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Seasonal Trim
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Posts posted by Seasonal Trim
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I'm sorry to admit that I find it so funny when the models start firming up on something other than what the MOD thread wants. "The toys, the toys, would somebody think of the toys!"
On a serious note, although I love it when it's cold and seasonal, I'm only interested in the models when there's snow involved. And so far nothing, and I mean NOTHING in the reliable has shown any snow.
This is why the old short range model thread was my go to thread. Unfortunately, nobody was interested in what the weather was most likely to do. Only following snow charts post 10 days which never leave 10 days!
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Nothing like the smell of schadenfreude in the morning. Love the MOD thread. Long may it continue.
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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
There’s “more than comparisons “ to 2010- if some aren’t seeing it.. they need their glasses
Agreed. There has been some major 2010 comparison ramps over the past few days. This is not going to be a major event as it stands. And nothing like 2010 other than maybe the direction it comes from.
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59 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:
It’s painful reading the mad thread, it’s like lemmings off a cliff, happens 2 or 3 times every year
Great charts at 168+, that day after day stay at 168+. Then if we are fortunate to get past that, lower res shortwaves find some way to spoil it. If you only look at t+144 charts , once or twice a day I think that manages expectations !
But if you ask them, no-one's getting carried away, no-one's mentioned 2010 and no-one's going to throw their toys out the pram when this all eventually goes to pot.
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"What's wrong with people on here? Don't you know that the cold is still there at day 10 and beyond! I don't really get what the moaning's about. It's almost like you've never experienced day 10 cold before!"
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As much as I love reading the madness in the MOD thread, I'm still nowhere near getting excited for any sort of cold spell. I'd still only give any meaningful cold a <10% chance of occurring as things stand. And this is based purely on all the meaningful cold still being out of the reliable atm.
If things are still looking good <120hrs then I might raise an eyebrow. Until then it's still a case of "once bitten, twice shy" for me.
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2 hours ago, Rayth said:
Does anyone have the link to the model output thread in the lead up to winter 2010? Been looking for nearly an hour now, would be very interesting/educational to see how things developed
Mods . Please move to an appropriate thread if needed, didn’t know where to put this initially
Unfortunately, I don't think it exists anymore.
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Used to love this thread in my early days on this forum. Until I realised that snows progress across Europe doesn't matter a jot to what happens on our tiny Island of the edge of the Atlantic.
Seen a fast growth, slow growth, growth right up to the border of France and growth in every direction.
But nothing that indicates whether we're gonna get anything for us.
Such a shame.
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Still got the fan on in my room!
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41 minutes ago, Chesil View said:
The thing is there have been so many winters when the early teleconnections looked promising for cold/snow in northwest Europe and the uk that I rarely give them much credence any more, sucked in too many times. Even remember bbc weather doing special videos on why cold was more likely this time round only for mother nature to stick two fingers up within a few days and say nah.
In my opinion after 50 years of winter watching the really key factor in terms winter weather for us is how the polar vortex sets up and then how and if it moves or gets broken down (reversal etc) for me all other parameters are trumped by this.
El nino or La Nina, if vortex says no then it's no. If the vortex says yes then were in the game but only in the game.
After that then the other parameters may have more of a bearing on how a cold set up might form.
But unless the Vortex plays ball we ain't in the game.
Yep, after many many years of Cold/Snow chasing, I've finally got to the point where I take no notice of long range forecasts and teleconections. Even the age old "pattern matching" is on the ignore list for me.
Keep an eye on the short to medium model range and maybe take notice of trends shown further out on multiple models. And learn which posters to keep an eye on vs the rampers/nonsense talkers.
Edit: Sorry, just realised we're in the ENSO thread and not the Autumn thread. Feel free to move Mods.
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Wow, it's better than before!
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Yeah, as above it's every thread. It all loads but takes 10-15 seconds.
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Is it me, our is the forum running slow this morning?
Not my Internet as everything else is fine. I'm on android.
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30 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
Still looking warm to me into the new week- showers yes and possibly longer spells of rain for some. I haven't seen any 'denial' at all about this. The debate was about whether it would remain warm despite turning more unsettled- and this looks like being the case.
The Met Office have upped their temperature predictions for my area over the weekend now. That's despite one individual insisting constantly that temperatures would be in the mid to high teens in central areas. That was never going to happen in a warm airmass.
Show me a post that says it isn't going to be warm. All I've seen are posts saying it's going to turn unsettled, with temperatures remaining average or slightly above!
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We're at a 19:49 sunset in my neck of the woods tonight. That's down from 20:48 at the beginning of the month. By this time next month, we'll be at 18:40!
Just goes to show how fast we lose the light at this time of the year.
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Well Ladies and Gentlemen, we have finally reached the last day of Meteorological Summer and Autumn is but hours away.
Looking forward to the first frosts, foggy mornings and the hunt for cold. Autumn/Winter is the best time on these forums (personal opinion) and I look forward to all the coldies coming out of hibernation to join us for another few months for the chase.
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28 minutes ago, Don said:
There's still time for heat lovers to chase!
Of course there is. Not much chasing going on at the moment though. The MOD thread's deader than Posh Spices music career.
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I forgot how quiet this forum becomes at the end of Summer/beginning of Autumn. Not much for the heat lovers to chase and nothing on the horizon for the coldies.
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First night for a long time we didn't have the fan on in the bedroom and I actually woke up to a bit of a chill. Can't be more than 10° outside!
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In our caravan in Clacton and was looking forward to a good storm. Alas, it's all passed to the west of us and we've had zilch!
This has got to have been the worst Summer on record so far.
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7 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:
Need to get rid of those areas of HP to our West then that's been there for so long, get the jet stream running back through
I'm personally struggling to see this anytime soon
Don't worry, come Winter the HP will shift from the west and the jet stream will come shooting through.
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It's funny how the common argument in the MOD thread is, "You're wrong, this is what's going to happen." "No, you're wrong and just typing what you want to happen." And so on and so forth.
It's weather! You're all wrong and all right until it actually happens!
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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
@Paul please can we have a short range model thread? I'm not interested in + FI charts, and that's all that seems to be discussed in the main thread. I'm sure others would agree that a <144 thread would be ideal.