Eskimo

Almost a shame that Monday's system is modelled to bring patchy rain. If it was heavier, it would sure be snow from evaporative cooling due to entrenched cold.

White out here in south birmimgham. Alreacy a cm in about 15 mins.

Looks like stall point will be a line from just north of birmingham to Peterborough. Kind of snow falling that's useless for a snowman - very dry! (But lets be honest, who cares!)

Latest icon sticking to its guns wrt snow distribution.

Well they would say that

Latest WRF takes the band as far north as south yorkshire

I just can't see it being that far south and west based on the radar returns. Think we'll get a much better idea by about midnight.

Okay, so...the direction and exit point of the trough hasn't really changed much in the output, the differences in precipitation boundaries are to down to circulation. If we take the direction of the trough and combine the northern limit of the precipitation in Ireland across and down through England, you get something like below - quite similar to recent output to be honest. The northern limit would be somewhere around Stoke. However, the heaviest falls would be across through the West Midlands and down into the Home counties. The southern limit would be the black line as the precipitation is above the circulation. There won't be issues with marginality for the vast majority of us so where the front stalls, pivots and slowly sinks south, I can see some significant snow falling. This technique worked a few weeks ago when Wales got hit by quite a bit of snow, however...I am in no way saying this will work again!

I'll do some analysis later on my thoughts for the track now I can see the northern limit on the precip in Ireland. Matching that up with the forecast exit point of the trough will give a goid indication where the northern limit will be across England.

Almost full model agreement now. Although, models are only a guidance really, real world could still present a different view.

Better not go any further north

Yup. Birmingham hitting the grand prize.

Latest ICON has it a smidgen further north as well. Sweet spot being the West Midlands again, although the true pivot area is the London home counties. Snow by midnight Monday shows that slight shunt. 5-15cm widely.

Majority of the GFS Ens (60-70%) have the band reaching around the West Midlands. 10% have it going South Yorkshire(!?) and 20-30% have it crossing southern central.

WRF has the pivot around Leicester into Birmingham. It's modelling up to 15-20cm in the West Midlands. (probably overdoing it a touch)

GEM has it much further north than it's previous iteration

I remember a similar system a couple of years ago gave Swindon about 6" of snow.

In the next 6 hours the system will be in full range of the radar. That's when it's possible to see if the models have grasped its position at the early stages.

I think wherever the band of snow hits tomorrow, there will a good couple of hours of heavy snow and quick accumulation. It should be quite an active trough for a time as it moves through. It will be interesting to see where the pivot zone is as I think those areas could see 10cm or more.

Think they are updating the warning area for today. Can take 30 mins after cancellation.

Got approx 4cm in about 90 minutes so not too bad. Came down very, very heavy at one point

2.2C here with a DP of 0.7C. Marginal but expecting the system out west to drag it down considerably.

This really is an evaporative cooling type event. Still raining here but expecting snow once the larger feature passes through!

Heavy ice pellets here. Ground soaked!

Really struggling to get anything in the Birmingham area.