Froze were the Days

Looks like my succinct post of a couple of days ago has beared fruition...in fact looking even less likely of any continental influence from the much scoped period of 5 or 6 days time. As Squeakheart mentions above we'll see those hunted synoptics turn up in April, you can almost count it down.

I think we can put this 'easterly' to bed now...largely going by todays operationals it's becoming less likely, might at best get a slight continental influence but that's about it. I'm sure we'll experience a proper north easterly once we get into April! and by then contemplate what will happen next winter, if the world is still revolving with all this madness going on.

Well it is when you cherry pick the best perturbation...that never comes to pass, as long as the ECM shows some hope! As the above post mentions if the GEFS isn't interested in an easterly/continental flow there is hope! rubbish model!

You really are grasping at straws perturbations clutching never leads to much, ECM operational still gives some hope...but I wouldn't bet your mortgage on it!

Unfortunately although the jet is further south over the Atlantic it then just wants to go northwards and no splitting looking likely. This probably would be the final insult of this winter or early spring or whatever you want to call it.

Yuck! horrible today...if it's not high pressure on the scene or blowing a gale with a roaring jet stream you can guarantee it will be gloomy and drizzly!

As I said yesterday the models flipping around like a fish out of water...looks like there could be some sort of blocking initially a brief period to the north near a weeks time but no real cold associated uppers thereafter high pressure to the east and the theme of today is more of a southerly or south easterly flow rather than yesterdays east or north easterlies. I'd take it all with a pinch of salt.

As usual the models are flipping around like a fish out of water if there is a chance of an easterly...probably be gone in the morning

Well as the 'Hunt for Cold' comes to an end for the Winter 2021/22 it's been about as non-existent as the hunt for:

A lot of fence damage and large boughs down but not seen any trees of note down driving around the area...local power network says estimation of 14.30 to 15.30 to be back on but I won't hold my breath Going around with the candles last night I thought I was in a Victorian play either that or back in the 70's again!

The joys of storm Eunice - not on the level of Burns day storm or October 87 (never thought it would be) but yes the power cuts have exceeded those!! 24 hours and counting...and I'm living in Essex not the Orkney Isles!

Real big gust just came through! 59 mph on Kestrel 4000...hair getting battered even with product in

Mine's usually a handheld Stella but on a nice warm sunny day over 20c... Clouded over again, another couple of hours until strongest gusts.

Just had a gust here on the Essex coast of 51mph with my hand held Kestrel...skies clearing and feels somewhat windier than an hour ago!

BBC really giving it the biggun' currently on the news!...saying only gusts up to 70mph across the south now, perhaps that's why there isn't a red warning across many counties in the south?

Isn't 965mb deeper than previous runs and ecm 0z run? and isn't GFS meant to have a better handle within 72hrs on such tracks of low in that timescale?

Saying that Just seen the MetO YT forecast and seems a bit more conservative...and forecast for my area not as blustery as BBC website (50-60mph gusts) but were keeping an eye on further developments. The low on this particular forecast 'most likely track' slightly further north through Rep of Ireland and then North England/Southern Scotland.

Those are gusts on the BBC website...

BBC Lunchtime 1.30pm forecast with Chris Fawkes said 'potentially' could be one of the worst storms for the last few decades' with associated winds widely from 70-100mph gusts...not sitting on the fence there! 100mph gusts mainly towards the south west exposed areas.

BBC website - the 'king' of understatement now has gusts to 71mph around midday on Friday...since the internet days (roughly Millennium onwards) I've not seen windspeeds for my locale (Essex coast) that strong on that site!

add Essex and Suffolk as well...

Seriously whose saying that?...nobody has stated Oct 87 was bigger than Burns 90' or likewise, the point I've made is that 15/16th October 87 was a standout storm for those in the south east which will be unparalleled before and probably some distance into the future to those who lived in that area from E/Sussex up to near Norfolk and yes effected a smaller area to other storms but thank god it happened largely in the wee hours otherwise the fatalities we have been far higher.

Not misleading anybody...I'm stating that the October 87 storm in the south east is almost on a different parallel to storms that have been (in my lifetime and what I've read from the 1900's) and possibly experience in the future certainly for the south east (Essex), My initial post on the 1st page replied to one saying 'Anglia could witness gusts and damage to that of 87' from Eunice. The post from Rozzi was more pointed towards my statement of a 'once in a century event' and that due to the complexity and randomness of the weather this could happen more often than once in a 100 years which in turn is certainly possible but not in my location and as stated certainly not on the strength of 1987 3 times in a month - with the rise in SST's and GW we 'could' get more frequent destructive storms but have to admit I haven't seen an increase of notable storms over the last 20 years as opposed to the previous 20. My post was related to location as we know as mentioned up north a far greater chance, and not comparing storms to top trumps.

3 times in a month not on the scale of 87!...here in the south east October 87 was the strongest winds recorded last century so not going to be on that scale more chance in the Hebrides/Orkney Isles or further north where storms are far more prevalent. I can remember February 90 which had a very strong jet and there were a few storms with winds in the 60-80mph category and not forgetting the Burns Day storm in January. Anyway somebody just contacted me and heard a hurricane was on the way...:)

Not going to happen...Oct 87 was a once in a century occurrence (though could happen for this century). I woke up at 6am on the 16th and apart from nearly being decapitated by a flying slate from next doors barn the wind took my breath away never mind me being able to hardly stand up it was that intense. It will be downgraded or as per usual the low will move on a more northerly track.