Eskimo

Dewpoint gone negative. -0.3C DP, 3.9C T

Dew point coming down quite rapidly but temperature just steadily decreasing - the drier Arctic air is coming.

Here's that finger of higher dew points which will likely scupper any snow chances away from the far West of the region unless you get heavier bursts of precipitation, then that dew point will come down.

Just doing a bit of analysis on what the charts are suggesting. Based on the parameters that we have for the overnight period it really is marginal for most unless you get heavy bursts of precipitation. We had a very similar set up a few years ago in Birmingham - in the centre it was sleeting (~100m asl) and as you climbed up towards the higher regions further west (Quinton, Bearwood etc.) at around 200m, it was pasting it down and white everywhere. In fact, you can see the centre of the city up on Warley Hill (~250m) and it was grey/green down below - bizarre. If you live in the River valleys of Severn, Nene, Avon or Trent then your best bet is heavier bursts which may give temporary accumulations. Anywhere within the 'West Midlands Plateau', the Cotswolds (obviously) and up towards the foothills of the Peaks have the best chance as dew points/freezing levels are much lower. Anywhere east of Leicester, you'll be primarily be experiencing higher dew points due to north sea modification and just generally being on flatter land so probably be difficult to see anything more than sleet.

First of all snow across Scotland https://www.lochmorlich.com/webcam

Yes a major city with a population of 300,000 and wider area spanning well over a million people and nothing from the large broadcasters. Not many people will have the metoffice app so news articles are the best awareness.

When was the last red warning for wind?

Some flabby heights in Scandinavia, but with too much energy riding over the top, it's only going to go one way.

Icons low res precip charts are diabolical.

Windchill widely -5C to -9C.

Low on Saturday night not as deep but has a period of stronger winds on its western flank. Whilst the air is fairly cold, it's still being sourced across a relatively warm North Sea, so I'd imagine there would be considerable modification so snow would be hard to come by away from highest hills etc. Just looking at the parameters and if we were to take this evolution as gospel, likely sleet 100-200m and snow inland on hills. Rain along a large portion of eastern England and low levels.

Low slightly further east on the GEM (similar to GFS) and consequently the warm sector as well. This means colder air swinging into the western half of the UK quicker which could increase snow chances, especially across much of Wales. Definite trend to swing that Low down the North Sea.

So some places getting snow, largely to highest ground with cooler than average temps and a brisk wind everywhere else. Perhaps sleet in places 150m+ but low ground exclusively seeing rain. Seems very normal for the time of year. Standard PM incursions (for now).

Another dump of snow forecast for the midlands, although with marginal uppers it will rely on elevation and precip intensity.

Significantly below average with majority support. I get people want something special but if we take this as gospel, 850s ~5C below the long-term average screams significant potential to me.

Reload?

Stays cold with the pool over us, but cold air from the Arctic now largely cut off due to the toppling high.

Been an ever-occurring feature that snow-slider, travelling through central England into the SE. Pops up, disappears, then pops up again.

If anything, the slack winds will produce some bitter nights for Scotland (> -10C?) pretty cold for the time of year.

Looking at the radar returns, I'll summise that anything severe ie. Large hail, frequent c2g lightning etc is going to be rather limited away from the far SE corner with the biggest threat really being rainfall - the channel is killing the energy and we've seen that more often than not. A lot of elevated stuff is likely though tonight with frequent c2c lightning and gusty winds.

I had thought it was snow, but knowing it was actually hail, that could happen in the middle of Summer as well. I've seen hail settle readily in the middle of July.

Well statistically this will likely be the coldest April I've seen - coldest since 1989 if I've checked the data properly.

which match?

Yup, even if there's no immediate cold weather, anything cold showing in the models normally keeps me going. However, there's none of that either.

Well, temperatures have now peaked above freezing and looks to remain that way for at least the next 10 days.