Froze were the Days

I wonder what the sunshine stats have been like in the south east for the last fortnight? must be about 5% of the average at a guess, I can only remember a few hours back on the 22nd after we had that frost and since then the odd glimpse of the current bun. This has easily been the worse Xmas period I can ever remember!

The run up to this Xmas and Xmas day and Boxing day has to be one of the worst I've known in my lifetime!...endless grim days with drizzle or rain, I woke up at 9 this morning but easily could have been 2 or 3 hours earlier it was that dark, roll on Spring if this is all Winter has to offer! P.S. Other than the dire weather hope everybody is having a good one!

All the best in your 'full' retirement Mr Fish you've deserved it...many good memories!

Give me good ol' Ceefax again for the weather ahead or even the farmers Sunday forecast on BBC...you never got your hopes up back in those days and just depended on some words for a further outlook. In these times too much information and models are at hand, shame they couldn't just go out to 5 days like the fore-mentioned!

The Last week where I live (Essex coast) we've had a total of a few hours of sun which is pathetic and seems to epitomise recent winters, November wasn't too bad - largely dry with some sunny days but this December though not overly wet has been gloomy and depressing. The outlook into the New Year looks no better and possibly becoming quite wet. So this coupled with Covid again is thoroughly depressing going into 2022!

You have to have a right old giggle! latest CFS run wants to continue the blocking into the New Year after recent days of wanting it gone ASAP after Xmas!

To quote Mr Churchill: 'Never in the field of human meteorological model watching was so many charts, runs, ensembles posted and viewed by so many with any remotely cold snowy outcome for so few' What a shocker the last week or so looks like becoming! To be honest last winter wasn't bad but always got the feeling in the now 'GW Winters' with the synoptics of 20/21 we would have had a colder snowy outcome more nationwide not just that week in February (in my back yard) - perhaps just not enough cold air on tap at certain latitudes now days...

Not at all surprising!...latest ECM run has drifted away from cold. That for 'some' above will be on high ground to the north or Scotland. Towards the New Year not looking at all good.

Not sure if it was the ec46 but I have defo seen a recent forecast chart of pressure anomalies that forecast a black hole towards the Scandinavia region which to a degree stretched towards the UK predicting a dry more or less HP dominated Xmas spell - 100% surely others must have seen this?, only a couple of weeks back!

Last EC46 update a couple of weeks back was showing a big high pressure anomaly in the Scandinavia area (almost black hole)...so that wasn't very accurate, always take these with a pinch of salt!

Spot on!...no cold air in the mix until you head towards Scotland/northern England.

I wish we wouldn't keep seeing that short wave off the Norwegian coast...a permanent feature, stops even colder air getting nearer to these shores (UKMO 144z). You just know the GFS will back off now.

8 or 9 times out of 10 it's usually the GFS...

GFS is so different to ECM on how it handles the low pressure system at around 98-120z it's laughable (on both 0z and 06z runs)...

So much for the heralded high pressure Xmas period which now looks increasingly unsettled...also the ec46 forecasts of a 'black hole' anomaly near Scandinavia - currently looking woefully wrong!! remember those of a week or so back? A few usual suspects on the mad thread have been banging the cold drum of late (not for the first time) though the models have been more up and down than the Blackpool big dipper although some water to flow under the bridge current signs are certainly moving away from a cold Xmas period though not mild, something akin probably to the chilly damp fest already experiencing of the last few days. Just glad I didn't get sucked into it too much as I've been busy but might have been different into the New Year.

Where is 240z?

Although there is a lot still to be decided a trough over Scandinavia won't be a pattern that hold on that long though...much preferred heights in that region stretching westwards with the jet further south.

So we've now gone from red anomolies over Scandinavia (or near) to now a large trough in a week...

ECM 0z easterlies and wintery nirvana even in the south but mean at D9/10 suggests cold outlier, then we have 12z run which isn't that much different with low heights to the south west (not sliding as per the 0z) bringing somewhat milder conditions into the south but the mean suggest almost at the top as a mild outlier at D9/10. So I'm banging my head thinking what the hell would be the mean at D9/10 be then? these outliers always do my head in! Sorry gone off on one when eyes on18z...

Yes Tom! brings back memories 40 years ago of that epic 8th - 13th snowy spell with drifting and accumulations of up to 10 or so inches here. Evening of the 13th we had blizzards here but temporarily turned to sleet/rain but then back to snow which lasted on the ground until Xmas/Boxing day though patchy in nature and quite foggy around that time if memory serves me right. 8th - 5-6 inches of wet snow (started as rain) 11th - further couple of inches added 13th - Blizzards which briefly turned back to sleet/rain but another 2-3 inches accumulated with drifting.

Latest CFS 1 monthly 0z run looks very promising in the Xmas - New Year period...blocking galore.

and dry!...happily take that over the Crimbo period.

Nothing showing on the ECM...height rises somewhat to the north by D8-9 only to migrate back to it's usual position is my take on things though no doubt with some frost and days becoming chillier again. I have been watching the CFS 9 monthly runs of recent weeks and to be fair showed something similar for some time now - in fact up to the New Year when the Atlantic tends to slowly takeover and zonal in nature.

Yes Xmas day and Xmas Eve 2020 was fairly cold but the run up bordering on very mild...thereafter colder towards the New Year followed by the abysmal January where here it rained and rained and was fairly cold at times.

Getting the feeling this month is turning out to be similar to last December (well in my neck of the woods anyway) - a cool/chilly start slowly getting progressively milder towards mid-month, what happens thereafter is anyone's guess but as Xmas comes into sight rarely does cold conditions come onto the agenda...