Mapantz
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33mph gust here, not too long ago. My new quad copter has arrived! I won't be flying today though, not unless @karlos1983 can catch it when it drifts his way.
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A nice, sunny day, but very windy. Gusting to 31mph. Temp: 10.8°C - Hum: 70% - Dew: 5.5°C - Bar: 1012.80hPa - Wind: WNW @ 10mph.
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Yeah - I thought the same as soon as I saw Ian's tweet. I always love this thread when its busy, much fun!
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With daytime maxes like this on Friday, combined with the strong Northwesterly- that will feel mighty cold!
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That looks pretty tasty!
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It depends what you're worried about, kent? If you're worried that it won't snow in Poole, I completely understand lol As it stands now, many areas across the region could see some flakes of snow, the best chances look to be further inland, but that doesn't rule out a bit of wintriness for our part of the region, late on Thursday, as the feature moves East. It'll simply come down to the radar, your own stations readings and your eyes.
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It looks as though the GFS 18Z must be similar to their way of thinking at Exeter, as the feature is more pronounced and slightly further North, allowing more of the colder air to get wrapped in behind it?! There could be some lucky beggars in here on Thursday eve!
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IMBY is absolutely fine in our thread, as long as we share?
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One thing's for sure, I expect a fair ol' drop of rain on Thursday..
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Absolute beauty from the ECM tonight!
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Yep - NwWx MR only goes for rain grazing Southern counties at the moment . Still too early to be definitive, but its a very tricky set up to begin with.
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On this occasion, that is not the case. The cold air will already be in place, we need that cold air to be pulled in and to undercut for snow to fall. If the development is further south, then it will be rain grazing the South coast. If the development is further North, then it will still be rain for most, except on the northern edge- the dreaded M4 will be mentioned.
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I'm gonna stick my head on the line by saying this will be a 100% rain event along the coasts, even marginal slightly further inland. Higher ground is the obvious choice, but if the cold air doesn't dig in quick enough, you're talking 0.5 - 1cm/hr snow rates. These precip charts are not painting the full picture.
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Cold air not digging in quick enough behind it.. Just left with this..
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Also worth noting, a chance of thunder mixed in with showers that affect parts of our region on Thursday.
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At the very least, its nice to be within a shout, even if it doesn't produce the goods for the South coast, as an example. 'A' chance is better than no chance at all. A very good chance the further inland you are, though.
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Worth stressing this: Probably sensible not to get carried away.
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You beat me to it- shocked, I was..
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In the space of 24 hours.. All academic and speculative of course. Condition today.. Temp: 8.6°C - Hum: 82% - Dew: 5.7°C - Bar: 1013.75hPa - Wind: WNW @ 6mph.
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It would probably bring some wintry showers to the South coast, but the flow quickly turns to the South and the cold air gets cut off, resulting in a rapid change to heavy rain- if it were to verify exactly like that.
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No wonder it has 'Express' in their banner. The MetO's matrix suggests a low impact.
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Rather nice for Dartmoor and other high ground areas..
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Interesting, the MetO showing 40mph + gusts for here, on Thursday. I cannot recall a Northwesterly gusting that high, for this part of Dorset.
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EWN's take on the WRFDA
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It was me being a little obtuse to be fair, i'm not a fan of the M4 being used. It would be better if it was "North or South of Lacock"
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