Froze were the Days

Totally agree...okay saying it was an outlier might have been a bit too head strong but I've seen this before from the GFS not giving up on an idea until closer to the time until it switches with it's tail between it's legs! A passing glimpse of the Am shot into Europe is the form horse and thereafter who knows but the Euros not leading any sustained cold at all.

Well it is towards the backend of the run...anyway these individual runs mean nothing, 12z will change from this particularly in the medium term and then you'll get the ensembles backing it up or close to the mean. I never for some reason trust the 06 or 18z (no surprise there) over the 0z or 12z runs for any form of verification... I wish there were only 2 GFS runs a day.

£500 of my money says 06z run is a cold outlier...we always seem to get the odd OTT run like this! we can fantasise over these type runs as a few liked to quote yesterday...ECM nothing like this.

No problem at all particularly if there are a number of other perts along the same theme but when it's a rogue one I see it as a bit 'pointless' and a -20 northerly? if you believe that but then the GFS comes out with some over the top modelling at times or outcomes, what would us 'coldies' do without it? as another poster said it's there to fantasise over or as another has pointed out to amuse over, Keep the comedy coming!

After looking at this mornings runs 'Limpet High' is the first thing that comes to mind, ECM brings little joy and in fact is a snooze fest whilst naturally GFS tries to bring in a bit more amplification and the odd brief Am plunge (mainly a glimpsing shot). As for the cherry picky perturbations...when has a rogue really cold one ever come to fruition? pointless...

Nice dry run almost right through the GFS 12z where I live in the south east but dreadful for anything remotely cold only exception maybe in the far north at times...still getting the feeling that January will be a write-off.

GFS dets slowly going off the idea of a dominant GH/strong mid-Atlantic ridge for a period...no surprise there, all looks a bit 'so so' to me.

Still not seeing anything to raise an eyebrow...yes the odd Pm/Am incursion maybe post D10 but seems Heights to the south generally persist in one form or another, pretty standard January fayre. I can't help think a number on here have been 'persuaded' recently by a brief spell of a dominant Greenland heights towards F1 on some recent GFS runs that something is around 'the corner' - yes we're far from a powerful jet and low after low moving through the UK like some Winters but our weather isn't black and white and just as we're not seeing that strong jet stream it doesn't mean we're in for a period of blocked conditions. Nothing to get excited about...time left on the clock as we're not even half way through Winter, and as of the last decade February and early March have bought far more joy for wintryness in my back yard than both December and January which have been poor over the last 10 years!

The pre-Xmas surface High was situated near or just to the east and then slightly to the north with a slight easterly in southern areas...that led to a few days of miserable dull conditions and drizzle...nobody can call whether that will be a clear frosty or a dull high pressure system next week, but not mild by day for sure.

I'm not seeing anything from the ECM dets that point towards the GFS outcome post D10...okay doesn't mean the euro is correct at a certain point but I know where my money would lie.

GFS not even worth sweating over at this range - once we get nearer the D8-10 mark and ECM starts to sniff otherwise it's a case of

It's the GFS...say no more, that will take you up the garden path...looks different to the D10 ECM det, particularly 06z

Another set of largely underwhelming charts...maybe the odd toppler but that's about it! At least looking dryish in a few days time.

FI shows low heights over the Azores and into the Med which all 'coldies' would want but all we have is a lot of MLB...knowing our luck associated with a lot of cloud but not overly mild and the predicted theme of moving away from a Greenland High being dominant delayed. That's if you believe the current GFS output! Just seen the above post from BFTP...so what will it be then? strange soundbite to make, a damp squib of a winter it is then!

lovely morning here for once, clear skies, frosty (-1.2c) last night now the horrible bit, it's clouded over!

Worrying that the GFS is fairly consistent with a colder signal post day 10 (with Greenland heights becoming the dominant feature)...latest 06z run looks very different around D9-10 to other runs and loses the HP signal close to the UK but still gets there to a degree in the end (somehow). Latest ECM still shows a lot of energy running around the high at D9-10. My guess and it is a guess that the signal for colder conditions in a day or two's time will be dropped! it's all eye candy presently and that's all it is...

But on a positive note dry but on a negative no doubt cloudy!...if there is no alternative for the foreseeable I'd rather have this than a raging jet stream and rainy day after rainy day - not much to go by I know!

Never expecting anything now...but going by the ridiculous +NAO anomalies we've had for over the last decade it currently ain't looking good for this Winter. January has been terrible in my neck of the woods and no doubt others over the last decade only 2013 could be described as a worthy wintry January. If we're not going to get anything remotely January 'worthyness' then dry and mild with some sun will do me!

...and then south as the limpet High fails to regress northwards. Run after GFS run for days now with no HLB is always a worry ( a majority of winters we do get something to look at in FI), yes we have the odd Pm incursion. Doesn't look like a 2013/14 with no powerful jet on the cards but the continuation of lows well to the north and heights somewhere near the UK or to the south is hardly the stuff of dreams!

A bit late...I'll go for 5.5c please!

Looks just a repeat of D5 (120z) to me...in fact if you looked at D5 and no further then that looks even more promising but even that gets flattened!

Dreadful since just after mid-month, had one or two frosts but all in all another forgettable December...that's 11 now since 2010 which have largely been poor, just 2017 saw a brief cm or so of wet snow that lasted nearly a day on the ground.

Run after run on the GFS without any HLB is fairly ominous at the moment, okay we get some Pm bursts at times and a possible brief Am airmass in a weeks or so's time which will no doubt be watered down but nothing noteworthy. Certainly in a worse place than this time last year.

I bet it's not far off my guesstimation for the last 10 days though rather than the whole of December!

Another diabolical day to add to the numerous ones since roughly just after mid-month...what a dreadful period of weather.