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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Mark Neal. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This would keep everyone happy! -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Mark Neal. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On this run much of Northern France stays really cold uppers. 12z had the low pressure move up from Iberia and bring much less colder uppers (hardly mild! lol) This run it is very cold still. Inter run variance but still a common theme is the lp moving up from South details still to come. But encouraging for Southern areas and with the North under a unstable airflow. Win Win? 12Z- LEFT. 18Z RIGHT. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Mark Neal. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Mark Neal. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Obviously precip will be picked up much closer to the time for details etc.. But encouraging that models such as GFS/ECM are now picking up on the cold flow, for convectional purposes even though they don't always take this account. It certainly ain't forecasting to be dry thats for sure, Troughs around, showery airstream from East. Then fronts approaching from S/SW/E. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Mark Neal. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
144Hrs. Looks lovely! Notice the isobars beginning to tighten across the UK (especially to the south). That system to the South closes in but edges further east in process than the previous 12z. Great heights to the NW and Greenland. -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Mark Neal. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM monthly sounds promising! @fergieweather Brrrr. An overall cold Feb unfolds according to latest ECMWF 30d modelling, with risk of E'ly flow developing further into the month. An interesting forecasting period ahead, on many levels... -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Mark Neal. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Have to agree. As someone who rarely posts in there and watches on the posts have got signifcantly worse my some. its a real shame as quality posters in there such as Steve Murr, Blue Army, Nick Sussex, Tamara etc... but if you haven't been on for a while you think 7 pages yipeee. scroll through and its arguments or trolling, feel sorry for the mods! It seems an endless task.