wimblettben
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Posts posted by wimblettben
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The only slight hope I have right now is that some of the latest Cape charts give us a decent amount of the stuff for a time around 9:00PM or midnight so although still not to the levels the southeast is expected to get later its still better then having zero.
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Just now, SouthwestChaser said:
Probably clutching straws but, any chance those Brittany cells will reach us? It's been RUBBISH so far. I NEED A GOOD STORM.
Way too far I would have thought.
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9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
From all the forecasts I saw you were never really in with much of a shout. Perhaps this morning but that was fairly contentious.
we were in this boat last week, now 7 days later we are on the zone … it totally can happen
keep faith!
I had a different impression from what I have been seeing on forecasts over the last few day's.
There has been a risk of thundery showers for here since Friday evening, just that the main intense stuff was suppose to be for today into this afternoon.
Just got to hope that we get some unexpected stuff in the next 12 or so hours now otherwise this event for here has definitely been one of our worst busts for thunderstorms.
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Nothing here through this whole 24hr period other than on and off outbreaks of rain.
Not happy about the prospects for tonight now as at the last minute the risk of storms for our area has completely vanished.
Knew everything would shift further east as the time came, as it alway's does.
Should have trusted what my gut was telling me last night when people were giving me hopes that today and tonight would be better.
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Difficult to know what to do right now.
Not sure whether to stay up tonight in case something shows up or take most of my chances tomorrow but risk most of the lightning activity being confined to the south and southeast.
I don't see any point for me personally staying up for this as I worry that the lightning is just going to hang about the channel to the south of England and not be able to make it's way up here before the night is finished.
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Hope something happens tonight before the main stuff tomorrow otherwise we ain't seeing any nighttime storms this time around unfortunately.
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Latest Met Office Video Forecast Barely mentioned any lightning over the next day or two, mostly just heavy rain or showers with risk of flooding.
Looked like most of anything for our bit is going to be tomorrow during the day so I think our chances of any night time stuff is decreasing. No mention of anything thundery tonight like it mentioned yesterday with now just more of the same that we have at the moment which is just yucky overcast skies and bits of light rain.
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13 minutes ago, Jamie M said:
Tony Gilbert's risk for tomorrow from UKWW
Just a slight risk?
Not great chances for most places going by that forecast apart from the southeast.
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I could see a distant storm here that I think was in Mid Wales yesterday evening.
Started being able to see lightning as it got darker but there seemed to be more cloud to ground to start with and then as it got later it was more intra-cloud but couldn't here any thunder.
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Pictures of the mid Wales storm before it got dark and I could see the lightning from it.
Probably one of the widest anvils I have ever seen.
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We had distant lightning and faint rumbles of thunder here to the West last night around 12:00AM and 1:30AM.
It was probably the best visible strikes of forked lightning I have seen since we moved here. If someone had taken pictures they would have looked very good.
One of the forked bolts was a vibrant white colour and it looked much closer then it actually was because it was so big.
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Surprised no one noticed the distant lightning and faint rumbles of thunder to the West last night around 12:00AM and 1:30AM.
Probably the best visible strikes of forked lightning I have seen since we moved here. If someone had taken pictures they would have looked very good.
One of the forked bolts was a vibrant white colour and it looked much closer then it actually was because it was so big.
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Spent most of the early hours awake and measuring the wind up our local hill in around Brongest.
Wasn't as bad as I'd feared thankfully and looks like any damage was limited to leaves and twigs everywhere but I still had a max of 41.5mph and a few more of 40mph or 41mph and with most gusts in the 30's mph.
Was quite loud standing next to the ash tree that's up there when the biggest gusts came but it sounded more amazing then it usually does in the Winter when there are no leaves on the tree and you just get that usual howling sound.
I am also not sure if i saw two flashes of lightning for a very short period to the south around midnight as i first wen't out and i was making my way up the hill.
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Spent most of the early hours awake and measuring the wind up our local hill.
Wasn't as bad as I'd feared thankfully and looks like any damage was limited to leaves and twigs everywhere but I still had a max of 41.5mph and a few more of 40mph or 41mph and with most gusts in the 30's mph.
Was quite loud standing next to the ash tree that's up there when the biggest gusts came but it sounded more amazing then it usually does in the Winter when there are no leaves on the tree and you just get that usual howling sound.
I am also not sure if i saw two flashes of lightning for a very short period to the south around midnight as i first wen't out and i was making my way up the hill.
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Wish this type of weather would wait until autumn or winter because although i like windy weather as much as thunderstorms i can see this causing some issues overnight.
I don't think i have known there to be 50mph+ gusts forecast inland during August, that is going to cause quite a bit of tree damage.
Annoyed we didn't just get the thundery weather we were suppose to get because that would have been less worrying and more enjoyable particularly at this time of the year with trees still in leaf.
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Even the stuff for tonight has been downgraded since yesterday evening.
