Gordon Webb
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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Doesn't seem as bad/good as it was yesterday -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes I did and very useful it is but I am spending the day at home hopefully watch England crush the Aussies and as the forecast isn't for them to be that widespread so I hope to stay dry and according to the Latest News 24 forecast my odds I think are 60%-40% in my favour so here's hoping -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Latest News 24 forecast has the focus for any storms across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire possibly Derby and Nottingham drifting into east Anglia later on with a chance on the sussex coast as well they think so most other places staying dry which is shown by Bobby on the previous page with the ECM storm forecast / prediction very small chance of a storm at the Ashes test match -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
don't us storm haters get a good luck -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
wasn't overly worried until the last few posts -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I hope he's right as well as I am just West of the risk zone he highlighted by 20 miles or so (not sure if that's enough) but hopefully will be , just 12 hours of anxiety to go -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I'm not unhappy about this forecast As I'm sure most are aware by now Thunderstorms terrify me so this is not a bad forecast even if the BBC still like to focus the showers/storms at my location which does have me a little concerned -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
a better opportunity you say on Wednesday but the Cape and LI are lower so I assume other elements come into play on Wednesday You just have to look at Northern England yesterday to see that was the case -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Forecast for the Midlands is the chance of an isolated heavy shower during the afternoon , Thunder does not even get mentioned Met office site has the thunderstorm symbol for Wednesday in the London area -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
True enough -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
precipitation rates are not really much not really anything exceptional though but the area ties in quite nicely it seems with this http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/253 still seems you will be unlucky or lucky depending on your point of view if you catch anything tomorrow -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Latest BBC forecast is not too encouraging for those wanting storms showing the worst over east parts of the midlands and into lincs pretty much confirming that from the post above and even the BBC states that most will stay dry -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
well for the sake of balance I hope for the most boring quiet uninteresting day there could possibly be -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
BBC 1 news forecast had possible storms/showers in the midlands and NE England (Hope Not The Midlands) with the risk transferring south during the afternoon/evening I have to assume something to do with the CF pushing the hotter air but I really have no idea If you want get a forecast as accurate as the BBC/Met Office I suggest you get a map of england 6 drawing pins then close your eyes and point and you may come with a forecast just as accurate then again forecasts like this even with all the ingredients do not always come to much (Hopes) -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Read it still not sure I grasp it Does that really mean the bottom of any storm cloud could be a few thousand feet high and not right at the surface or have it read it wrong and what difference does that make to weather on the ground -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards
Gordon Webb replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
There goes my plans for tomorrow just stay in my bedroom and hope I don't see any -
Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13
Gordon Webb replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well it looks like the met office stating we'd have cooler wetter summers for the next few years their plan of Reverse psychology has worked -
Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
Gordon Webb replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well at least the Daily Star Has a more sensible take on it than the Express which as usual with a story like this goes into overdrive with predictions here there and everywhere certainly was , seems to get around a bit , well after forecasting this for years on end he was going to get it right sooner or later -
Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13
Gordon Webb replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Met office have issued Heat-health watch Level 2 - Alert and Readiness Heat-health watch Key: [*]Region not included [*]Summer preparedness and long-term planning [*]Alert and readiness [*]Heatwave action [*]National Emergency Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness Issued at: 0859 on Thu 11 Jul 2013 There is a 70 % probability of heatwave conditions between 1200 on Friday and 2000 on Sunday in parts of England. Temperatures are expected to climb close to heatwave thresholds across the East Midlands and Yorshire and the Humber regions during Friday and Saturday, then the highest temperatures transfer southwards to affect East of England, Southeast England, London and parts of Southwest England during Saturday and Sunday. West Midlands may also get close to heatwave criteria, mainly towards Birmingham and Warwick, with the warmest temperatures on Saturday. An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map [*]Level 1[*]Level 2[*]Level 3[*]Level 4[*]Heatwave threshold values[*]Regional risk values Yellow — Alert and readiness Triggered as soon as the risk is 60% or above for threshold temperatures being reached in one or more regions on at least two consecutive days and the intervening night. This is an important stage for social and healthcare services who will be working to ensure readiness and swift action to reduce harm from a potential heatwave. Advice: Heatwaves can be dangerous, especially for the very young, very old or those with chronic diseases. If you want more information about hot weather and your health please visit www.nhs.uk. If you are concerned about your health or somebody you care for, please contact NHS Direct on 0845 4647, www.nhsdirect.nhs.uk or your local pharmacist. EDIT - map isn't displaying properly please go here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/ -
Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13
Gordon Webb replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
probably change again long before the weekend is upon us and besides whenever I've seen forecasts for cold fronts to come down from the north and interact with warmer air like this It's never been as bad as forecast and this also contrasts with it's own monthly outlook of having patchy rain in the north and dry and fine weather further south -
Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13
Gordon Webb replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
something negative eh well the days are drawing in so less time to enjoy it -
Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13
Gordon Webb replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
if I saw a naked picture of Ann Widdecombe I'd be praying for low cloud , fog ,blinds, solar eclipses , fantastic sun glasses the works anything but that -
Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13
Gordon Webb replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Even when the breakdown occurs bearing in mind the heatwave/hot weather hasn't even started yet it's by no means a disaster it seems it'll just turn cooler not cold and not really a washout or am I judging this incorrectly ? -
Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13
Gordon Webb replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS = giving fluctuating statistics -
Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13
Gordon Webb replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
the press probably overdoing it as normal and now they have reported the heatwave they'll probably have jinxed it