Eskimo

No, it's forecast to move NNE, the northward extent being more prominent than the easterly extent - much of SE UK will miss much of the precip.

Precipitation along the airmass border is start to sharpen up a little

Cold air is now filtering into Shropshire.

WRF giving it a good go...

Example of how sharp that cold front is (Ellesmere) - classic shorts & t-shirt at 12pm, big coat at 12:15 type weather

Certainly a chance of a fairly brief spell of very wet snow on the back edge of the precipitation band as the colder air undercuts when the low's circulation tightens up. Any snowfall likely to come from evaporative cooling as I think any surface conditions (ie. dew points) are still the wrong side of marginal so it will depend on how heavy any precipitation is over your location. Settling snow will be harder due to relatively warm ground temperatures, however snow will settle on vegetation if it's particularly heavy (therefore no risk to public safety). Highest risk being Shropshire hills and Peak District (ie. anywhere above 300m) - inline with 0C isotherm as the front moves through.

Sun is poking out here!

SOON BE SPRING!!

That's what I mean. I feel indifferent either way as, like you mentioned, it's just standard fare for us each Winter anyway. However, compared to what we saw being modelled several days ago for around the 20th, the ECM is producing some unremarkable stuff for cold/snow (at the moment). We'll see what the next frames have to show.

We've gone from potential easterly/north easterly to damaging winds. The UK climate ladies and gentleman.

Temperature rising. Got down to -1.0C, now it's -0.3C.

Back below freezing here now. Amazes me how quick the air can warm up when initial conditions are very conducive of snow.

Cold out there, nearly an ice day here with a high of 0.4C. Trending back down but obviously expecting a rise in the early hours.

Unlikely to get anything across much of the Midlands now, the dry air from the east is rapidly sucking the life out of the front. I wouldn't feel too much dismay as even the peak district has barely a covering.

We had a sudden drop from 8.3C to around 5C within an hour at about 6am and we are now currently sitting at around 3C here in south Birmingham with a steady drop.

It doesn't look tremendously bad, most of the rain will be, at worst, moderate going into tomorrow. Models are predicting up to 30mm in places but widely 15-25mm.

Arome further south and west 18z 12z

Interesting weather regardless. You have rain spilling in from the West and when you look at the radar there doesn't appear to be any discernible separation of the cold/mild air. However, this rain is hurtling over a collision of airmasses further down the atmosphere. Denser, colder air is currently sitting over eastern England with a separation somewhere around Birmingham - in fact, Tamworth just up the road is recording 3C, so the line looks to be smack down the middle of the city.

4C in Coventry, just 25 miles up the road here in south birmingham it's 9C. Mad!

Looks okay to me? Snow still there for Thursday and the low is much further south for next tuesday

Spoiling it for who? The Midlands north would be under feet of snow

Aint gonna happen is it. When was the last time we saw 24 hours of heavy snow?

That will do nicely - i mean, not for the south mind you.

The GFS is bloody off on one again!

Only one way this can go now - lows forced southward, opening the doors for the cold from the NE. (I touched wood as to not jinx it)