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Everything posted by Froze were the Days
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Froze were the Days replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
August 2020 was pretty warm!...average of 17.7c was the warmest I think since 2003!...sadly I feel a hot August and possibly into September will do diddly squat for our chances of a chilly winter, but then again you could say that about anytime leading into Autumn for the last 9 years! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Froze were the Days replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Largely but not in February as we know, still didn't stop the Winter from being largely mild!...it's feeding off what cold air there is around Greenland currently but that's becoming less and less, makes you wonder in 10 years time what the Atlantic will be doing, very little I'd suggest. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Froze were the Days replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On the latest ECM rum nothing changes out to day 10...still the same pattern...high pressure to the south with a strong ridge from the south west and a weak Atlantic far to the north west. The Atlantic sure is a 'weakling' this summer! -
Heard distant thunder and had a total of 2 minutes of large rain drops but that's been about it. Have to agree with the poster above, I'd be very surprised if we don't get at least one more heatwave before August is out, one thing that has surprised me is that the last month has produce little in the way of easterlies here (which most summers we do experience) and there always seems to be a gentle pull of westerlies which I feel is playing into the hands of further hot spells as the Atlantic is doing absolutely diddly squat other than if you live in the Shetlands or Outer Hebrides!
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I can take the heat when on holiday in a dry heat country such as the Greece with AC in the hotel...but it's a totally different thing when you have to live in it and the house is hot. Not looking forward to it in the slightest and nor will my 2 scottie dogs!
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Is there any rain in the forecast?...haven't had rain here for a few weeks, lawn is looking just like hay!
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Competition: How hot is it going to be?
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
39.8c Heathrow, Tuesday 19th -
Rightly so - looked like one of those forecasts from a few days out that would be 'dodgy' though...higher pressure to the north with a weak trough to the south but I saw 2 Beeb forecasts yesterday (1 a local one) and both seemed fairly confidence of cloud and showers by afternoon, further north in the region drier. Wouldn't surprise me if tomorrow goes the shape of the pear as well (generally does when it comes to T-Storms). Don't forget these people are 'professionals' and get paid...it's all very well predicting Atlantic conditions.
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Latest ECM run develops low pressure over southern/south eastern UK which will translate into fairly cold wet and miserable for a few days...still find it amazing how we struggle even at this time of year to get a cold air mass over the country...last February was the last time IMBY but that largely only affected to the south and east.
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Problem is even if the ops get worse too often pre a 'prospect' of an easterly posters rely heavily on means or ensemble members showing them what they want and as we all know these change in a blink of an eye. At a certain range you could see this easterly was going to fail...GFS and ECM ops were pointing away from it.