wimblettben
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Posts posted by wimblettben
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Just had a look out of some of our windows and the clouds do look a bit more unstable looking compared to earlier with some more bulky looking cumulus around so maybe there will be something this evening?
Hope it holds off a bit so that nothing happens until it gets dark though as I wan't a nighttime storm.
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5 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:
Nay bad at all! Direction of travel is NNE so Dorset looks best for this batch. Watching for further developments to the south and east of this line for those of us a little further east.
Looking at how crap my photos are from last night, I'm seriously hoping for another chance tonight!
Good luck everyone.Already looking like another fail then by the looks of it for here.
Unless another system of storms magically forms miles further west then I can see it being just another repeat of last night only more earlier.
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Doesn't look particularly thunder-stormy or unstable looking here at the moment.
Most notable thing so far has been the wind with a 32mph max gust on my handheld anemometer whilst on my walk up the local hill.
Annoyed about last night though as that was our best chance of getting some nighttime storms, and I worry that even if we get something this time it's going to be daylight and too early for any nighttime stuff.
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Rubbish disappointing night here with all of the action many miles east of here of where it should have been. Thought it was just a general bust for the whole of the UK around 2:00AM only to find out when checking the forums that there was a huge line of activity over central England so not only was I upset but I was also envious.
We must have better chances this afternoon or this evening and night though surely, especially as we are in a 50% risk zone.
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4 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:
An interesting forecast from Estofex putting Ireland and parts of Western Wales under a level 2 Warning
Looking at the UKV a band of heavy rain/thunderstorms will make its way through the uk and Ireland at around 10pm, However a lack of CAPE may impede how electrically active this system can become
However, should this system be able to remain active some strong shear and SRH values as well as very low cloud bases (under 50m in some parts of wales) could help create/enhance the threat of QLCS tornados within the line, however once again the lack of CAPE partially puts me off this idea. Still this definitely looks like an interesting event that could help start a week of (hopefully) some good storms, im not sure how much the above average SSTs will help this event or whether the line will even have enough energy to produce lightning but i will keep an eye on the radar. Hoping everyone here will get some good storms this week
Haven't had any thunder so far from the rain or showers the last few day's so am hoping that tonight bucks that trend.
Mention of lack of cape and that is making me worry though, we haven't had any night storms so far this year and this stuff tonight could finally give us that. I wan't lightning and I don't just wan't it to be a repeat of last night where the only risk was heavy rain with some strong gusts of wind or a tornado risk.
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I wonder what places Miserable Marla will choose to play with next will be?
I hope we get some chances of more widespread thunder potential in September as it has been quite isolated and infrequent so far this year for most people and it would be nice for more people to get some thunder before Autumn and Winter proper arrive and severely lower the chances of getting any thundery weather.
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Unstable and thunder clouds Pictures I took on Monday evening.
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Pictures Of Thunder clouds from Monday evening here which bought some distant rumbles.
The biggest vertical cloud with the most spread out iced top and that was in its dissipating stage was the one that produced the closest and most frequent rumbles of thunder.
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Pictures Of Unstable Clouds I took from midday yesterday and the late afternoon and evening as I walked up our local hill.
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Pictures Of Unstable Clouds I took from midday yesterday and the late afternoon and evening as I walked up our local hill.
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Some latest GFS models are showing possibly thundery rain when the heat calms down a bit but the problem is most models just bring in cooler northwesterly's but without any rain.
Really hope the GFS is on to something here as it will bring people the first proper period of thundery weather we have had so far this year but it will also bring much needed rain for many areas.
If when this heat calms down it just gets cooler but doesn't produce any rain then I can see there being a lot of unhappy people not just from storm lovers like myself but also for most people because of hosepipe bans increasing and the landscape starting to really suffer. Most especially in the South and Southeast.
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Some latest GFS models are showing possibly thundery rain when the heat calms down a bit but the problem is most models just bring in cooler northwesterly's but without any rain.
Really hope the GFS is on to something here as it will bring people the first proper period of thundery weather we have had so far this year but it will also bring much needed rain for many areas.
If when this heat calms down it just gets cooler but doesn't produce any rain then I can see there being a lot of unhappy people not just from storm lovers like myself but also for most people because of hosepipe bans increasing and the landscape starting to really suffer.
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2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Cheers for the update Rob,always look forward to your Noaa analysis...looks very positive.
The GFS 6z looks pretty darn good for next week and very warm perhaps Hot at times. Beyond day 10 we see strong Heights towards the NE/E and with a low being in evidence towards the West we could again see an heat pump being drawn from the South!
