Summer Sun

A cloudy dull day with drizzle at times 10.1c with no breeze

ECM keeps the high going into next week like GFS does so GEM is seemingly on its own this evening for the breakdown on BH Monday A short colder snap later in the week before it becomes milder again from the west during the weekend, Friday into Saturday continues to be the coldest period with a widespread frost probably barring any changes The high starts to drift east slowly WC the 5th but we are always under its influence (see below)

UKMO once more shows pressure rising so a decent BH weekend is looking a good bet at the moment temperatures will be down compared to late it would feel pleasant in any sunshine but chilly overnight especially Friday night into Saturday which looks to be the coldest night of the week with a widespread frost probable unless we see any downgrades to the cold air over the next 72 hours GFS keeps the high going through-out the bank holiday weekend and to the end of the run again temperatures are likely to be down compared to late by day especially early on but given the strong May sunshine it would feel quite pleasant by day in any sunshine. Night time temperatures would be low at first but once the northerly flow gets cut off they should slowly rise after BH Monday GEM on the other hand is looking more unsettled and cooler from BH Monday unlike this morning we can't discount this run of course but it would be best to wait and see what ECM has for this period later on

I said this to you before if you or any one else has a link for the daily CET averages for a specific period then post a link for us to use other wise I shall continue to use the 61 to 90 average as others do if its good enough for the met office and World Met. Organisation its good enough for me From the met office Note that anomalies quoted here are w.r.t. the period 1961-1990. This is the current standard period of reference for climatological data as recommended by the WMO (World Met. Organisation).

10.0c to the 26th 2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

ECM appears to have delayed the cold air till Friday now for England and Wales The colder air then makes inroads on Friday and Saturday though western Ireland and the far south west may not turn too cold if ECM is right By the Sunday milder air spreads over the UK once more and this continues through to the end of its run So the cold air is still shown to arrive but its looks like a short snap of 2 days max for England and Wales with some in the far west possibly avoiding the coldest air UKMO continues to show pressure rising so a decent BH weekend could be on the cards feeling pleasant in any sunshine but chilly overnight to start the BH weekend As for GFS? well thats looking pretty settled through-out from later next week And finally GEM that also follows the rest but it brings in some warm air later +10 850's for some

Yeah we'll just have to see how things pan out the first 10 days don't look too good for May bar the odd short lived settled spell it could be around mid months things settled down giving us our first taste of summer like weather

ECM continuing to show a settled spell developing later next week, but once more it shows a breakdown to more unsettled weather for BH Monday Friday to Sunday will probably see the coldest conditions overnight how cold it gets in the towns and cities remains to be seen but out in the countryside frosts look inevitable wouldn't be surprised to see some of the the towns and cities getting close to 0c especially in the north The run ends with a return to more unsettled weather on BH Monday and the Tuesday GFS ensemble seems to be moving to something more unsettled for BH Monday as well, the ECM ensemble will be interesting later the 00z showed the high lasting through BH Monday we could see the 12z backing off like the GFS has

Slow slosh of warm water across Pacific hints El Niño is brewing - http://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/slow-slosh-warm-water-across-pacific-hints-el-ni%C3%B1o-brewing

Try not to get too downbeat we have a long way to go yet till summer

Looks like a settled end to next week feeling pleasant in the sunshine but cold over night with frosts still looking likely Next week starts warm with Tuesday looking the warmest day Turns cooler in the north on Wednesday staying warm for the south though it could be wetter The cooler air in the north spreads south by Thursday which leads to a frost risk into Friday Temperatures do recover by day over the weekend but fall again overnight with a continued frost risk

May is often a tricky to like April with some pretty big temperature swings I'm going to go for this above average run to continue though it will be a chilly start 12.9c for me just got a hunch we'll see something more settled and warmer developing around mid month

A cloudy day with a few brighter intervals this afternoon 14.7c

ECM ensemble once more this morning is showing pressure rising later next week and through the bank holiday weekend By day 10 both the GFS and ECM ensembles look pretty close with the placement of the high UKMO seems to be following the others this morning at t144 with a steady rise in pressure from the west Next week still looks like it will start quite warm before temperatures gradually fall from the north on Thursday with Friday a cooler day for all, if we get some lengthy spells of sunshine we could see temps in the low 20's for some southern and eastern parts but that is really dependent on cloud cover

