JP1972

Wind picking up and rain now falling. Tell you what, if we can't have snow then for me this is the next best weather type. Very wintry out there without any of the white stuff

Thanks Phil, much appreciated.

So are we waiting for this low to pass to kind of get a picture of what will happen from next weekend and beyond? If so can you explain to a newbie like me why please? Thank you.

Sorry to be so thick but is that showing a raging Easterly? Cheers.

Alza. When did you have one day of falling snow in 2011/12?

I personally find that 16-30 day outlook often covers a number of potential options. If the models can't be relied upon at that range why should the MetO 16-30 day outlook be taken with any degree of seriousness? Very frequently in this thread we are advised not to take anything too seriously what may or may not occur in FI, so why do the MetO produce a forecast for this range? It does flip flop and I've seen it do it which again brings into question why produce such a forecast in the first place.

Quite agree with this. The models don't give any indication with any degree of accuracy what will happen 10 days from now, so why people get hung up on a MetO outlook stating what will happen 4 weeks from now is folly. In fact at the risk of incurring some wrath, why the MetO persist with this 16-30 day outlook is beyond me knowing what we all know about modelling and FI etc. A 16-30 day outlook would be fine for the Spanish MetO in the summer months as the weather is pretty constant. As we all know, here in Britain things are not the case.

TWS. What are your opinions on GP/BFTP's thoughts of possible NE/Easterly influences in say about 4 weeks time? I ask you as I have been lurking on this site for about 4 years and these guys do interest me with their thoughts, but I don't know what their verifications stats are - and I have followed your posts for the whole 4 years!! Cheers.

Newbie alert :w00t: Going to head up to Asda in about 15 minutes or so, so will experience some pretty hefty gusts no doubt. The wind appears to be picking up again now after a lull for much of the afternoon. What's this about a possible snow event over the next 24-36hrs? Keep safe everyone, however the models are suggesting we could be in for round two next week.

Thanks Nick, I don't know why I haven't signed up sooner to be honest! Funny how the teleconnections are almost saying one thing 'should' be happening but the models are hell bent on saying something completely different.

Slightly off topic so apologies in advance! First post but been visiting for ooh about 4 years now, mainly in winter it has to be said! Very green at all this and a lot of respect for the Murr's, Nick Sussex's, John Holmes's to name but a few. You all do a brilliant job at keeping novices like me abreast of what's going on and what we might expect. Anyway back on topic now and I have to say a very interesting and exciting period ahead in terms of model watching. I have to laugh at how in the space of a week we have gone from a zonal express to something a little more interesting. If the situation can change so much in such a short space of time I think it's possibly best to keep an open mind as to what the models have in store for us in the days and weeks ahead.