liam300
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Posts posted by liam300
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Needs watching though. You wouldn't say that about something coming in from the opposite direction.
I would look at it relistically and that imo seems to far out to look, especially with our current forecast. not providing any conclusion.
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Did someone mention a low?
We cant even tell 96 hours ahead let alone further out.
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Again the outlook doesn't look good for the central southern regions because of the pressue from the atlantic, hopefully it will shift south and west slightly to provide more opportunity.
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Guys,
Any chance of getting the model times please?
Should of saved them yesterday
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Sorry can somebody re-post the chart timings please?
Should of saved them yesterday.
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I bet he's wrong. Why would they modify it, when they didn't last night?
If anything the UKMO has more support for the 96/120 time period than it did last night.
NOGAPS looks in support for it also.
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Its seems every day we are flipping backwards and forwards through models, which is really playing with out emotions
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Well netweather have a 90% risk of snow for next saturday.
ooohhh i like this chart as well!
Yeah for Scotland maybe.
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I'm sorry, but to say there is NOT a ''TREND'' to milder conditions in ANY of the models is simply not true.
as is clearly shown by the Ensembles, which (and lets face it) have been showing a return to milder weather consistently ...I'm not saying this will be the case, but to say there is no trend across any of the models is a very blinkered way of looking at things and only sets one up for disappointment later down the line.
If this isn't a trend...I don't know what is(even if it is in FI)
Although there is a trend, wouldn't it still be unrealistic because will be in FI around 240 hours.
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Always could see the Atlantic fighting back somehow, as the models briefly picked up last night. Disappointed by the 0z op as blocking doesn't isn't holding out, leaving gaps. Hopefully runs today will change but could always see this happening especially as the time (fi) would consistently be moving back for a cold event.
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I would say the 18z is a downgrade in regards to 850 pha as the pressure keeps the -4 to -6 away from the east and south east. This is around the 28th - 29th, although +144 shows potential
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IMO i think it will be colder but not exceptionally cold, especially for myself on the south coast. Today has not produced the best of charts with the low NE of us, although the building blocks are certainly there. There isn't much correlation between all of the charts which is positive, fingers crossed the blocking will hold out for long enough.
Hate the high pressure around the Azores that could stop it pushing across the UK.
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Well at 144hrs it's better but not by much
We have found a new trend I think, and that trend is telling us the cold (proper cold) will be delayed.
Things are looking fragile compared to last night, but perhaps better for a longer cold spell
Keeps delaying, is it actaully going to happen. Its now in FI now
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Over a week to go to 'realtime' for the REALLY tasty charts - detail will change run to run over coming days - with these developing synoptics could easily shift south somewhat, in reality.
Keep watching!
More concerned with the influence of the atlantic, how far will the GH push it south?
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i'm very happy with this run as it has all the classic ingredients needed for a good cold spell these mainly being high pressure to our north and low presseure to our south acting like a well oiled machine to advect those cold uppers to our shores!! This is awesome model watching and in total contrast to last year http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png!!
Exceptionally bad for the south coast from this run of lows over the south.
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FI = Fantasy Island that's like 192 hours and beyond.
Pub Run = 18z GFS usually known for throwing up mad charts.
Thanks for your help
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Sorry im confused with this terminology and what these mean?
Liam
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ECM is all about looking NE with the huge block coming out of Siberia. For me signs that this episode will not be a prolonged cold feed through Dec.. Something to watch, GFS collapses the pattern in deep FI, which of course is just that and we haven't got into the pattern yet so not reallly worth worrying about too much.
BFTP
This is contradicting what everyone else is saying, a lot of people are saying this could be good for the long term.
Can anyone clarify?
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whats going on here then?.....
Thats called a new ice age.
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Unrealistic ?
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Can you explain why this isn't good enough for snowfall?
Everything seems to be in place, even the jet stream. Sorry still learning?
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Jet stream heads all over the place around the 4th od december which could be a good indication, then for a few days it stays south into southern europe.
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It's not even winter yet!!!!! We still have lots of autumn to get through so things will change. How can you say comments like this when not even the most experienced forecaster can predict this far out
Would recommend looking at the model output thread. Most models show 10 - 12 days of average weather, with the inclusion of a further two weeks after showing no cold fronts. This would rule out November, but obviously cannot comment on further months, so in some respects i can agree with ths comment.
Model Output Discussion - 28th November
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Sorry guys have we got any charts available to check the blocking? Heard mixed vibes in here last few days, of how its not as strong as expected etc...