I spoke a short time ago regarding cloud cover earlier next week and how high the temps could get well here is a closer look Monday looks quite cloudy away from the west but it should be warm across the south regardless of cloud cover similar for the north though we do have a noticeable cooler zone Now by Tuesday cloud looks thinner in the south and SE if so temperatures could really respond to around 23c if it does break Mid week it should start bright in the east but cloud is shown to gradually increase during the afternoon though the far south east could remain brighter with some western parts also brightening up again its in the east where temperatures hold up with the low 20's possible if it stays bright long enough Thursday looks cloudier for just about all So a mixed week coming up warm to start turning cooler from the north on Wednesday but if the cloud does lift long enough we could see the warmest day of the year so far which is currently 21c Tonight's ECM ensemble still points to a fairly settled BH Monday unlike the op

Before we get to the colder air next week will start on a warm note for many with somewhere in the south possibly getting to around 22 or 23c by Tuesday deepening on cloud cover Wednesday we see temperatures starting to fall in Scotland but it remains warm in the east cloud deepening we could hit the low 20's somewhere By Thursday the cooler air continues to track south into the north of England Midlands south holds onto another warm day though temps would be down on the previous days By early Friday the risk of frosts increases these are the maximum temps day time temps are lower for all Into Saturday and we see the frost risk continuing though temperatures are higher than the 06z (see page 35) Tonight's ECM continues to show pressure rising later next week from the west though Scotland could become more prone to unsettled weather later before this transfers UK wide for bank holiday Monday Still a lot to be resolve yet for how long any pressure rise may last the GFS ensemble looks pretty settled for the BH weekend with big differences between the ECM op and the GFS ensemble on BH Monday

Thunder and lightening reported in South shields

You can also access the old site still for the text forecasts via this link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html - It has said this page will be removed later in the year since the new site went live

A chilly afternoon with persistent rain since around 13:30 9.2c

Warm and thunderyScandinavia remains fineIssued: 0530hrs Friday 25th April 2014 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Thunderstorms continue across Europe Friday A ridge of high pressure builds across south-western Spain and Portugal on Friday bringing fair conditions. North-western Spain has the risk of showers and it will be breezy here too. Thundery showers in eastern Spain clear through the morning, but low pressure brings heavy thundery rain to the Balearics, Corsica and Sardinia throughout the day. France will also see pulses of heavy thundery rain, one area in northern France, and a wider area of storms near the south of France and also extending into the Alps. Unsettled conditions continue to dominate southern Europe, with thunderstorms breaking out and merging into longer periods of rain in Italy, the Balkan states, Greece and Turkey. Southern Germany and the Czech Republic also see thundery rain. High pressure is centred across northern Europe, with Denmark, plus northern parts of Germany and Poland looking dry and warm, although quite breezy. Plenty of sunshine in Norway, Sweden and Finland and generally mild. Saturday It remains very unsettled across Europe on Saturday, with low pressure broadly affecting much of central Europe. A cold front brings heavy thundery rain to northern Spain and Portugal, also extending back through central parts of France. Southern Spain is drier with sunshine, with a better day also in store for the Balearics. Italy and the Adriatic is very unsettled with heavy falls of rain and thunderstorms. The Greek Islands fare better with some warm sunshine and a few showers. Showers and warmth too in Turkey, and looking dry for Cyprus. Northern France is blustery with lots of showers, with a few showers reaching Belgium and the Netherlands. The Alpine states, Germany and Poland are very warm, but with thunderstorms breaking out. High pressure over Russia and Scandinavia brings fair conditions, with sunshine in Norway and Sweden. The very far north may see a few snow showers. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

Could be some troublesome frosts around later next week for Gardeners if GFS is right these are the maximum temperatures for later next week Minimum temperatures for the same time If GFS was to be right it would be very cold for the time of year especially so out in the sticks Gardeners and Farmers need to keep a close eye on later next week the temperatures above could be quite damaging for crops The risk of any wintery precipitation looks low away from high ground in Scotland The longer term prospects remain unchanged with high pressure shown to build in later next week allowing temperatures to recover slowly Beyond the BH weekend it looks more uncertain but we could see a return to something more unsettled in the north how far south this would get who knows but you can below the difference in air pressure on the ensemble for Aberdeen and London

ECM ensemble showing a nice rise in pressure later next week and into the weekend with temperatures slowly recovering after the cold snap

Although starting with lower than normal temps all signs currently are a rise in pressure later next week

ECM following the rest in giving us a warm start to next week especially so in any lengthy spells of sunshine midweek sees some cooler air just coming into northern Scotland but the south holds onto the warmest air for another day Beyond the cold snap the GFS ensemble is showing a rise in pressure just in time for the BH weekend

Before we get to any cooler snap next week starts on a warm note for many though we'll still have some rain around for some By Wednesday it turns colder in Scotland but it remains warm for England and Wales with the highest temperatures probably towards London and the SE By Thursday temperature tumble for all but the far south though ever here they'll be down on the previous days Continued signals again this afternoon for a rise in pressure later next week though temperatures will still be lower than average initially