for the start of the weekend warm and dry too away from Scotland Sunday looking fine as well away from NW Scotland and Ireland

GFS brings the breakdown in quicker than UKMO this afternoon away from NW Scotland where cloud and possibly some rain will be more of a feature UKMO gives another warm day for many UKMO the better chart if you want the warmth to continue for the start of the weekend, looking like the first spell of BBQ weather for many is just days away now

up-to 11.4c to the 10th 1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

A closer look at the UK from the ECM Op shows pressure remaining quite high for the east throughout this morning, no ensemble support yet but the settled spell didn't get support for a few days if its still on tonight's 12z its got a chance if its gone then it was probably a rouge run day 10 sees a rise in pressure for most of England and Wales

GFS ens is still going for a pressure rise again from around the 23rd Whilst the other models show low pressure in charge at t192 JMA has other ideas....

ECM and UKMO look pretty close at t144 this evening ECM goes on to give an unsettled weekend with things turning cooler and more unsettled for all The new working week starts how the weekend ends unsettled

850's continue to rise during next week temps will be close to average in NW Scotland but elsewhere it will gradually turn warmer with the SE possibly turning very warm for a time

Yep thats arrived now with an increasing wind and heavy rain

The showers seem to becoming less frequent now in Darlington after a wet spell this morning getting more lengthy spells of sun now A warm day though given the wind it feels cooler than the 15.2c we currently have

up-to 11.3c to the 9th 1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

Amazing how quickly ECM goes from high pressure to low pressure next weekend Looking at the 00z GFS ens the low may not hang around too long The low starts to move in later next weekend By the Monday and Tuesday the low is over all the UK turning it cooler and more unsettled for all By the Thursday hints are pressure starts to rise from the SW once more 24 hours later and the high is back And the high then dominates to the end of the ens run at d16 So low pressure looks likely to return but it may not last all that long if the ens is onto something the pressure ensemble for London is supporting another rise around the 22nd

ECM 12z ensemble gives us 3 settled days next week (Tuesday to Friday) it then starts to turn things more unsettled gradually from the north on Saturday to the end of its run on the Monday