Summer ain't done by a long margin,and I'm feeling similar trends could go into September!
The futures Bright...the Future is orange and no that's not me advertising a mobile network
Probably will bring hardly any thunderstorms again though which is what I find so depressing and sad even though theres going to be nice and dry, hot proper summer weather and not atlantic dross like we usually get at this time of year.
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2 minutes ago, Peachy said:
Please don't get disheartened guys about the recent lack of storms. The heat of late has just been too dry to kick-start any thunder storms.
Good news is that we are fast approaching August. Now is the time when we enter high humidity. Perfect for creating the storms we all crave.
I'm convinced we will see some crackers over the next few weeks.
I hope you're right peachy!
In fact I think we all hope you're right at this point because it must be starting to become just too depressing to bear much more of these let downs.
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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Really regularly incorrect forecasts now
I know!
It seems to keep changing from one day to the next these day's and quite often a number of different forecasts will all be saying a different thing from each other on the same day.
Never no what to even expect anymore or whats going to happen from one day to the next as it keeps changing so much.
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1 hour ago, Harry said:
Most models suggest lightning potential for southern/southeastern coastal areas mainly before appearing to hit a fairly strong westerly flow and shunting almost due east across N France/Belgium as a fairly strong looking MCS type feature. I think there could be some heavy outbreaks of rain (been humid feeling again today) across a broader area but lightning much more limited in coverage than the precipitation indicated on models.
PJB on UKWW pitching a fairly wide area of the thundery showers over much of C/W UK.
Well the Met Office does have a thunderstorm warning covering areas of the southwest up across areas of south and southwest Wales so they must have some confidence of more inland and western areas of getting some storms.
Hopefully we will have a round two tomorrow for us here because we did have some distant and close on and off thundery mid-level showers on late Tuesday morning and early afternoon and I saw one cloud to ground strike but the thing is they were very brief and so it wasn't quite enough for me yet to be 100% satisfied.
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23.0c currently with 42% humidity in my room which was once a garage turned into a room.
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I'm just currently hoping for the low to come in at the right time, preferably during the evening or night because the heat left from the day just gone will provide a big kick for the storms and it will deliver amazing lightning displays that people will actually be able to see properly because its dark enough.
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Amazing to think that temperatures are going to be in the 30s celsius in about 4 days time as temps are struggling to get above 17c at the moment and it got down to 5.5c last night.
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Very mild out there at the moment!
Hasn't dropped below 18c so far and its 18.7c degrees currently with 81% humidity.
Assume it has to do with the high to mid-level cloud that came in yesterday evening thats keeping the heat of the day trapped underneath.
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Very mild out there this evening here!
Hasn't dropped below 18c so far and its 18.7c degrees currently with 81% humidity.
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1 hour ago, NUT said:
You would think with all the heat that will inevitably build it will go BANG could be some absolute humdingers around
Hopefully it will be widespread as well and not just affect London and the southeast like its done all through this year so far.
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2 hours ago, Josh Rubio said:
Not often anyone wishes for this but roll on the downgrades!!
This has gone beyond ‘just for fun’ territory now. I advise anyone ‘wanting’ these temperatures to come into fruition to have another think.
Yes.
Lower the heat but increase the humidity so we can have temps in the 20s or 30s celcius instead but have a much higher chance of thunderstorms.
At least that way it won't be too extreme with the heat to cause infrastructure problems, wildlife and human deaths but we can have the fun of thunder and lightning along with the much needed rain that a lot of places could do with now.
Thats my wish at the moment as we have had a poor year for thunderstorms so far and this projected dry intense heat won't do anyone any favors.
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35 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Way too early at this stage to be talking about storms. I remember the day the record was broken in July 2019, models weren't really showing storms at all until very close to the day itself and a lot of storms broke out across East Anglia if I recall.
GFS is obviously off on one but a lot of members do end this hot spell with a plume. Most likely scenario after the mid-week cooler interlude... heat building at the end of the week with temperatures the following weekend in the south getting to the mid-30s and possibly high 30s.
Well I personally don't wan't this heat coming off if its not going to produce any amazing storms afterwards as its not worth going through all the horrible heat if we don't get a great reward of thunderstorms as it breaks down.
It's only worth going through these types of temperatures if it produces incredible thunderstorms as far as I'm concerned!
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I can't believe my luck these last couple of day's.
Loads of people in the country already having several day's of the odd bit of thunder and at least two days or nights of good epic storms and here I am still with absolute zilch!
Might of had a few rumbles from some heavy showers this afternoon but it's hard to tell as it was so infrequent and we get so many airliners high up in the sky flying past.