JP1972

OON and Reef. Just goes to show what a mild winter we've had so far. We had a frost here just a mile from the city centre of Newcastle last night showing just how chilly it was last night. Here's hoping the remainder of winter gives us all something more seasonal to discuss

As I said yesterday, too many people are banking on GP's forecast to be right (which many of us including myself would like to be the case) but then allowing this to cloud their judgment when reading the charts. Goose chasing to continue until either a) summer arrives or B) winter arrives. At present it's a huge leap of faith to suggest anything wintry is likely to occur on the scale people appear to be expecting and/or wanting.

I think we have to be realistic here, it's akin to pulling hens teeth but the hen keeps running away. We only seem to get occasional glimpses of joy at the far end of the runs which come no clsoer to fruition. I know writing off cold/snow chances for this winter would appear to be premature, but days turn into weeks and weeks into months without any tangible signs of anything wintry on the horizon. Personally I'm inclined to give up chasing the dream because no models are latching onto anything wintry for the foreseeable unfortunately

The wind has died down considerably here now and clear blue skies all afternoon but jolly chilly!

You say we have plenty of time on our side but the days are starting to get longer, and seeing as (at present) there is absolutely nothing of wintry interest on the horizon you have to wonder whether we will run out of winter before the SSW takes effect on our weather. That's if it has any bearing on our weather at all. So far we have had only minor interest at the 240 stage, which stays at 240 when it actually appears at all. So being realistic it's not improbable that this winter delivers nothing more than we've already had in terms of wintriness and only continues to deliver what has already gone before (cold zonality favouring hills and mountains).

Wasn't there a 165mph gust in Scotland during last weeks windy spell?

I've got to put the bins out and can't say as I'm looking forward to it. Torrential rain and severe gale force winds. Wish me luck!!!

So how come the ECM sends us to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow but the other models don't?

Some pretty strong gusts here in Newcastle now but just transient showers so far. Quite a windy night/tomorrow coming up according to the forecast, so anything weakened or dislodged from the recent strong winds may well be flying through the air shortly!

As a lover of various weather types and not just wintry cold and snow, yesterday was great. Obviously not to the extent that sadly some people lost their lives yesterday but the stormy winds sounded fantastic in my location and I'm surprised I didn't see more damage than just some dead bits of tree strewn across roads and pavements. Anyway, all calm and clear now. Will the next major talking point be mid-month as cold and possibly snow edge closer? January could turn out to be a very interesting month ...

I'm of the opinion that while the models are 'unsure' then change is definitely in the offing, which route they take is clearly up in the air then. Obviously many of us would like cold and snow but the blessing is that we have something to talk about at long last after a fairly mediocre model outlook for so long in terms of seasonal weather. It would be quite remarkable if mid-month does see the 'change' as this would tie in with GP's thoughts. And should this be the case I'd certainly like to learn more about his methods as it would be an interesting learning curve.

Even to my untrained eye that looks like a potentially superb chart if cold and snow is your thing. But best to throw caution to the wind at this juncture, we're not even at the 'close but no cigar' point just yet.

Nice post to keep things realistic there Nick. Nothing worse than logging on to see wrist slashing the morning after, when the next run doesn't build on the previous one.

Dunces question so apologies in advance! So are you saying that we would perhaps be open to Northerly interludes or a full blown Northerly lasting x amount of days. Short snaps or spells I suppose is the question I'm asking? Thanks.

Well come on, where is the Population of Northern Scotland thread? I did enjoy the maths lesson though, very informative!! Looking at the models and post from S Murr et al it would appear patience is very much key at present.

Perhaps a bit of a weak comment to make but ... Surely looking at the bigger picture and the winter season thus far, a change to a colder set up further down the line would have to be more likely than not based on law of averages, particularly bearing in mind the Strat warming. Or am I talking tripe?!

I have to admit that I'm pleasantly surprised at how a pattern change appears to be happening rather quickly. But as you rightly point out December 2009 is proof that a relative rapid evolution can occur. I'm inclined to believe that what we're seeing is what IS going to evolve.

In a word, 'no'

I assume nothing east of the Pennines though Danianslaw?

Rain with a smattering of sleet mixed in here today. Very chilly!

Tomorrow will be a truly effing miserable day as I'm back at work There isn't a chart in FI that could possibly cheer me up!

It seems the hopecasters who vilified Ian Brown for stating a couple of weeks ago that a mainly zonal pattern was in the offing for the foreseeable owe him a huge apology. Still the hopecast posts continue, folk talking of slow splitting of PV etc. Let's face it, we are no nearer the PV splitting and an ensuing bitterly cold pattern emerging than we were at the end of October for heavens sake. I'd still like a model thread which discusses what the models are showing up to T240 max ONLY and not discussing what MIGHT (but usually doesn't) happen afterwards. It's the only way newbies like myself hope to learn.

Perhaps it might be an idea to have a seperate thread for T168+ or T192+ maximum. Therefore comments on FI would only be read by people like myself trying to learn the models should they choose to venture there. Just a thought, but at least that way we can discuss what is likely to evolve rather than what some would like or hope to evolve. And novices like me can learn quicker ...

Quite agree with you, here in Newcastle it's blowing a major gale at the moment. But as you say, people are only prepared to post about one weather type that isn't on the charts at the expense of what is happening right now in parts of the country. Never mind, I'm sure when strong winds or cold and snow are nailed on for the south east the thread will come to life

Newbie question. Are we suggesting that the building blocks are beginning to (look like) they are falling in place for a colder set up are we just talking tentative signs that building blocks might be laid?