JP1972

Great post there Damianslaw. So come on, you're one of the more knowledgable chaps on here. What is your take on events inside the next 7 days for the north of England? Can you pinpoint where might or might not see some snow come next weekend?!

Now you go and wash your bloody mouth out my boy Joking apart you could of course be right, so much disagreement etc. But as a Newbie but been watching for a few years, my limited experience has taught me that when the models are up in the air then normally that's a good sign. Not because it's showing what I want to see, but I'd side with the ECM and have done for a couple of days now.

I think OON's irritation threshold lowers by the day!!!

OON is hilarious :lol: Paul is not far behind with the wit though mind!

Ian Brown Post Deleted By Osbourne One-Nil On 2 minutes ago. Because you're boring. Haha, that made me laugh very loudly

Be nice if one of the Forum Hosts/Mods or experienced forecasters could give us an update on how the upcoming cold spell might pan out for us

It was -3 here at 7:30am this morning and we still have patches of ice and frost in areas sheltered from the sun. A beautiful, crisp day and to be followed by a freezing night tonight.

Back on topic I'm assuming I have chosen probably the worst time to start model watching!!! The word 'confusing' doesn't even touch the sides!!! Having 'watched' for the past couple of winters I always got the impression that model scatter and uncertainty was a good thing from a cold weather pov but this curent stand off is testing everyones patience now surely.

At last some cold and frosty weather to make it feel more like winter! About time but very welcome regardless of timing.

Can I take this oppportunity to thank a few people in here who have taken the time and effort to provide me with a forecast based on what the models are showing etc., very much appreciated. Of course I hope the ECM wins out, not only because it brings snow predominantly to the eastern side of the country (including me ) but it also means a colder evolution overall. And lest we should forget, those in the NW of our region/country have already seen snow this winter so now it's our turn Oh one last thing, if you think OON is a miserable owd fart, shout and scream at the top of your voice and clap your hands Only kidding OON :blush:

Paul deletes anything and everything Not good enough I'm afraid - try harder :lol:

Cheers Nick. Yeah I guessed the ECM was pretty good for us in the NE! Was just wondering what the likelihood was of it verifying. So you'd say about 40% right now?

So on a scale of 1-10 (1 being poor) how excited can we be right now (likelihood of the ECM verifying)?! I assume we're looking at 9 days away (according to the ECM) before the true fun and games may start??

Sorry to ask what might seem like a silly question. All you knowledgable ones among us all, if you had to stick your neck on the line right now which model would you back to come to fruition and why? Thanks.

The fact that the ECM has stuck to its guns gives me hope that this model has got the situation nailed.

Can I make a request if I may please Moderators/Forum Hosts etc? Can one or all of you post your thoughts on what the models mean to us here in Northern England on a daily basis please? Not wanting to sound like a pain in the I have a problem but so much of the Model Thread is IMBYist it's ridiculous. They are chasing the Holy Grail that is the Easterly when for parts of Northern England an Easterly, North Easterly, Northerly etc are actually just as favourable for winter synoptics (if not more so) than what them buggars in the South east are chasing after! Just a thought because it would also bring a nice (and from my point of view) welcome change to know what the models are suggesting for our/my area and will also abet my learning of how to read models. Thanks. Mark.

That'll be when the PV splits at this bloody rate!

Unless you're having a bath with a model, this is seriously off topic.

I'm 40 in October, no doubt I'll be as miserable as you pretty soon Just a suggestion because it would make learning easier and quicker for dumwits like me!

Would it be possible to set up a thread which is solely used by the moderators, Holmesy, Nicholas Sussex, TEITS, Chino, GP, RJS, Kold, Damianslaw, OON (the miserable sod), SP1986, Anyweather and the experienced gang, to get an objective slant on what the models are showing please?

Lack of agreement is a sign surely that change is definitely afoot and the models are struggling to pinpoint what the outcome will be? FI must be 144 right now ...

A pleasant dry day today which makes a lovely change. A dry, fairly mild and settled week ahead in store which will allow the sodden ground to dry out ... ... ahead of the snow the week after

Oh dear. Never have 21 words been more likely to put the mockers on things Goddammit!!! But wise words thereafter, the potential is there but level heads required right now. If the models can flip so favourably so quickly, the same could be said of the other way round.

Flaming Nora, as things stand the Mods will need to introduce a 'cartwheel/triple somersault' smiley And I'll tell you something else for free, if this change comes about as per GP's insistence then this bloke needs to be working for the Met Office! Caution obvioulsy still needed but what a turnaround in the models and let's not forget, the past couple of years the best synoptics that have evolved and come to fruition have done so with great speed and fluidity and at relatively short notice. Make you wonder if it's ever worth looking past 200-240 ever! More runs and more fun please ...

Blimey, just goes to show how (after late November/December) mild winter 2010 was! How many air frosts did you have in 2009 just out of interest?