Mapantz

Well .. that was quite an unreal early morning down here. Strongest winds i've witnessed in quite a few years. Damage all over the place, including my own garden. Two friends in hospital from falling trees. Rain has just poured through my front door and soaked carpets. Trees down, power has been out etc .. I would just like to tip my hat to those folks who were posting on here last night saying 'Just an averge Winter storm' or 'It's downgraded, nothing more than a windy night' I don't claim to be an expert, but i can read certain aspects of the models. But to start saying it wasn't going to be anything special a good 10 hours before winds peaked is outrageous. Especially when you knock the MO for their warnings.

I just wanted to add, i think the MO have done a sterling job over the last 10 days or so. It seems they're damned if they do, and damed if they don't. That aside, gales developing nicely off of the Southern tip of Ireland, more gusty winds to come along the channel, some exposed areas seeing perhaps 60mph along the coast. Enjoy!

That's why the internet can be a negative thing when you're a weather lover! I was less disappointed when i was back in my teens, because i couldn't follow any information, as i didn't have the internet. Now that i have, i tend to see everything that misses me.

It does seem a little disappointing i guess, but there's still time for slight changes. Either way, they'll be allsorts of elements getting thrown at us. Particularly this evening and tonight. Hail/thunder, tornado potential again too. I'm on my 6th hail storm of the past 24hrs lol Enjoy what we get anyway! It could end up pretty dull and boring over the xmas period.

I posted the link five minutes ago .. Despite what Laura Tobin showed all through her forecast, the end result was 'still some uncertainty' So i would say her forecast was done using model data from this morning, whereas the Chief Forecaster probably did that video with more up to date runs.

See for yourself ..

The Met Office have released another video. They are confident now that will miss the Southern England, and the wind watches have been confined to Southern coastal counties. Breezy and wet down here i would say.

No similarities? I firmly disagree with that. Pressure might be different, but there's a whole load of similarities! Where both the 87 low, and the current progged low comes from, is an area that suffers from a lack of data. Not surprising the models are all over the place, they were back in 87, and look what happened.

Rain isn't anything special here, despite the warnings. Barely drizzling. lol

I spoke to them not long ago, they've said there are no amber warnings in force at the moment, but they are monitoring the situation carefully.

Coastal stretches from Dorset to Kent are likely to see gusts of 70mph, perhaps higher. Their warnings fall quite nicely with the last GFS run.

Is it me, or do the MO warnings keep changing? They removed the Western/South Western warnings for a time, and now they're back again. Perhaps it's a glitch?

Met Office have changed their warnings agian.

Turned out to be rubbish here. No gusty winds with that squall line for me, and just a few spots of rain.

Quite agree, i definitely wouldn't say light winds. Ok, not as pokey as Northern parts, but gales will develop in the channel.

Charts with blue like that are deceiving, don't get too excited. :unsure:

That's because the overlay comes straight from that lightning detection software.

Not according to this one , and i treat this as one of the most accurate. Not a single sferic since the early hours.

I can see the darkness over your way, my webcam points in that direction. Really nice bronze colours in the cloud formations too.

Interestingly, there's not been any electrical activity since the early hours of this morning.

I've missed everything today, extremely unlucky.

I think i'm in the only dry spot of Dorset right now. It's passing me by about quarter of a mile to my West.

I think the radar needs calibrating or something. According to the postcode zoom for my area, i'm under a red to white blob, had a couple of drops that lasted less than 15 seconds, and the sun is out. Doesn't seem right to me! :wacko:

To be brutally honest, i think a few of you are getting a bit carried away with the bulk moving up from the channel. An NVA lobe is progged around Sussex/Kent, this is likely to bring down the rainfall rates, most probably the heaviest right on the coast of Kent and up in to East Anglia. Not saying there won't be some heavier bursts about, but otherwise, the MO would have an advisory out on this by now.