Summer Sun

What does that mean for the UK? ECM showing a breakdown next weekend with things turning very unsettled Before that Wednesday ad Thursday looks very settled and pleasant Friday looks settled for most with the high clinging

Yep very much what the precipitation data is showing for week 2 wettest in the NW and Ireland driest the further SE you go Next week is an improving picture with the rain turning more showery Mon and Tues before the high gets in control by Wednesday how long it'll last who knows but the northerly GFS was showing at day 10 has now gone

Another settled run from UKMO with it showing the high moving in from the SW during Tuesday with it quickly moving across the UK UKMO has the high stronger at t144 compared to GFS BBC weather also talking about the pressure rise next week now on the forecasts Monday and Tuesday starts on a showery note some sunshine around but from Wednesday onwards high pressure starts to build settling down and turning much warmer

Somehow we managed to avoid all the showers today here in Darlington had a fairly strong wind for the time of year seems to be brightening up more now with a decent area of blue sky moving in Looks like tomorrow will start on a wet note before brightening up during the morning with the sunshine possibly triggering some heavy showers

11.2c to the 8th 1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

GFS 06z goes from high pressure to a northerly in 24 hours GEM on the other hand goes for very warm and humid conditions instead of a northerly The met office continue to suggest a breakdown through the latter part of next weekend and into the following week with more unsettled and cooler conditions arriving similar to what GFS and ECM are showing

GFS ensembles very much promoting a settled spell developing with a peak shown to be the 16th this morning before a breakdown occurs around the 19th though pressure doesn't fall below 1010mb with hints of another rise to around 1020mb later next week

This is more like it from UKMO it started its move to ECM yesterday afternoon and this morning its fully on board now with all of the UK becoming settled and pleasantly warm high teens to low 20's is more than good enough for me its only late May after all ECM and UKMO now pretty much in agreement at t144 So after some uncertainty it looks like ECM was on the money after all

The ECM ensemble starts to build the high in during Tuesday from the south west By mid week most of England and wales is under the high temperatures wouldn't be spectacularly high but given the strong sun now it would be very pleasant in any sun By Thursday the high is shown to edge a bit further north allowing the bulk Scotland to settle down By the Friday the high tracks further south again leaving the best of the weather for England and wales again it would continue to feel quite pleasant in any sunshine Similar to this mornings ensemble a breakdown stays at days 9 and 10

GFS ensemble looking the best this evening for warmth and settled weather fair to say the ECM Op is more unsettled especially from t192 quiet a change from the 00z ensemble which had the high over the UK up-to and including t216 will be interesting to see this evenings ensemble run later on

GFS ensemble shows the high moving in for mid week as per ECM from the past few days with things turning progressively warmer (though no heatwave just very pleasant) By Friday its dominating This continues through the weekend By day 12 it starts to move away but it doesn't look like turning too unsettled with hints of the high rebuilding for the south at the end ECM continues to look settled for most of England and wales mid next week though Scotland and Northern Ireland looks like it could remain unsettled with the low preventing the high from getting further north this continues on Thursday as well Changes to ECM with the positioning of the high which was to be expected but the general agreement from the models looks to be an improving picture for England and Wales around mid week

You have to laugh at times with GFS look at the differences in just 24 hrs From one extreme to another in a matter of hours After a settled spell GEM has the low to the north of the UK pushing south On the other hand GFS at day 10 is completely different Still lots to be resolved but a change to something more settled next week appears to be gaining some momentum this afternoon

Steady run from GFS so far following on nicely from its 06z update an unsettled start to next week looks almost certain but high pressure starts to move in from the south west during Tuesday UKMO has started to move towards the rest though the positioning of the low in the Atlantic is still open to debate with UKMO having it much closer to the UK as a result the high only really builds for the south whereas GFS and ECM keep it a lot further west allowing pressure to rise for just about all Still some disagreements this afternoon but its a start with UKMO greatly improved compared to this time yesterday We've gone from this To this in 24 hours GEM trickling out it too also looks like rising pressure during next week

11.0c to the 7th 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

ECM ensemble showing things becoming more settled during next week with high pressure moving up from the south the ensemble shows the high moving away west at day 10 allowing things to turn slightly more unsettled especially the further north you are

Still big differences between UKMO and ECM for early next week UKMO at t120 at t144 ECM for the same time Up to and including t192 ECM maintains its high pressure though northern Scotland looks prone to unsettled weather Its at t216 and t240 its backed away will be interesting to how this sits with the ensemble run later

ECM ensemble continues to show high pressure building in next week with the 850's slowly rising Something is going to give its just a matter of time one or maybe more of the models is wrong but which will it be

Still no agreement from the models with ECM not backing down from its pressure rise yet GEM, GFS and UKMO also not backing away from the unsettled start to the week rather confusing it has to be said

ECM isn't backing down from its pressure rise this evening Unusual to see such big differences between ECM and UKMO at t144 ECM is certainly consistent at the moment doesn't mean it will be right of course considering how different it is to the rest I'll be amazed if its called next week right if it has then hats off to it

It has to be said ECM looks very isolated this afternoon at t144 with GEM, GFS and UKMO all going against its pressure rise UKMO doesn't develop the deep low to the west of Ireland like GFS, GEM & ECM instead it sends a 1000mb low towards the south Hats off to ECM if it keeps the high later on but it wouldn't surprise me if it moves away from it given how isolated it looks

Given that ECM still has no support for its pressure rise early next week I wouldn't be surprised if it back tracks this evening if it doesn't then it will continue to look very isolated with GFS UKMO and GEM all going against it UKMO wouldn't arrive till later in the week as per today's text update GFS FI looking very unsettled with the short spell of warm air moving east

The rain is a lot more patchy than I was expecting today its coming over in showers rather than a lengthy band Quite breezy again and cooler than it was yesterday at 13.3c currently

What a stunning run from ECM this morning with high pressure galore from Wednesday week with the 850's becoming increasingly higher as the run progresses ECM ensemble continues to show a pressure rise So another solid run from ECM from both its Op and Ensemble GFS control in FI looking very warm and humid for the time of year for a time

ECM ensemble slowly coming on board now appears the Op was over cooking the low at t240 with the ensemble clearly going for high pressure rather than low pressure

Met office response to the Daily Mirror There are reports this morning in the Daily Mirror of a heatwave heading to the UK by the middle of the month and sticking around for a fortnight. So is it true? Well possibly. However the forecast, provided to the Mirror by Exacta Weather, is far more definite than the Met Office would be willing to predict so far in advance. There looks to be a general trend in 10-15 days of high pressure taking over. That should lead to more settled, drier and warmer conditions. However, confidence levels are too low to say for certain and the Met Office (the UK's main forecaster) only predict up to 5 days with confidence. Although in the UK there is no official definition of a heatwave the World Meteorological Organisation definition is "when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C". London's average daytime maximum temperatures in the middle of May are 17C. Therefore to constitute a heatwave we would need to see 5 consecutive days with temperatures peaking above 22C. However, the Met Office said it was "far too early to tell" if London would experience a heatwave. "You may have seen some reports this morning that Britain is likely to see much warmer than average weather lasting over two weeks into the beginning of June," a spokesperson said. "However, although there are early signals that that there is a very small probability that mainland Europe could see warmer than average temperatures by the end of May, it is far too early to tell if this will extend as far Northwest as the UK." http://www.itv.com/news/london/2014-05-06/is-a-heatwave-on-its-way-to-london/