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Seasonal Trim

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just a quick point for those new to the forum and those with a nervous disposition.

    From now until the first snows fall, the models are going to bounce around on every run. North, South, East and west. Shortwave may pop up out of nowhere and snow may come and go on every run. Even up until the day nothing will be 100% assured.

    Try not to fall into the emotional roller coaster that comes with every run and just enjoy the ride no matter how it ends. 

    (It never ends!!! )

     

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 3

    Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Sounds like your instincts regarding how cloudy it was, was right on the money. The darn sunshine shield lol.

    All about not keeping your expectations too high really when it comes to things like the weather and their models/forecasts/charts. 

    Bib. Learned this the hard way. Took me a decade of following things on this forum to expect the worst case scenario and you'll avoid disappointment.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    70% of getting the cold in at 192h. Call me absurd I was laughed at & mocked when I said the chance of a shift to easterlies was likeky a few days ago.

    192 is still fi as well. And we still haven't had an Easterly yet. If and when we get an Easterly then you can crow about being right.

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Don said:

    One big model roller coaster ride and there will be plenty more this winter I'm sure!  At least we have interest this year compared to other years when models are just showing weeks of zonality! 

    I've been on this ride for many years now. I'd say following the mod thread is more like being in the queue for the roller coaster, with all the excitement and anticipation waiting for your go, watching all the other riders on the coaster enjoying themselves. When eventually you get to the front of the queue you realise it's just a tea cup ride!

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, LRD said:

    That goes for the ECM46 though, too, right?

    As another poster previously said, what is the point of long term models if we are now saying that an entire long-term suite can be thrown into disarray by one fresh signal 12 hours later... as snowking was suggesting yesterday?

    I think the science needs to be pursued and persisted with and technology improved on these long rangers so they get better and better (in other words, I don't think the concept of seasonal modelling should be thrown in the bin cos they're often quite wrong). But I thought they were looking at big picture drivers to be able to look longer term and not be so swayed by short-term or isolated signals picked up 12 hours later. If we are saying that they can be swayed by short term and isolated signals (the butterfly effect in action, I guess), then perhaps I'm now beginning to be swayed in thinking that they are a waste of time. Which is a shame

    The more accurate the models get, the more they'll resemble the actual weather we'll likely get, which in turn would probably kill this forum.

    The truth of the matter is the likelihood of this Easterly occurring is still in the single digit percentage range. Anything passed the 144hr mark is still always going to wildy fluctuate.

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