We had a 40% risk yesterday but now its only 20% and the only place a higher risk exists is Scotland yet again.
Very fed up
with how the models are dealing with next week as well as they have completely changed from what they were showing just a few days ago.
Not that I am surprised mind you, I knew it was going to happen as it always does.
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2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I guess if the stats about a rapidly warming planet are on point then we shouldn’t be surprised to see models predicting more violent storms, like they are doing for next week and beyond. But we’ve been here before, and usually it’s downgraded to a moderate risk of something less remarkable, then on the day something usually scuppers it
Quite a few charts on here overdo many things with the weather.
Quite often wind forecasts for example are way overdone with gusts alway's showing 70mph+ yet it almost always ends up just being 30-40mph, and this is just at a day or so out.
So I highly doubt these charts will verify, and I don't wan't them too either because it would be way overboard and not needed and for interesting thundery weather you only need storms to be able to produce a decent amount of lightning and not golf ball sized hail.
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Looks like we are one of those places that are not going to get much sun today.
We had sunny intervals this morning but now this afternoon it's become very cloudy and can't see us getting any hotter than the 23C we got yesterday unless this cloud shifts.
Thought we were on to get at least well into the mid 20's today but right now under this cloud it's only 21.9C.
Hopefully we will get something thundery tonight to make up for it.
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Are we the only place in the UK that hasn't got much sun today?
This afternoon it's become very cloudy and can't see us getting any hotter than the 23C we got yesterday unless this cloud shifts. Thought we were on to get at least well into the mid 20's today.
Hopefully we will get something thundery tonight to make up for it.
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Got a max of 52mph on the coast cliffs yesterday here using my handheld anemometer.
The wind was constantly blowing in the 30's during the mid part of the afternoon.
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Got a max gust of 17mph at ground level in the garden however I went to the cliffs between Aberporth and Tresaith yesterday and had a gust of 52mph on my handheld anemometer.
There was a small period of time where there were many gusts in the 40's.
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59 minutes ago, Nick L said:
It'll be tomorrow morning when it's too late. Just like they did with Eunice.
There is good enough model agreement for gusts of 60+ in SW England and Wales. That alone warrants an amber IMO, especially with all the holidaymakers and trees in full leaf. One day I'll give up trying to understand their thought processes.
Hang on, is that for inland areas?
Quite worrying if thats the case, I can say right now with trees in leaf, winds of that level are going to bring a lot of trees down.
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Only had one or two day's of thunder here so far this year.
Going to be the worst year I can remember for thunderstorms if things don't change soon.
Even last year had more thunder by now and that was a rubbish year in itself.
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22 hours ago, Tamara said:
Its a good question.
Velocity potential (VP) convection anomaly predictions have persisted with the idea of convergence shifting across the Central Pacific to return a more classic El Nino synoptic response. Much of discussion analysis has been focussed on this - quite reasonably so.
Over recent weeks these predictions have backtracked a few times, putting back the shift in the low frequency signal. Its worth looking at a water profile across the tropics in this respect. This first image below is almost a week old, but very little has changed. The most intensely anomalous heat is focussed across Indonesia and relatively limited spread also across the Western Pacific. Strong trade winds persists at, and east of the dateline (shaded blue on Hovmollers plot in the third image). Convergence therefore mimics a more La Nina feedback pattern. Look where the main VP200 anomalies (shaded green) lie on the respective plot on the second image. The core is a long way further west of a typical El Nino convergence feedback & with suppression (shaded orange) at and east of the dateline.
With so much heat in these areas well west of the dateline, it does call into question the vivacity of this El Nino, when repeated predictions of eastward progression of tropical convergence and associated westerly wind bursts is being delayed and watered down each time.
The implication of that is the synoptic pattern response is bogged down with Nina feedbacks overshadowing the ocean base state El Nino transition.
This type of oceanic > atmosphere feedback increases the likelihood of return to La Nina much sooner than has been widely anticipated and goes some way to further answering the longevity of the Nino disconnect as discussed already in much detail. In turn explaining the forcing from upstream which has been delaying synoptic upturn for N Europe at the same time as trapping heat across S Europe (Thankfully Portugal has had enough Atlantic influence and effective air con to avoid the worst of the July heat to date).
The numerical models in response to these delays is to water down the expected split flow solutions across the Atlantic & Europe in extended modelling and retain the more retracted pattern which feeds downstream troughs across N Europe at the same time as the Azores/Atlantic ridge is withdrawn. This, rather than a ridge extending fully NE and then the split flow creating cut off lows behind it - which in turn create the ability for warm air (heat) advection northwards.
Clearly, with these spatial wind-flow and VP200 anomalies in mind, it is worth exercising caution with forecasts and keep watching the discussed developments upstream.
It's interesting to think about why these two words were given for these different patterns as el Nino is the boy and La Nina is the girl in Spanish.
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Autumn 2023
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
And the worst thing about it is that it doesn't seem to make a difference to the amount of thunderstorms people get.